GPU mining still profitable going to Q3/2017?

[antantti]

Biggest threats to gpu mining profitability the way I see it:

1) Degrading miner performance due the DAG
Likelihood: almost certain Consequences: minor 10-20%

2) Rising difficulty
Likelihood: almost certain Consequences: moderate 20-40%

3) Major correction to ETH price
Likelihood: likely Consequences: major 50-80%

4) Major correction to BTC and possible forks price
likelihood: moderate Consequences: major 50-90%

5) Something yet unknown that comes outside of crypto
likelihood: rare Consequences: possible catastrophic, up to 100%

[Nalien]

"rare" consequences, likelihood: up to 100%?

What?


Either way, mining will slowly decline in profitability towards a break-even business for the few lucky people with cheap electricity. The rest will be making losses in the short to medium term again. That's just how markets work.
It may or may not be worth gambling on price increases, but that's only possible for those who do not have to worry about their living expenses.


If you have to worry about whether or not a mining rig will be worth it, you most likely can't afford the gamble.

[Metroid]

It's gameover, gpu mining is over for common people, amd and nvidia with their especial mining cards will kill the gpu mining market. It's asic 2.0. Only farms will get them. It's bad for whales that buy coins because now is harder to forecast difficulty, in the same day the difficulty could increase 1000%.

1) Degrading miner performance due the DAG
Likelihood: almost certain Consequences: minor 10-20%

You got it wrong, that will be 40%.
 

2) Rising difficulty
Likelihood: almost certain Consequences: moderate 20-40%

You got it wrong, that will be 240%.

3) Major correction to ETH price
Likelihood: likely Consequences: major 50-80%

You got it wrong, I think ETH price will increase. It will hit 0.3 btc in few weeks.

4) Major correction to BTC and possible forks price
likelihood: moderate Consequences: major 50-90%

You got it wrong, BTC is going to stay behind.

5) Something yet unknown that comes outside of crypto
likelihood: rare Consequences: possible catastrophic, up to 100%

You got it wrong, If hacks or anything of that sort happens then expect a 1000% crash in few hours and back up a bit around 800% crash and will stay like that for months.

[antantti]

"rare" consequences, likelihood: up to 100%?
What?

Hmm... You know it, I know it.

[antantti]

It's gameover,

I always thought I was the most negative human there exists.

I was so wrong, bensam came. I thought I can still win this battle, some trolling would do it.

But no, this Metroid came out of nowhere.

It's gameover.

[Metroid]

Well, you could say I'm extremely negative or positive cause that is what really happens. Like i said, I really believe eth will reach 0.3 btc in few weeks. However the difficulty will increase around 250% ~ 500% but profit wise all going to hell. If you mine and hold then you have a chance to profit if not then gameover, in the end will be gameover for most of you trolls.

[Bare]

yeah I love metroid, our regular scarecrow for newbs
keep it up, maybe enough of them will drop out of this hardware race so I can get my hands on some 1200w+ psus which is even bigger pain in the as$ to get a hold of than graphic cards, all out of stock everywhere in EU...

[Elder III]

In other news, Metroid was recently spotted moonlighting as Oscar the Grouch.....

[antantti]

eth will reach 0.3 btc in few weeks.

eth doesn't care about btc anymore.

[antantti]

In other news, Metroid was recently spotted moonlighting as Oscar the Grouch.....

Haha, to be serious, I heard somewhere Metroid saying bensam can suck my 1080ti...

[martyroz]

Well, you could say I'm extremely negative or positive cause that is what really happens. Like i said, I really believe eth will reach 0.3 btc in few weeks. However the difficulty will increase around 250% ~ 500% but profit wise all going to hell.

You could certainly say you are extremely negative or positive because you are saying extremely negative and positive things in the space of two sentences.

Saying that difficulty of ETH will increase 250% - 500% within 3 weeks is an incredibly negative expectation. It has increased 46% in the previous 3 weeks (722-1058tn). The nethash has increased 37% over the same period (46-63Th/s). How do you suggest that the world finds 157Th/s of ETH in the next three weeks to get to +250% difficulty increase? That is the equivalent of 5.2 million GTX1070's at 30Mh/s.

Then you say ETH will hit 0.3 BTC. This is quite a positive / optimistic view. I could believe there is a chance that it will triple in value relative to fiat, but to triple against BTC would require market cap going to 75bn for ETH with no movement in BTC. I can't see that happening.

[martyroz]

Here's what will happen give or take 10%:

July 27 Difficulty; 1470tn
July 27 Nethash; 85TH/s

Anyone really paying attention to the numbers (and not the FUD) can see that the gradient of both has peaked and it's actually slowing down.

[smg1902]

Here's what will happen give or take 10%:

July 27 Difficulty; 1470tn
July 27 Nethash; 85TH/s

Anyone really paying attention to the numbers (and not the FUD) can see that the gradient of both has peaked and it's actually slowing down.

Block times seem to be slowly going up though.  Plus there's the whole ice age crap that's supposedly going into effect soon.

[antantti]

You guys still don't get it.

ETH $260 could be $130 when you wake up.

[Metroid]

Saying that difficulty of ETH will increase 250% - 500% within 3 weeks is an incredibly negative expectation.

As per the thread "Q3/2017?" Q3 means July, August and September. Also for eth to reach 0.3 btc, take a look on the price level to actually hit 0.3 btc, just think a few whales come here right now and buy 100k coins at poloniex, what will happen? eth hit 0.2, that is assuming there is not sell, to actually hit 0.3 btc a whale need to buy just around 30k more eth, that is it. So to hit 0.3 btc is very easy to maintain that price is another thing. But then again, if whales pump eth again then think about, yes, others whales will do too, they dont want to stay behind. So it might happen in few weeks or maybe in few days.

You guys still don't get it.

ETH $260 could be $130 when you wake up.

It could but it will not, cryptocoin market is a lot more mature than used to be, whales are not afraid of holding and as long as btc is stable or goes up then eth will go too. Now if bitcoin crashes then eth holders will have a problem.

[nu1mlock]

I'm amazed as to how hard one has to search to find a thread that is more troll than this one.

[martyroz]

Like i said, I really believe eth will reach 0.3 btc in few weeks. However the difficulty will increase around 250% ~ 500% but profit wise all going to hell.

This reads as a few weeks aka 3.

[antantti]

It could but it will not, cryptocoin market is a lot more mature than used to be, whales are not afraid of holding and as long as btc is stable or goes up then eth will go too. Now if bitcoin crashes then eth holders will have a problem.

I say it again, eth doesn't care about btc (or btc about eth) anymore, and btc is far from stable.

What used to be $3.60 (haha) could be $1.80(even more haha) tomorrow.

[antantti]

I'm amazed as to how hard one has to search to find a thread that is more troll than this one.

Search?

I mean it is there when you go to alts/ mining. ))

We will see.