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Author Topic: Calm Before The Storm  (Read 2083 times)
coinvestor
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June 20, 2011, 06:42:36 PM
 #1

Is it just me or is everyone else just staring at charts waiting for something to go up or down?

I watch weighted prices because, as time has proven, trusting one source will doom you. Weighted prices are at a 10-day low. Volume is steady due to the catastrophes and interest surrounding it (not to mention people trying to cash out while they can). Major US news sectors and experts have been itching at the chance to give this bitcoin economy a thumbs down; and they're doing it.

Sources:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43464477
http://www.pcworld.com/article/230722/bitcoin_from_success_to_flop_in_record_time.html
http://www.quora.com/Bitcoin/Is-the-cryptocurrency-Bitcoin-a-good-idea
http://blogs.forbes.com/timworstall/2011/06/20/so-thats-the-end-of-bitcoin-then/

Overall, my response to this has been:

1. 50% of people believe in the system, 50% came sometime after May to invest money for the purpose of investing money. The entire market is now suffering due to those who want to bail "while they still can."

2. Any person who watches these markets by the minute are only enslaving themselves. I'm not saying not to watch this stuff carefully, but don't starve yourself. It's the minute-by-minute actions that are causing the volatility. The generation of bitcoin is exciting when it's in an elementary stage. One could say it was equally exciting for the euro. Of course the euro developed it's worth at a slower rate. We have social media now so everything catches like wildfire (poor Arizona).

3. I don't think this is the end of the bitcoin. I can't say for certain whether it's a bubble bursting or not though. I doubt any one person's expertise to back up a belief that it's a bubble. I will admit that it's hard to ignore expert economists. If it is a bubble bursting, I think we can see the light in this. After the dot com bust, companies survived and were better for it.


I would recommend to people that watching weighted prices is the smartest thing to do. It's like watching stock indexes like NASDAQ, NYSE, & DOW. It gives an overall view of the market's health. And the market is getting bad right now, but may bounce back up. Even when the highest Ask from last Friday was around $30, the weighted prices never got above $17.50, the price at which Mt Dox crashed.

Good luck everybody!

Coinvestor

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June 20, 2011, 06:52:01 PM
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Staring at the charts is making my head hurt, just waiting for the markets to be stable again, and will buy back, good or bad, when TradeHill or Gox comes back up proper.  Still tons of faith in the coin and what it is standing for to know that people will just now stay away from places that gather coin in one place, that whole decentralized part of Bitcoin will be more of a reality for people who are invested in this idea.   Market trading is just for those people, the market itself has people that will be buying and selling even if the coin is down a bit for now.  Because really, it is still worth a lot more than it was not too long ago, where most merchants had their money invested anyways.

tl;dr Fuck charts, market will continue to be a gamble like any market should be, the coin itself will continue based on what it stands for alone.

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June 20, 2011, 06:58:41 PM
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I think it's pretty easy to "ignore expert economists". Especially after 2008.
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June 20, 2011, 07:01:14 PM
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@ BitcoinPorn
Yeah. Well that's definitely a value investment outlook. Most people only see the growth in this, which is smart but also risky. When they see it not growing they back out. Value investors should be able to invest in exchange too. I think having a portfolio split in three ways would be effective (mining, exchange - currency and GLBSE, and discretionary spending in bitcoin markets). That way were feeding the entire economy, not just parts of it that will make us money. In the early dollar days they gave Americans dollars to spend. Maybe someone should do that too!

@triox
Haha, I hear you. That's a whole other topic. Take that one to Politics bud.  Wink

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June 20, 2011, 07:07:23 PM
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And the market is getting bad right now, but may bounce back up. Even when the highest Ask from last Friday was around $30, the weighted prices never got above $17.50, the price at which Mt Dox crashed.

Good luck everybody!

Coinvestor

I'm just watching speculative traders fight for what appears to be a cheesy consensus. I have placed my bets short (bought all the puts money can buy at bitoption.org), not saying the bitcoin will collapse, but i believe we need a deeper dip before we can regain some bullish momentum again. We're dealing with a trust deficit.

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June 20, 2011, 07:16:11 PM
 #6

@Grant
It looks like the only exchange you can trade on bitoption.org is Mt Gox. Can we validate that?

I think you're making a smart investing move. It's safe in a market losing a lot of it's liquidity. A lot of the people trying to save their investments could learn from your example.


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June 20, 2011, 07:28:50 PM
 #7

@Grant
Also, I think what will help to revive this trust issue is:

 1. Mt Gox will have to update it's security measures if it wants to be a player
 2. Everyone else will strengthen their security (exchanges and users)
 3. As far as country sentiment, Gavin is going to speak at the CIA's Tech Conf (that should be interesting)

It's going to be another wild two weeks for bitcoin and it's not going anywhere. There's still a lot to come from this economy. Every business that can be reinvented to utilize the bitcoin is going to appear.

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June 20, 2011, 07:57:31 PM
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This is the magic of decentralized currency.

No matter how bad it crashes, how many people bail, or whatever institutions collapse, the Bitcoin will survive, regardless of its value.

