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这些年,我听私募吹过的牛
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Topic: 这些年,我听私募吹过的牛 (Read 122 times)
MBtuborcar
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这些年,我听私募吹过的牛
July 02, 2017, 08:57:44 PM
#1
原标题:这些年,我听私募吹过的牛
如果一位职业投资人自己做起了私募,我们通常会认为,这位私募一定是有几把刷子的。要不然,在竞争如此激烈的市场,压根儿是不敢自立门户的!其实,在私募这个江湖,要做得好超级难,但要进入这个行当,门槛倒不是特别高。要不然,也不会有两万多家私募。越敬畏市场的私募,往往对市场理解也更深。这样的私募,更值得关注。他们管理的私募产品,也更值得投资者购买。
一般来说,私募管理人都是在自立门户前投资做得不错的,要么在公募基金早有名声,要么自己做股票做得风生水起。然后,这些职业投资人就越来越自信。投资高手们内心一定是很自信的,对自己的投资能力没自信的人,很容易跟随市场的噪音而随大流,这样不大可能把投资做好。问题是:自信并不等于狂妄甚至藐视市场。
还是在11年前,一位所谓的民间投资高手,自信满满地跟我说:我选的股票,如果未来两年内不能涨两倍以上,那就说明是选股出了问题。而且,这位自称为投资高手的人,眼中是瞧不起一般人士的。他的同事、朋友甚至领导,99%都入不了他的法眼。他的这种自信,不如说是自狂、自恋,甚至可以说是藐视市场。然后呢,这位仁兄2008年亏了个底朝天,把代客理财的资金都亏掉了60%以上,想想也是醉了!
还有一次,在2008年金融危机发生之前,一位私募管理人在办公室指着自己的股票池,自信满满地说:你看看,今天指数和大部分股票都是跌的,我的自选股90%都在上涨。原因就在于,这么多年来,我慢慢摸清了股市运行的规律。听者不禁愕然。如今,这位私募管理人清盘了自己的产品。
更有一位私募管理人,在他业绩好的时候,自信满满地说:这个世界上,一万个人中大概只有一个人适合做投资,这个人就是我!如今,这位老兄的私募基金虽然没有清盘,但业绩确实是很一般。
自信和敬畏市场是两码事。职业投资人理当自信,因为自信是独立判断的前提。但自信任意地发展下去,就变成了自狂、自恋、自大。反映在人际关系上,就是瞧不起周围的所有人,所有人的水平都远不如他,所有的人都不配跟他谈投资。反映在投资上,就是认为自己的判断永远都是正确的,即便市场实际走势已经证明之前的判断错了,还是顽固不化,索性一错到底,丝毫不懂得反思和敬畏市场。
即便是巴菲特、索罗斯、彼得林奇这些投资高手,在市场面前也不得不老老实实承认自己永远是小学生。那些藐视市场的私募基金,要么是还没有掌握投资的“法门”,要么是人格不健全,要么是纯粹为了拉资金而瞎吹牛。
越是真正的投资高手,越明白市场的水有多深,越是会敬畏市场。这样的私募基金,更值得投资者关注。
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