gpu bubble well and truly bursting

[kopija]

Some hard data re: ETH ASIC from Bitmex research team.
TLDR: its not an ASIC, but its also not an GPU.
Nice charts to kill some FUD, though.

https://blog.bitmex.com/nextstageinmining/

[Suslived]

Luckily, GPU mining =/= ETH.  ETH made its decision, time to get over with it.

Actually, ETH === GPU mining.

You're a legendary account and you should know by now that if and when ETH moves to POS. All those 8 million GPUs will mine the shit out of any and all those other coins you mentioned. Difficulty for the entire mining scene will increase and only the industrial miners with almost free electricity will remain.

And you are a member account owner who doesn't know it is a self fixing problem.

There are 2 types of mining:

1-Profit mining (that's what nicehash users do basically, mine and dump for USD/BTC to pay rent)
2-Speculative mining (mine and hold)

I would mine Ravens even if it wasn't profitable to mine right now because I expect a value increase in the future. (I too expect a value increase for bitcore, but not as much as Raven, which is very clear in my first message)

Not everybody will be mining at a loss. I am not saying ETH's decisions won't damage GPU mining industry, it will. Some people just will have to quit mining that's all. (Mostly big industrial GPU farms since they have to pay huge electric bills and they need to dump what they mine to pay those bills.) I don't care a bit. Those farms are already a threat to decentralization. I have no problems with they are going out of business.

I can gladly help to secure Monero or Raven network with my hobby GPU rig because I can afford to pay for the electricity.

If those farms decide to switch to speculative mining like me, I am OK with that too. It means they can afford to do it. I don't care, it is their risk not mine.

This goes to show rank is such a bad measure of anything.

Your strategy of speculative mining is inefficient it is wrong. Imagine the situation:

A. Person A mines the most profitable coin which results in revenue worth $50 today.
B. Person B mines raven coin which results in revenue worth $25 today.
C. Person C mines the most profitable coin and buys $50 worth of raven coin today.

In 1 weeks time lets say that raven coin becomes 10x worth than what it was today. Who will be the richer??

A. Person A will still have $50
B. Person B will have $250
C. Person C will have $500

Speculative mining which is person B is so wrong. ALWAYS MINE the most profitable coin.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also, you are wrong again when you said:

Not everybody will be mining at a loss. I am not saying ETH's decisions won't damage GPU mining industry, it will. Some people just will have to quit mining that's all. (Mostly big industrial GPU farms since they have to pay huge electric bills and they need to dump what they mine to pay those bills.) I don't care a bit. Those farms are already a threat to decentralization. I have no problems with they are going out of business.

It is the big industrial farms that will stay because they have the cheapest electricity! Why on earth would you build a mining farm at a location where electricity is expensive? Where is the logic in mr. legendary sir? It is the home-based miner who mines at residential or commercial electricity rates that will be forced to close shop. It is us the average joes who will lose.

Stop being an elitist jerk with your legendary account and make sure you check the advise you give newbies.

[mindrust]

Speculative mining which is person B is so wrong. ALWAYS MINE the most profitable coin.

I didn't say otherwise. When I said unprofitable, I meant unprofitable against the electricity costs, not the other crypto. I hoped you were clever enough to understand. I was wrong indeed.

It is the big industrial farms that will stay because they have the cheapest electricity! Why on earth would you build a mining farm at a location where electricity is expensive?

So according to your logic, there shouldn't be any mining farms in the US, Canada, Germany, UK? Nice logic mister member.

***For the record, It was you who came up with that account rank crap. I don't give a shit about ranks.

[Facinat]

Some hard data re: ETH ASIC from Bitmex research team.
TLDR: its not an ASIC, but its also not an GPU.
Nice charts to kill some FUD, though.

https://blog.bitmex.com/nextstageinmining/

I believe the ETH ASIC is already being tested for long time.

[fr4nkthetank]

He means you mine coins before they are on an exchange.  So you mine a new coin, it doesnt have a price yet.  You are taking a gamble but with patience it sometimes pays off.

[BennyT]

Just a reminder --> A lot of this speculation of what happens to GPU mining when ETH goes POS is based on everything in the world staying static and ETH going POS. Then yes everyone is correct who is calling for the end of GPU mining. Unfortunately, the world has never worked this way.

