Silk Road Peaks and Troughs

[silkblooms]

Has anyone noticed that the price of BTC and ETH (which seem to be correlated) always goes down on a Friday, down more on a Saturday, then down to a low point on a Sunday before steadily climbing Monday to a high on a Thursday?

I have a theory that people need BTC on weekdays to get their drugs on Silk Road onion site so demand is higher through the week as they procure their powder for the weekend activities.  Everyone is sorted at the weekend and you can't get anything in the post on weekends so demand for coin goes down.  Until Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

This is a definite pattern and I've seen it happen for weeks now.  Every week it's the same and it's already dropped really low today (Friday).  

If this pattern is true then there are short term strategy gains to be made by purchasing loads on a Sunday afternoon and offloading them on a Wednesday night or Thursday morning.  This is particularly noticeable with ETH with low/high ratio as much as 65%

[Palmerson]

I also noticed this pattern, but it is quite easy to explain. At the weekend people relax and any business activity is reduced. Bitcoin price fully depends on the demand so the price falls in the weekend.

[silkblooms]

I also noticed this pattern, but it is quite easy to explain. At the weekend people relax and any business activity is reduced. Bitcoin price fully depends on the demand so the price falls in the weekend.

Good point, there's definitely that too.  Have you ever tried to capitalise on this?

[Sniper44]

1. your theory is only true about 2 dates, the last two weeks and all the other ones don't match your theory. all the past 6 months for example bitcoin price has gone up through the weekend Friday to sunday.

2. nobody uses ethereum for anything

here is a picture:

[Andre_Goldman]

if I were data scientist ...regards the "Silk Road Peaks" hypothesis ... I also would add data from alt coins like moneritos, dashitos, zeckitos .. look at coin mixes nodes etc ...

ed; add 'alt'

[OmegaStarScream]

Silk road? I'm pretty sure this site is dead for long time now. It's also no secret that the darkweb is contributing on increasing the bitcoin price because a lot of people use it to buy their illegal stuff.

[Pursuer]

since nobody uses ethereum apart from buying it to join an ICO I seriously doubt your speculation is correct regarding it.
and also as for bitcoin, the usage of it in darknet has been going down ever since silk road was closed and it is no longer a big enough usage to even have any kind of effect on price. people moved on to real anonymous coins such as Monero for their shady activities in darknet. and if anything you should speculate about price of Monero using this pattern which I also think is not really effective because people don't buy to spend the next day.

[silkblooms]

People may not use ETH for anything like Silk Road but the fact is that when BTC drops, ETH drops right along with it (ETH takes a harder hit that BTC in terms of percentage drop).

It's happening again, ETH is dropping really quickly at $239 just  now (Saturday morning).  By tomorrow morning it'll be at an all week low and it'll rise sharply from Monday through Thursday.  Watch and see.  I'm gonna buy $17,000 worth of ETH if it hits as low $219 and sell it again when it does $320 mid-week.  That'll be almost $8k profit. Let's see if it happens.

[Anegg]

Has anyone noticed that the price of BTC and ETH (which seem to be correlated) always goes down on a Friday, down more on a Saturday, then down to a low point on a Sunday before steadily climbing Monday to a high on a Thursday?

I have a theory that people need BTC on weekdays to get their drugs on Silk Road onion site so demand is higher through the week as they procure their powder for the weekend activities.  Everyone is sorted at the weekend and you can't get anything in the post on weekends so demand for coin goes down.  Until Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

This is a definite pattern and I've seen it happen for weeks now.  Every week it's the same and it's already dropped really low today (Friday).  

If this pattern is true then there are short term strategy gains to be made by purchasing loads on a Sunday afternoon and offloading them on a Wednesday night or Thursday morning.  This is particularly noticeable with ETH with low/high ratio as much as 65%

Is this a joke, "drugs on the silk road". I am pretty sure that the Silk Road has already closed down. Your theory is also flawed, since their are dates where it doesn't follow the pattern. The easy explanation for this is, the weekends are usually used to relax and not do business, just like you don't work on weekends, the market sort of slows down in those days. People don't usually spend ETH that much, so ETH can't really be used to strengthen your case here.

I also noticed this pattern, but it is quite easy to explain. At the weekend people relax and any business activity is reduced. Bitcoin price fully depends on the demand so the price falls in the weekend.

Don't recommend doing this, especially since might not happen some weeks.

[silkblooms]

Has anyone noticed that the price of BTC and ETH (which seem to be correlated) always goes down on a Friday, down more on a Saturday, then down to a low point on a Sunday before steadily climbing Monday to a high on a Thursday?

