The China Hype Fades Away

[bootlace]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news as people tend to go spastic at the sight of any non-bullish news but seems like the whole China explosion people were expecting has fizzled out rather quietly:

Baidu searches for Bitcoin in Chinese: http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2

Google searches for Bitcoin in Chinese: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

Sourceforge downloads: http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline

[smoothie]

...and it's gone? 

[lysr]

China is the last ditch effort of Bulls in keeping the price up.

[fitty]

Are you kidding?

It's been 6 days, everyone who downloaded the wallet, they probably still have another good 8 months until the blockchain finishes downloading. Hang in there, the China wave is coming, and it will be huge!

[thezerg]

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest.  Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner. 

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap.  It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]".  What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet.  You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

[dancupid]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news as people tend to go spastic at the sight of any non-bullish news but seems like the whole China explosion people were expecting has fizzled out rather quietly:

Baidu searches for Bitcoin in Chinese: http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2

Google searches for Bitcoin in Chinese: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

Sourceforge downloads: http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline

Shit - I was pinning all my hopes and dreams on this.

[Cluster2k]

It's not necessarily a bad thing.  The average Chinese speculator chases bubble like everyone else, but with special zeal and gusto.  If they don't get rich quick on bitcoins they'll find something else to inflate.

Example.  The garlic bubble of 2010:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/30/garlic-chinese-commodity-bubble

There were media reports from the time of speculators buying truckloads of garlic and hoarding them, hoping to get rich quick.  The whole bubble popped of course and the speculators rightfully got burned.

[Rampion]

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest.  Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner. 

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap.  It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]".  What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet.  You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

This is very accurate. Process is slow.

[Le Happy Merchant]

When I first heard about Bitcoin, I wanted in that day. It took me three months to do it right. Give them some time.

[BitChick]

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest.  Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner. 

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap.  It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]".  What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet.  You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

This is very accurate. Process is slow.

YES!  This is how it is!  If someone can make an easier way for the average person to get into BTC there will be no stopping it.  Sure there is a learning curve at the beginning, but once we choose to invest it still takes so long and is very frustrating.  I have a friend that wanted to buy but never did because it was too complicated.  She is very smart too and somewhat comfortable with technology, but just getting cash into BTC is not easy.  I would probably have invested even more if it was easier to do so. 

[bootlace]

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest.  Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner. 

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap.  It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]".  What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet.  You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

Do you realize that the search metrics that I linked to apply directly to the first step of your list: "Read about it". For explosive growth to happen you need more and more people start your list/chain and that means the first step is key. The current trend suggests that there is as many people starting your investment chain as there was before the news = the short-term hype is past.

[superduh]

the graph is deceptive
here is the search but for year 2013
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
everything changes.

[jl2012]

They will jump in as soon as the next bubble inflates. Only at that time you will see the huge momentum from China

[cypherdoc]

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest.  Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner. 

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap.  It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]".  What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet.  You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

this is very true.

[bootlace]

the graph is deceptive
here is the search but for year 2013
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
everything changes.

I think it is your graph that is deceptive because it totally hides the rise and fall relating to the time period we're referencing because of lack of space on the x-axis.

[smoothie]

I agree it is a matter of time.

[jl2012]

This is my thread in late Feb when the price was still below 30: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=146768.0

China will play a more important role, but not until the next bubble

[jl2012]

the graph is deceptive
here is the search but for year 2013
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
everything changes.

Google is not a good indicator as it is blocked in China

[bootlace]

the graph is deceptive
here is the search but for year 2013
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
everything changes.

Google is not a good indicator as it is blocked in China

Google is not blocked in China

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap.  It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]".  What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet.  You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

This PLUS way less information available in Chinese, way fewer people to help you, etc. They are at a far less advanced stage ecosystem-wise, though they are getting the news hype a little so it's not exactly like a few years ago in the English-language space, but similar in that there are many hindrances to the casual entrant - even more than the already difficult process for an English speaker.