It would be GREAT if ETH can get off proof of work and allow more innovative projects to come forward that leverage GPU mining. Right now crypto is being bottlenecked by the return which gets away from the purpose of creating a decentralized network. All you doomsdayers are missing the boat completely, no offence.

[Suslived]

Speculative mining which is person B is so wrong. ALWAYS MINE the most profitable coin.

I didn't say otherwise. When I said unprofitable, I meant unprofitable against the electricity costs, not the other crypto. I hoped you were clever enough to understand. I was wrong indeed.

I would mine Ravens even if it wasn't profitable to mine right now because I expect a value increase in the future. (I too expect a value increase for bitcore, but not as much as Raven, which is very clear in my first message)

I'm clever enough to understand that you can't even admit your mistake. Mining raven coin at a loss eh? Keep spreading the wrong information.

It is the big industrial farms that will stay because they have the cheapest electricity! Why on earth would you build a mining farm at a location where electricity is expensive?

So according to your logic, there shouldn't be any mining farms in the US, Canada, Germany, UK? Nice logic mister member.

***For the record, It was you who came up with that account rank crap. I don't give a shit about ranks.

[/quote]

Try to read and understand better, the logic states that the places/miners with more expensive electricity will die out first, regardless of location. Mr. US, Canada, Germany, UK, legendary member sir.

[sadyas]

He means you mine coins before they are on an exchange.  So you mine a new coin, it doesnt have a price yet.  You are taking a gamble but with patience it sometimes pays off.

I did that a few years ago. It is quite risky as they might not be listed later.

[whotheff]

ETH is not going full PoS. Instead, it will be 5-10% tops.
So nothing to worry about. The ETH wales will be able to relax
and enojy from distance.

[toefu]

both sides have good points, but reality has to set in.

always mining most profitable is also not correct. First, your example is far too extreme and not valid. In most cases monero/eth may be the most profitable, but not much more so than the speculative coin. If the differential was actually 2x, then yes, just buy it. In many cases it's more like 10-30% more profitable. It's not realistic to constantly use your daily profits to buy coin X. you simply wont be able to keep up with it. so mining speculatively is much easier to do.

[rdluffy]

All gpus are available in my country, but the prices not changed...

[NiklasFalk]

All gpus are available in my country, but the prices not changed...

That's because the GPUs are not tradeable commodities (which have spot values), they are things in boxes that are stored in several hands before they are sold.
This means that someone have filled their stock at a certain price, and will not sell to a loss until they "have to".

Prices must drop until the 1170 and 1180 are announced, or at least after they are getting available.

On that note, when will it be possible to pre-order 1170 and 1180 at MSRP?
With that in the equation, who think they can sell a 1080Ti for $600+ after the release date of 1180?
If demand will be high enough (which it can be at current profits/difficulties) the new cards will be impossible to get you hands on and they will be sold at 50% over MSRP... Then the value of current cards will not drop by much, we just got even faster more efficient cards that noone can get their hands on.

[grendel25]

All gpus are available in my country, but the prices not changed...

That's because the GPUs are not tradeable commodities (which have spot values), they are things in boxes that are stored in several hands before they are sold.
This means that someone have filled their stock at a certain price, and will not sell to a loss until they "have to".

Prices must drop until the 1170 and 1180 are announced, or at least after they are getting available.

On that note, when will it be possible to pre-order 1170 and 1180 at MSRP?
With that in the equation, who think they can sell a 1080Ti for $600+ after the release date of 1180?
If demand will be high enough (which it can be at current profits/difficulties) the new cards will be impossible to get you hands on and they will be sold at 50% over MSRP... Then the value of current cards will not drop by much, we just got even faster more efficient cards that noone can get their hands on.

A lot will be determined by the price/performance of the 11-series cards too.  For all we know, the 1080ti may remain the king of GPU miners even after the new 11-series come out.  Rumors have it that the 11-series cards will cost vastly more than the 10-series but how will the performance gain stack up? 

If they plan to price gouge then maybe they will see a retaliation by gamers and miners whereby they realize that overpriced new units aren't worth it... Of course by that point we would obviously see price drops and likely see subsidies paid back out to vendors to cover the loss. 

Think about it.  They aren't paying their engineers much more...even though they all likely got really sweet bonuses after the recent earnings.  And the cost of materials hasn't really changed.  They are just capitalizing on hype which could result in them losing business if they are not careful.