I have a theory that people need BTC on weekdays to get their drugs on Silk Road onion site so demand is higher through the week as they procure their powder for the weekend activities.  Everyone is sorted at the weekend and you can't get anything in the post on weekends so demand for coin goes down.  Until Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

This is a definite pattern and I've seen it happen for weeks now.  Every week it's the same and it's already dropped really low today (Friday).  

If this pattern is true then there are short term strategy gains to be made by purchasing loads on a Sunday afternoon and offloading them on a Wednesday night or Thursday morning.  This is particularly noticeable with ETH with low/high ratio as much as 65%

Is this a joke, "drugs on the silk road". I am pretty sure that the Silk Road has already closed down. Your theory is also flawed, since their are dates where it doesn't follow the pattern. The easy explanation for this is, the weekends are usually used to relax and not do business, just like you don't work on weekends, the market sort of slows down in those days. People don't usually spend ETH that much, so ETH can't really be used to strengthen your case here.

I also noticed this pattern, but it is quite easy to explain. At the weekend people relax and any business activity is reduced. Bitcoin price fully depends on the demand so the price falls in the weekend.

Don't recommend doing this, especially since might not happen some weeks.

Actually Silk Road is alive and well.  It was shut down but it just came straight back it it still takes BTC.  It was the original driving force for BTC and it still plays a part in it's demand.  So no, it's not a joke and I intend to prove it this week when I cash in on this pattern.

[krishnapramod]

Has anyone noticed that the price of BTC and ETH (which seem to be correlated) always goes down on a Friday, down more on a Saturday, then down to a low point on a Sunday before steadily climbing Monday to a high on a Thursday?

I have a theory that people need BTC on weekdays to get their drugs on Silk Road onion site so demand is higher through the week as they procure their powder for the weekend activities.  Everyone is sorted at the weekend and you can't get anything in the post on weekends so demand for coin goes down.  Until Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

This is a definite pattern and I've seen it happen for weeks now.  Every week it's the same and it's already dropped really low today (Friday).  

If this pattern is true then there are short term strategy gains to be made by purchasing loads on a Sunday afternoon and offloading them on a Wednesday night or Thursday morning.  This is particularly noticeable with ETH with low/high ratio as much as 65%

The price of BTC on several occasions has dropped a bit on weekends. It might be because of a couple of simple reasons.

1. Obviously it is weekend, people would prefer spending quality time with their family, relaxing, having some fun rather than trading bitcoin.

2. Miners covering their mining costs by selling bitcoins.

3. Banks are closed on weekends. People who want to buy bitcoins through bank transfer wouldn't be able to do so on Sundays.

I don't think Silk Road activity is relevant in this context.

[BTCLovingDude]

Actually Silk Road is alive and well.  It was shut down but it just came straight back it it still takes BTC.  It was the original driving force for BTC and it still plays a part in it's demand.  So no, it's not a joke and I intend to prove it this week when I cash in on this pattern.

it wasn't exactly the original reason. Silk Road played some part in one of the many price rises throughout the history of bitcoin and that part wasn't even the biggest part of all.

and also currently there are a lot more usages for bitcoin that any kind of usage of bitcoin in silk road or any other dark places of the internet is nothing in comparison.

and again also as some other user said, the days of people thinking bitcoin is anonymous are over. the awareness has increased and on top of that there are many good anonymous coins such as XMR which are being used. and that decreased the usage of bitcoin in silk road a lot.

[LouVandetta]

Interesting speculation.
But I don't think it would be that simple.

On the other hand, it might be true that ppl tends to sell their bitcoin on those day.
furthermore, the prices goes up on weekdays, maybe because it was working hour or day.
But, we couldn't be so sure, right. Silk road still open? what?

[Wind_FURY]

Is Ethereum now a joke network in the forum? There are many negative comments about it now that it was uncovered that it cannot scale. But what about the hard fork to POS and sharding? Both will be ready by the end of the year if I believe.

[BitcoinHodler]

Is Ethereum now a joke network in the forum? There are many negative comments about it now that it was uncovered that it cannot scale. But what about the hard fork to POS and sharding? Both will be ready by the end of the year if I believe.

switch to POS is a hard fork which may cause another split in ethereum chain and make another one! because the miners who are currently receiving a nice big reward and are mostly GPU miners are not happy about this change at all because it will be the end of their revenue.

whether it will solve its scaling issues, i am not sure. haven't checked it much and there aren't enough information on it either. most people even call it a useless solution.

[NorrisK]

This has been speculated before and it may appear to be true for a few weeks, but as shown by the figure it's not a steadily recurring trend.

If you still think it will hold for the coming weeks, why not sell on Thursday and buy back on Sunday?