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June 20, 2011, 09:55:03 PM
 #9

@Fuzzy
I wouldn't go that far. There used to be a currency based on cow hide...Now it's just worth what it's worth as a material. Blackouts could put detrimental dents in the bitcoin system, and there's no way of predicting things like that. It's still a very vulnerable currency.

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June 20, 2011, 10:00:05 PM
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@Fuzzy
I wouldn't go that far. There used to be a currency based on cow hide...Now it's just worth what it's worth as a material. Blackouts could put detrimental dents in the bitcoin system, and there's no way of predicting things like that. It's still a very vulnerable currency.

Coinvestor (Ryan)

Yup, and don't exclude the possibility of new and different currencies that could emerge in the future. Imagine Facebook + Google + a few banks cooperating together to build something that could be of more benefit to them (i.e. a future version of the current Facebook Credits) - with their capacity to invest in development and marketing, they could take over the market easily.

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June 20, 2011, 10:09:26 PM
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When you say 'weighted market' what do you mean by that exactly?

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June 20, 2011, 10:19:10 PM
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@SeW900
Yes, I can certainly see Google wanting to try this. They're probably still sore from being denied by Groupon, so what better way of attacking them by inventing the money everyone spends at Groupon. Facebook, however, would probably not be interested due to the anonymity. Zuckerberg openly disagrees with people hiding behind profiles (namely Myspace). He's not the type it seems. And I think he's got enough problems with Facebook as it is (they're losing steam http://bit.ly/lvsGzf).

@Oldminer
As I understand, the weighted price is the average of the multiple exchanges.


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June 20, 2011, 11:42:18 PM
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@Fuzzy
I wouldn't go that far. There used to be a currency based on cow hide...Now it's just worth what it's worth as a material. Blackouts could put detrimental dents in the bitcoin system, and there's no way of predicting things like that. It's still a very vulnerable currency.

Coinvestor (Ryan)

Do you know what a bitcoin is? If you're comparing it to cow hide in any way, you probably need to read up on bitcoin some more.


Imagine Facebook + Google + a few banks cooperating together to build something that could be of more benefit to them (i.e. a future version of the current Facebook Credits)

That would just be another centralized, institution run/controlled form of "credits" or "currency", the exact thing bitcoin was built to oppose.
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June 21, 2011, 12:12:25 AM
 #14

@Fuzzy
Currency is currency. I'm familiar with antiquated and modern currency so I don't need a lesson on either one.
And in regards to your other comment. It is true that it would be centralized if that were to happen, but any single person that represents bitcoin publicly can be held accountable (e.g. Gavin Andresen). Is he becoming the sole representative for the bitcoin?

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June 21, 2011, 04:49:27 AM
 #15

Just an update gang,

Weighted price is rising slowly. Just above 13 and now every USD exchange is above 10.

+1 for everyone

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June 21, 2011, 04:59:21 AM
 #16

Well they are all snappily-written up articles that serve the purpose of their masters, I suppose. From Forbes:
Quote
The question to ask is why this would be at all desirable. Maybe you hate the US government, or all governments. Maybe you want to avoid bank interchange fees...
That made me Lulz, because those are all GOOD reasons to support crypto-currency against Governmental systems of exploitation. Yep, I have to point out, that railing against the term Bitcoin is a bit misguided any case, because it won't be the last of them to come along and arguably, it wasn't even the first of its kind either. Crypto-currencies are the future, the future of the resistance and the future downfall of all powerful Governments. Hoorah to that!  Cheesy

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June 21, 2011, 05:03:59 AM
 #17

I'm sorry that Mt.Gox is still down... I had just started trading on this Saturday, and went to bed right before the crash. There's a YouTube video posted where a guy recorded the Sierra Chart feed as the crash happened... Breathtaking! I wish I had seen that.

This is the first emerging market I've witnessed, and I'm very interested in seeing where this goes.
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June 21, 2011, 05:08:24 AM
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It's really a shame what happen with Mtgox, but it goes to show we can't rely on a single site. We shouldn't need to rely on a single site such as Mtgox.

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June 21, 2011, 05:13:50 AM
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Did anyone read that CNBC article.  My god that was painful.  I hate to extrapolate that to the rest of the media, but we need more knowledgeable reporters.  Not just for bitcoin, but as a society.  I don't know what they teach at journalism schools, but it certainly doesn't regard research.  I see the same thing with scientific articles.  Whenever I read an article regarding Virology it hurts to hear a reporter attempt to convey even simple ideas.  I seriously think I could eat some paper and shit out a better article.       
coinvestor
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June 21, 2011, 05:18:39 AM
 #20

@flaxindo
Sorry to hear about that. You and hundreds more are feeling the sting of it. Wish ya luck!

@qwat
There's really not much one can do. Just with the money (non-BTC) you already have, you pick a bank and in doing so you're trusting they don't fail. I can't imagine my bank going down.

@Slab Squathrust
Hahaha. I hear ya. Watching a reporter on MSNBC talk about Apple's iCloud was mind-numbingly awful. NBC as a whole must have not a bad recruitment process, but none at all.

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