[gotminer]

Set up on alts looking tasty.  Don't shit your pants.

[whotheff]

A lot will be determined by the price/performance of the 11-series cards too.  For all we know, the 1080ti may remain the king of GPU miners even after the new 11-series come out.  Rumors have it that the 11-series cards will cost vastly more than the 10-series but how will the performance gain stack up? 

If they plan to price gouge then maybe they will see a retaliation by gamers and miners whereby they realize that overpriced new units aren't worth it... Of course by that point we would obviously see price drops and likely see subsidies paid back out to vendors to cover the loss. 

Think about it.  They aren't paying their engineers much more...even though they all likely got really sweet bonuses after the recent earnings.  And the cost of materials hasn't really changed.  They are just capitalizing on hype which could result in them losing business if they are not careful.

They bump game performance with about 20-30% each new VGA generation. They can easily double it, but why bother? That is why I think the mining capability will be also very precisely aimed at those figures. The income you get will be worth it - 25% average, price will be 30% higher than current one, power draw will be lowered with another 10-20%. They don't have anybody to compete with, AMD will follow same steps. This is also eviden from the constant postponing of new release.

For refference: 390's still pull 30Mhs but at double power draw of their next gen equivalent.

[Maren]

ETH is not going full PoS. Instead, it will be 5-10% tops.
So nothing to worry about. The ETH wales will be able to relax
and enojy from distance.

Block reward will go from 3 eth to 0.6 eth when casper arrives.

[NiklasFalk]

Block reward will go from 3 eth to 0.6 eth when casper arrives.

Just calc for kicks:
Lets say that this makes 80% of the hash power go to other coins (since the grass is not dead on the other side, yet).
Based on 213Th/s that's 170Th/s which equals to 5.7 Million 30Mh/s GPUs
If we guess that those GPUs have 600h/s on CryptoNight7 and all of them would choose Monero7.
That would add 6,5 time the Hashpower from 519 Mh/s to 3927 Mh/s.

But this is playing with numbers, the hashpower will never move as one, and some of the hashpower might not be movable. The number per card is just guess numbers, but they are not far off for several cards (many cards fall within a factor 2).

Regardless, there is a boatload of GPUs that will be affected by the radically changed block reward.

[Marvell2]

ETH is not going full PoS. Instead, it will be 5-10% tops.
So nothing to worry about. The ETH wales will be able to relax
and enojy from distance.

Block reward will go from 3 eth to 0.6 eth when casper arrives.

no one will mine eth for .06 lol unless eth is worth 20k lol

[gameboy366]

All gpus are available in my country, but the prices not changed...

That's because the GPUs are not tradeable commodities (which have spot values), they are things in boxes that are stored in several hands before they are sold.
This means that someone have filled their stock at a certain price, and will not sell to a loss until they "have to".

Prices must drop until the 1170 and 1180 are announced, or at least after they are getting available.

On that note, when will it be possible to pre-order 1170 and 1180 at MSRP?
With that in the equation, who think they can sell a 1080Ti for $600+ after the release date of 1180?
If demand will be high enough (which it can be at current profits/difficulties) the new cards will be impossible to get you hands on and they will be sold at 50% over MSRP... Then the value of current cards will not drop by much, we just got even faster more efficient cards that noone can get their hands on.

A lot will be determined by the price/performance of the 11-series cards too.  For all we know, the 1080ti may remain the king of GPU miners even after the new 11-series come out.  Rumors have it that the 11-series cards will cost vastly more than the 10-series but how will the performance gain stack up? 

If they plan to price gouge then maybe they will see a retaliation by gamers and miners whereby they realize that overpriced new units aren't worth it... Of course by that point we would obviously see price drops and likely see subsidies paid back out to vendors to cover the loss. 

Think about it.  They aren't paying their engineers much more...even though they all likely got really sweet bonuses after the recent earnings.  And the cost of materials hasn't really changed.  They are just capitalizing on hype which could result in them losing business if they are not careful.

Manufacturers are not overpricing the gpus, it's the damn retailers. MRP is not that high.

[whotheff]

Block reward will go from 3 eth to 0.6 eth when casper arrives.

no one will mine eth for .06 lol unless eth is worth 20k lol
[/quote]

Hmm, how about those 0.6 ETH worth is back to 1000-1500$
and you can use only your walled and 30-40W electricity for 0.6?