Should long term holders sell before August 1st?

[Esphere.in]

How many do you have?

around 45

Am i seeing this correct,did you say that you are holding 45 bitcoin,that is a huge amount of money right there,book some profit and make sure you invest some in other good projects and hold 20% of your assets for the future even if the scaling is a mess ,just do not panic as i hope everything will be fine pretty soon.

[bamboylee]

I would say that do not fear the FUD but I am not in your situation. I only hold small amount compare to you OP. If you are that afraid, then dump it. You are the only one who can decide on this, in the end it is your money on stake.

[d5000]

Being a long term bitcoin holder i am little scared.some people are even saying bitcoin might fall to zero after August 1st.is that even a possibility?should i sell my bitcoins to cashout profits and wait it out? or should i keep holding?

In my opinion, you should closely follow the news.

There are three possible scenarios:
1) Segwit2x succeeds. Then you have nothing to fear and you can keep your Bitcoins where you want (in your wallet or on an exchange), although some here don't like that solution. You can track the adoption on http://coin.dance/blocks. However, be warned that the transition is a bit complicated - what now is showing up as "Segwit2x support" is only an informal "signalling" without consequences. It gets interesting around July 21 when signalling for BIP91 begins. If BIP91 gets rapidly to over 80%, then Segwit2x is basically through.
2) Segwit2x fails, but BIP148 gets more than 50% of the hashrate. This may be a possible outcome if Craig Wright decides to block Segwit. In this case, most probably we will have two chains: the Segwit chain and the legacy chain, and maybe the often-cited "Chinacoin" if Bitmain releases a big-block chain. However, if BIP148 has majority support, I think you are safe on that chain because it most probably will have most of support from Core and the users and price should recover fast after some turbulences. Still, I would recommend you to transfer your coins to a real wallet before August 1, so you can sell also your "Chinacoins" if you want once both chains are cleanly separated.
3) Segwit2x fails, and BIP148 fails, too. This scenario is the most bearish of all, because we will have uncertainty which chain is the longest, and very probably the Bitmain fork will take place and even get some support. In this case, I would chose fiat. How to know if that will happen? Simply look if on http://coin.dance/blocks Segwit2x support goes under 70% and at the same time on http://www.uasf.co/ less than 20-25% are signalling for BIP148 (actually, it's about 10%).

[ChainSmoker]

Being a long term bitcoin holder i am little scared.some people are even saying bitcoin might fall to zero after August 1st.is that even a possibility?should i sell my bitcoins to cashout profits and wait it out? or should i keep holding?

In my opinion, you should closely follow the news.

There are three possible scenarios:
1) Segwit2x succeeds. Then you have nothing to fear and you can keep your Bitcoins where you want (in your wallet or on an exchange), although some here don't like that solution. You can track the adoption on http://coin.dance/blocks. However, be warned that the transition is a bit complicated - what now is showing up as "Segwit2x support" is only an informal "signalling" without consequences. It gets interesting around July 21 when signalling for BIP91 begins. If BIP91 gets rapidly to over 80%, then Segwit2x is basically through.
2) Segwit2x fails, but BIP148 gets more than 50% of the hashrate. This may be a possible outcome if Craig Wright decides to block Segwit. In this case, most probably we will have two chains: the Segwit chain and the legacy chain, and maybe the often-cited "Chinacoin" if Bitmain releases a big-block chain. However, if BIP148 has majority support, I think you are safe on that chain because it most probably will have most of support from Core and the users and price should recover fast after some turbulences. Still, I would recommend you to transfer your coins to a real wallet before August 1, so you can sell also your "Chinacoins" if you want once both chains are cleanly separated.
3) Segwit2x fails, and BIP148 fails, too. This scenario is the most bearish of all, because we will have uncertainty which chain is the longest, and very probably the Bitmain fork will take place and even get some support. In this case, I would chose fiat. How to know if that will happen? Simply look if on http://coin.dance/blocks Segwit2x support goes under 70% and at the same time on http://www.uasf.co/ less than 20-25% are signalling for BIP148 (actually, it's about 10%).

