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菲媒:担心中国?试试从北京的角度看南海问题
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Topic: 菲媒:担心中国?试试从北京的角度看南海问题 (Read 103 times)
Rickyyutong
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菲媒:担心中国?试试从北京的角度看南海问题
July 05, 2017, 07:43:35 AM
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原标题:菲媒:担心中国?试试从北京的角度看南海问题
永暑礁上的海军士兵
菲律宾《商业镜报》7月2日文章,原题:担心中国?试试从北京的角度看问题 自从美国5年前宣布“重返亚太”以来,已有60%的美国海军资产,包括核武船只、潜艇、飞机和导弹部署东亚。如果地区出现威胁和冲突,包括可能围绕台湾、韩国、日本和菲律宾——全都处于华盛顿的安全保护伞之下——的战争,这些军事力量将更快速地部署到位、打击敌方。面对这样的情形,中国会怎么做?加强海军军力,并将它们部署于周边海域,同时在南海的岛礁修建机场,部署防空和反舰导弹,种种做法有正当理由吗?
报道和分析地区安全的多数西方文章存在一个盲点,即未能充分考虑中国的安全需要。流行的说法称,中国这条巨龙恐吓所有亚洲国家,而美国是保护落难少女的白衣骑士。例如,上周国际战略研究中心再度发布有关中国在南海人工岛军事设施报告的观点依然认为中国在南海部署军力没有合法的安全理由。所以,飞机跑道、导弹舱、码头和其他军用设施,只是为了恐吓邻国,威胁航运甚至渔民。西方分析家还渲染中国部署于法厄里・克罗斯礁(即我永暑礁。——编者注)的火箭炮对菲的威胁。但结果证明,这些火箭炮是用来防范可能侵占岛屿的越南蛙人的。在南海部署的雷达很可能具备类似情况——防范入侵者是北京真正的目的,而搜集他国情报的讲法则是西方媒体渲染出的。
总的来说,尽管中国的邻国有理由对其南海军事部署担心,但在评估北京的行为时,全面、公正的分析理应还要考虑北京及其人民解放军必须防范什么威胁。美军的火力和技术优势远超解放军,即便不算美国在亚洲以外的军力,单是第七舰队和分布于该地区的美军部队就具有强大的摧毁力。该评估正是出自美国陆军出资的兰德智库。其2016年8月的报告《与中国开战:想不敢想之事》称:“(美中)两国军队大量集中,彼此挨得很近。如果发生意外事件或危机过热,两国均有动机先发制人。”因此中国在南海部署雷达为可能的冲突做预警也合乎情理。
此外,所有的航运都是脆弱的,包括经由南海运输北京4/5石油进口的油轮。如果美国采取兰德报告所提的战略,即“切断中国的海上石油和天然气供应通道”,那么它们将成为目标。所以,下一次读到西方专家警告中国军事动向时,不妨替解放军的分析家想想。美国转向亚洲的航母、核潜艇、搭载导弹的战斗机中队令他们夜不能寐。(作者里卡尔多·萨鲁多,向阳译)
您看完这条新闻的表情是? 相关新闻 责编:周扬 版权作品,未经《环球时报》书面授权,严禁转载,违者将被追究法律责任。
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