Why doesn't crypto have prediction markets yet? (Yes, I know Augur and Gnosis)

[ranreichman]

Theoretically, all you need for a prediction market is a smart contract with a seller, a buyer, and mediators. Why can't I use an Ethereum smart contract to bet against someone on Wimbledon (for instance) and have 3 agreed upon mediators who get a small commission and decide who won the bet? Seems simple so I'm probably missing something.

[ayurvedicurea2growtaller]

yeah that sound like a great idea but I don't know if people are looking into building it.

[hardtime]

In my opinon here, I'm going to be thinking the only reason that Bitcin / Cryptomarkets don't have prediction markets is cause you're not going to be able to predict these markets, think about it like this -- most of the coins that are big these days are going to be insanely premined already so predictors can only say that these people re going to be able to sell, they don't know when these people are going to make the big move to be able to go and sell. So to put it in short, you really can't predict this market.

[arikassuja]

In my opinon here, I'm going to be thinking the only reason that Bitcin / Cryptomarkets don't have prediction markets is cause you're not going to be able to predict these markets, think about it like this -- most of the coins that are big these days are going to be insanely premined already so predictors can only say that these people re going to be able to sell, they don't know when these people are going to make the big move to be able to go and sell. So to put it in short, you really can't predict this market.

Yeah right they can not be predicted, they move as needed, Like the bitcoin is getting higher, it's unpredictable. And prices tomorrow or next year no one will know, they will move as needed

[ranreichman]

That's true but I'm talking about prediction markets for real-life events. Those are quite predictable.

[Kakmakr]

The answer is simple : Ethereum was not supposed to be used for actual real world applications. It was created to make a bunch of people rich. < The Founders & Developers and people who bought at the pre-token sale after a shitload of coins were pre-mined. The Smart contract feature was just the "promise" to keep the SEC satisfied that it is not a security. It can still be used for all this, but people are too busy riding the speculator feature of the coin to worry about creating any real world applications for it. ^Show Me the Money^    

*joke*

[senin]

Certain predictions about the future of bitcoin after the first of August still exist. Some of them cause concern and fear, others, on the contrary, reassure in the sense that everything will be fine. However, the crypto currency in its movement is little predictable. Many factors influence its development and many of them are almost random. So the events after the first of August are intriguing with their partial unpredictability.