Out of these 3 scenario as an estimate which do you think will be most probably happen? and which is the best scenario which should happen for the good of future of bitcoin?

[Meuh6879]

BIP149 after.
https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0149.mediawiki

[lucasjkr]

No possible way it would fall to ZERO, I don't think. There MIGHT end up being two competing chains, but you'd have coins on both chains and could then decide whether you want to add to or remove your position in one of those coins after that date.

I will note, I've 'diversified' into a couple others, just in case a fork causes people to panic, especially if one of the teams decides to take their ball and go home rather than continue working to make their fork the more popular one.

[d5000]

Out of these 3 scenario as an estimate which do you think will be most probably happen? and which is the best scenario which should happen for the good of future of bitcoin?

Well until the Craig Wright speech on Future of Bitcoin I thought Scenario 1 (Segwit2x) to be adopted sure. For the moment, there is overwhelming support from miners and businesses. But it seems there are forces that would try to combat Segwit adoption (Craig Wright announced that he maybe will buy hashrate to block it).

So at this moment I think we have at least 50% of probability for scenario 1, but 20 to 30 percent for each of the both scenarios with chain split. UASF BIP148 is picking up a bit, so it could succeed (Scenario 2), but a "confusion scenario" where there are two or three chains with no one clearly dominating is also not unlikely, given the still pretty hostile atmosphere in the debate.

I for myself would favour Scenario 1 clearly because it's the only one we have at this moment where no chain split would occur. I think Segwit2x is not ideal but it's a reasonable compromise.

[Vishnu.Reang]

IMO, the Bitcoin prices will crash only if both SegWit2x and BIP148 fails. And in my opinion, the chances of that happening is less than 1% right now (this can change in the coming days, though). So I don't think that the long-term holders need to sell their coins.

[DrGuns4Hands]

why be afraid if bitcoin could actually rise again if ever the price of bitcoin price drop. I'm a long term holder and have some 10+ but still i wont sell my bitcoins because i know what bitcoin could actually do . so if all long term holder sell before august 1 do you think bill gates will sell his investment in bitcoin ? ofcourse not . because he wouldnt waste his time for that.

[dquancey]

I'm honestly in 2 minds, I've no idea what to do. Even after reading the thread, I've not much idea.

Fiat, alts, BTC, mixture I don't have a clue. Nobody knows what it will bring.

I don't think hedging with alts would be a bad thing, only a small percentage, but might be worth it.

Will be keeping an eye on this thread throughout the month.

[socks435]

I don't think if what will be happen in the month of august but i still believe that we see more good result about activation of segwit..
We will see a large pump will happen in that month that i think if you sell your bitcoin before august 1 you will be regret soon and miss the opportunity to make any profit in that month. so for me i still hold bitcoins to make a good profit after august 1..

[Ardolafat]

I don't think if what will be happen in the month of august but i still believe that we see more good result about activation of segwit..
We will see a large pump will happen in that month that i think if you sell your bitcoin before august 1 you will be regret soon and miss the opportunity to make any profit in that month. so for me i still hold bitcoins to make a good profit after august 1..

Yes now we are very close to August so better to hold our coins till that point of time and lets see what happens as everyone is speculating that price will go higher and if it does then that would be the best time to sell bitcoins to gain higher profits.

[harizen]

Being a long term bitcoin holder i am little scared.some people are even saying bitcoin might fall to zero after August 1st.is that even a possibility?should i sell my bitcoins to cashout profits and wait it out? or should i keep holding? i want to hold bitcoin for another 4-5 years.so if the bitcoin prize falls after August 1st which is a very high chance then will it ever recover? what's the safe thing to do?

The moment you bound yourself for a long term holding, you already accept that you will deal in all the risk involved that will happen in bitcoin while you do holding. August 1st scenario is part of it and this will test your decision making skills.

Look, the output maybe price will decrease but on the other hand, it doesn't erase the fact or chances that price will go up more. Play gamble here mate because when you sold your coins and price increase thereafter, it will give you regrets, same as if you hold your coins much then price crash happened afterwards. Both ways have worst scenario so if I were you, I will put my bet based on my own positive thoughts.

