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Author Topic: Are these massive satoshi dice wins real?  (Read 1678 times)
dogie
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May 10, 2013, 07:34:08 PM
 #1

http://satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=d602ad09f967f11d50fcb2f98df8d001a812ce4965d6e69340f8961aeb32f27c
Bet 0.03, received nearly 2k back. Ie instant $2mill $200k at today's prices.

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StarenseN
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May 10, 2013, 07:35:19 PM
 #2

http://satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=d602ad09f967f11d50fcb2f98df8d001a812ce4965d6e69340f8961aeb32f27c
Bet less than 1, received nearly 2k back. Ie instant $2mill at today's prices.
Your math iz a bit broken :F
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May 10, 2013, 07:38:43 PM
 #3

http://satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=d602ad09f967f11d50fcb2f98df8d001a812ce4965d6e69340f8961aeb32f27c
Bet less than 1, received nearly 2k back. Ie instant $2mill at today's prices.

Why not? it's gambling, if the odds are small the prizes are big, it's just the lowest odds on satoshi dice are incredibly thin, altho, i'd rather play it over the lottery personally, just if you use it don't go crazy, gambling never pays off well even if your 'winning'
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May 10, 2013, 07:43:44 PM
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Also be sure to check the "Leader Board"

Address   Bets   Wins   Losses    BTC Bet                   BTC Winnings
15HJgk   1467   379    1088      82,129.28450000     7,729.95349641
...
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May 10, 2013, 08:31:04 PM
 #5

http://satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=d602ad09f967f11d50fcb2f98df8d001a812ce4965d6e69340f8961aeb32f27c
Bet less than 1, received nearly 2k back. Ie instant $2mill $200k at today's prices.

Haha, nice picture on that page. May cause a heart attack, so the winner won't claim his winning.
grue
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May 10, 2013, 08:35:57 PM
 #6

Are these lottery wins real?
http://www.olg.ca/lotteries/index.jsp

bet less than $2 received nearly $17 million back.




ITT: OP can't into expected value.

It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

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May 10, 2013, 09:26:54 PM
 #7

don't get me wrong, I understand how gambling works, but aren't certain transactions on satoshidice internal? I wish I had a link to the conversation, but I heard that they plant a certain amount of bets against themselves, again, why, I don't know... anyway, it wasn't me who won, so who cares?

Sig This
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May 10, 2013, 09:34:26 PM
 #8

no.
00null
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May 10, 2013, 10:39:18 PM
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don't get me wrong, I understand how gambling works, but aren't certain transactions on satoshidice internal? I wish I had a link to the conversation, but I heard that they plant a certain amount of bets against themselves, again, why, I don't know... anyway, it wasn't me who won, so who cares?
The "why" question is easy to answer. SDice pays the profit to their shareholders. Now when they play internally and win they remove profit of the shareholders and increase their own profit. And winning would be easy because they know the daily secret.
Not saying that they actually do it though.

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May 10, 2013, 11:28:59 PM
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don't get me wrong, I understand how gambling works, but aren't certain transactions on satoshidice internal? I wish I had a link to the conversation, but I heard that they plant a certain amount of bets against themselves, again, why, I don't know... anyway, it wasn't me who won, so who cares?
The "why" question is easy to answer. SDice pays the profit to their shareholders. Now when they play internally and win they remove profit of the shareholders and increase their own profit. And winning would be easy because they know the daily secret.
Not saying that they actually do it though.

From last time I read how SatoshiDice works, I remember that it would be easy to win only if /both/ knowing the daily secret and also the transaction id were known before sending the bet. Can you know (or guess with certain accuracy) what will be transaction id before sending it through the network ?
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May 10, 2013, 11:32:22 PM
 #11

From last time I read how SatoshiDice works, I remember that it would be easy to win only if /both/ knowing the daily secret and also the transaction id were known before sending the bet. Can you know (or guess with certain accuracy) what will be transaction id before sending it through the network ?
if you were operating satoshidice, you could pretend to be a regular player. if you won, you would not make a profit. the same is true if you lost. however, making high risk bets like this creates hype and makes satoshi dice seem more popular. in addition, people who can't into probability will see the wins and think "hey this guy won, maybe i should play too!".

tl;dr: satoshidice can generate hype with minimal expense by playing their own game.

It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

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00null
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May 10, 2013, 11:36:26 PM
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don't get me wrong, I understand how gambling works, but aren't certain transactions on satoshidice internal? I wish I had a link to the conversation, but I heard that they plant a certain amount of bets against themselves, again, why, I don't know... anyway, it wasn't me who won, so who cares?
The "why" question is easy to answer. SDice pays the profit to their shareholders. Now when they play internally and win they remove profit of the shareholders and increase their own profit. And winning would be easy because they know the daily secret.
Not saying that they actually do it though.

From last time I read how SatoshiDice works, I remember that it would be easy to win only if /both/ knowing the daily secret and also the transaction id were known before sending the bet. Can you know (or guess with certain accuracy) what will be transaction id before sending it through the network ?
The rawtransaction API of the standard Bitcoin client let you create a transaction without actually transmitting it. If you don't like the resulting txid just don't send it. Repeat this process until you have what you are looking for (a winning transaction) and then use the API to send it. So yes, it would be very easy for them to actually do this.

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May 11, 2013, 12:10:47 AM
 #13

don't get me wrong, I understand how gambling works, but aren't certain transactions on satoshidice internal? I wish I had a link to the conversation, but I heard that they plant a certain amount of bets against themselves, again, why, I don't know... anyway, it wasn't me who won, so who cares?
The "why" question is easy to answer. SDice pays the profit to their shareholders. Now when they play internally and win they remove profit of the shareholders and increase their own profit. And winning would be easy because they know the daily secret.
Not saying that they actually do it though.

From last time I read how SatoshiDice works, I remember that it would be easy to win only if /both/ knowing the daily secret and also the transaction id were known before sending the bet. Can you know (or guess with certain accuracy) what will be transaction id before sending it through the network ?

Yes you can submit bets systematically, not discrediting them in public, just saying that as a community we should all come to the realization of the flaws and improve upon them instead of burying it together with the shareholders... SatoshiDice can also potentially steal from the players despite them claiming "provably fair", IT IS provably fair when you don't take delayed bets into account which do happen, sometimes up to 48 hours, which then gives them the opportunity to generate a secret of the day which is most beneficial to the house.








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May 11, 2013, 12:11:47 AM
 #14

Yes, those massive wins are real.

No, SatoshiDice doesn't send fake transactions to puff up its numbers in any way nor does it run betting bots of any kind.
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