ASIC - BTC meltdown?

The assumptions:

1. Mining capabilities will increase significantly in the next few months because of BFL and Avalon units,
2. The approximate used price for GPU cards is about 1Gh/sec for about $500-600 bux (e.g. 5870 x 3 x 160.00)
plus PSU,ram,cpu and motherboard ($300) Estimate 1k for 1 Gh/s of BTC mining power.
3. The asic units will make it easier to acquire BTC (for those who own the units) - causing a short term spike in
successful block and supply of BTC
4. Assuming BTC = approx 100USD
5. GH/sec asic pricing will be 5x cheaper (5 Gh/sec for approx 1000)

Questions

1. is there enough time between now and shipping date to recoup the 1k USD and mine perhaps 20 BTC with
the above ?

2. the supply of BTC will increase with radical increasing in mining power (in the short term) - will this drop
the price of BTC ?

3. will used GPU market implode.?

4. will it be cheaper to speculate in the BTC/cryptocoin markets rather than GPU mine?

Thanks for your time

11Blade