[richardsNY]

I'm honestly in 2 minds, I've no idea what to do. Even after reading the thread, I've not much idea.

I personally don't do anything, other than having a decent amount of fiat ready to be put in action at the time the price tanks heavily. If alts weren't really overbought as they are right now, a decent plan for worried people would more or less be the following -- 50% BTC, 30% LTC, 20% fiat. I would even advice Dogecoin. At this point it's not worth it to take any sort of position into altcoins. If you plan to take action, choose to liquidate a part of your coins and get fiat in return.

[Vishnu.Reang]

If there is a sharp spike occurring before August 1 (i.e BTC over $5,000 per coin), then the users can consider converting a part of their BTC holdings to fiat. A correction is likely to follow, and they can buy back their coins at a lower rate.

[Wind_FURY]

Why it's hard to believe?i bought most of my bitcoins when the price was 450$ and if the split do happens then how will i know which will be the dying chain?i think safe is too just hold till one chain completely dies instead of taking a risk of selling a coin in 1 chain which may result in selling a coin in surviving chain.

I am sorry but I did not mean to offend you. But put yourself in the reader's point of view. A newbie account saying he has 45, 50 or 100 Bitcoins could easily be a troll would you not agree?

I gave you the benefit of the doubt though.

[logicgate]

I don't think if what will be happen in the month of august but i still believe that we see more good result about activation of segwit..
We will see a large pump will happen in that month that i think if you sell your bitcoin before august 1 you will be regret soon and miss the opportunity to make any profit in that month. so for me i still hold bitcoins to make a good profit after august 1..

I am agree with you that can't sell your bitcoin before the first august because if the activation of segwit in August its will cause in price and its price will be more increasing , and those person sell it before August, you are right they lose their money in high amount so those people want that his money is goes to increase he need to hold and wait to August 1. And I am sure they get more profit and you will be in first of all.

[Bagaji]

Being a long term bitcoin holder i am little scared.some people are even saying bitcoin might fall to zero after August 1st.is that even a possibility?should i sell my bitcoins to cashout profits and wait it out? or should i keep holding? i want to hold bitcoin for another 4-5 years.so if the bitcoin prize falls after August 1st which is a very high chance then will it ever recover? what's the safe thing to do?

Despite the fact that there are so many speculations and rumors all over about what will become the market value of Bitcoin after 1st August meeting increase or decline? To this question one cannot completely rule out both the negative or positive outcome. But despite the fact that there is panic all over of what become the market value of Bitcoin after 1st August not to the turn of Bitcoin declining to zero

[MBW_2]

Being a long term bitcoin holder i am little scared.some people are even saying bitcoin might fall to zero after August 1st.is that even a possibility?should i sell my bitcoins to cashout profits and wait it out? or should i keep holding? i want to hold bitcoin for another 4-5 years.so if the bitcoin prize falls after August 1st which is a very high chance then will it ever recover? what's the safe thing to do?

Despite the fact that there are so many speculations and rumors all over about what will become the market value of Bitcoin after 1st August meeting increase or decline? To this question one cannot completely rule out both the negative or positive outcome. But despite the fact that there is panic all over of what become the market value of Bitcoin after 1st August not to the turn of Bitcoin declining to zero

So many speculations around  bitcoin price on 1 august.. I  expect big whipsaw not only with bitcoin price also on altcoin markets. I will sell my bitcoins whenever  price hits 2800$ before 1 august .

[john2231]

Being a long term bitcoin holder i am little scared.some people are even saying bitcoin might fall to zero after August 1st.is that even a possibility?should i sell my bitcoins to cashout profits and wait it out? or should i keep holding? i want to hold bitcoin for another 4-5 years.so if the bitcoin prize falls after August 1st which is a very high chance then will it ever recover? what's the safe thing to do?

I think its not possible that the price can be fall until Zero its impossible many people are holding bitcoins if its true right now we are seeing the price drop and sell their own bitcoin before the price of bitcoin drop down or crash..
Since miners allowed to activate segwit it means it can give as a good effect after activation  so we will see a normal growth or we will see burst increase after this coming august.. So holding and buy more bitcoin is a good choice..