The real crash starts after Aug 1st

[Dark_Element]

All these peeps, holding for the "recovery" after Aug 1st.....

Don't you know the big boys are going to crush those hopes right after Aug 1st no matter what the outcome is?
That's a lot of free coins for them to grab, they aren't going to let the little guy make any money.... that's their money as far as they're concerned.
And yes, it's free coins for them.... because they manipulate the price.... so all the coins they grab from you will be sold after they bring the price back up (even if only for a little while). That's free profit for them.


So if you're holding, that's great... more power to you. I'm holding too, but I do know what's coming and it's impossible to catch the bottom.... I just don't care and I'll be laughing all the way down.

Remember your wits, don't get emotional, and for heavens sake..... when everyone is jumping out of windows (and they will)..... LAUGH.

-DE


"Why does Goldman Sachs call retail investors "Muppets"? Because they are....."

[CryptoPro3]

I dont understand when you say "thats a lot of free coins for them to grab". You are not explaining how a crash will occur after august 1. Your post is very unclear. How are the big boys going to "crush our hopes"?

Either way, I think you are wrong. After August 1 I am thinking Bitcoin will go to $3000 relatively quickly and stay there, probably even go higher. The only reason the market is so red lately is because FUD about August 1 and threads like this.

[nasibakar]

FUD will likely to grow,
Uncertain is ahead.

There may be a drop but I expect that it would recover.
Once dropping then catching is the best.

[styca]

All these peeps, holding for the "recovery" after Aug 1st.....

Don't you know the big boys are going to crush those hopes right after Aug 1st no matter what the outcome is?
That's a lot of free coins for them to grab, they aren't going to let the little guy make any money.... that's their money as far as they're concerned.
And yes, it's free coins for them.... because they manipulate the price.... so all the coins they grab from you will be sold after they bring the price back up (even if only for a little while). That's free profit for them.


So if you're holding, that's great... more power to you. I'm holding too, but I do know what's coming and it's impossible to catch the bottom.... I just don't care and I'll be laughing all the way down.

Remember your wits, don't get emotional, and for heavens sake..... when everyone is jumping out of windows (and they will)..... LAUGH.

-DE


"Why does Goldman Sachs call retail investors "Muppets"? Because they are....."

I understand what you're saying, and I agree to an extent. If a whale is looking to pick up cheap coins, they will capitalise on the current uncertainty - if a lot of people are thinking that at 12:01am on Aug 01 prices will start to shoot straight back up, then the whale's best strategy is to throw in a sell wall to ensure that prices continue to fall... panic will ensue, people will throw their coins away for almost nothing, leaving the whale to buy them cheap.

I only agree to an extent though, because at the moment the market is moving as a whole. Everything is red. When the bitcoin issue is resolved, then everything will turn green. Which makes it harder for a whale to instil panic - for it to be truly effective, they'd have to either a) make every coin fall simultaneously, or b) focus the attack on bitcoin, which is obviously more difficult given the volumes involved.

[Dark_Element]

I dont understand when you say "thats a lot of free coins for them to grab". You are not explaining how a crash will occur after august 1. Your post is very unclear. How are the big boys going to "crush our hopes"?

Either way, I think you are wrong. After August 1 I am thinking Bitcoin will go to $3000 relatively quickly and stay there, probably even go higher. The only reason the market is so red lately is because FUD about August 1 and threads like this.

Ok you're the exact type of person I'm trying to help (and I'm not trying to be condescending).
I started trading 10 years ago.... cut my teeth on penny stocks and small caps..... this is 100% the same behavior as crypo's. Same rules, same behaviors.

Maybe BTC is more isolated as people say it has more depth..... I can promise you it's market depth means nothing.... as does it's market cap. They aren't moving it's market cap, only it's order book and that is pure garbage.
The 1st thing people here need to do is stop looking at it as a currency, it doesn't matter if it is or isn't.... it's a stock. Same as USD, or paper Gold, or anything. If you can touch it, or get a futures contract on it, it's a commodity. If you can get a bond on something it's a security.
Any coin right now is a speculative stock.... the proper contemporary is a pink sheets stock (which runs from pennies to hundreds of dollars). The exchanges depth (the market maker/or lack of) is extremely similar.

It takes hundreds of millions to push the precious medals market around... and this is done on a daily basis. It takes billions to move the forex market around, and this is done on a daily basis.
The point is: It only takes a few million to move BTC around with a churning algo. A few million..... that's spare change. The same is done with small caps and pink sheets. It's churn.

What is the cardinal rule in trading? Sell the news.
It doesn't matter what the news is on the 1st. A long term positive decision won't be priced in advance.
Let's say some dream news comes out on the 1st.... best possible outcome. What will happen? The Muppets will buy, there will be a brief pop and the Muppets will be happy. The big boys will sell into the pop, and then drag it down. Why? The retail buyers will get nervous and question their purchase (understandable). There's nothing like loosing money to make people nervous.
What would you think if the news is good, and it drops below $2000? $1800? $1600?

2nd thing people need to understand is: The crowd is always wrong. If the general consensus is "after the 1st, it's going to go up".... and this IS the general consensus.... it means it is NOT going to happen. You're playing against the masters. Do they mind throwing away 20 million to drop it under $2000 when 90% of the Muppets think it'll go up? Not at all. If they can grab say a million coins and save a few hundred dollars a coin..... when they inflate it later.... they make hundreds of millions. That's the game.

I've seen it thousands of times, on hundreds of stocks I've followed closely. Fundamentals don't matter. Technicals only matter part of the time.

3rd thing people need to understand: Have you noticed the Coin exchanges break during big down moves? That's because of a lack of market depth. It happens on the big stock exchanges too. Anytime BATS breaks, that's manip and volume wasting the book. That's also how to you get phantom bars in trading software (algo's moving so fast they overwhelm the order book). So BTC is safe because so many people are "in it". No, no , no, my friend. That will get you killed. I've seen so many people go bust in stocks because they 100% believed what they were doing was right, and being right outweighed making money or being safe.


Just trying to help anyone who will listen. Be aware and be prepared. Have a plan.
My plan is to laugh. I've seen it before, and I'll see it again. Doesn't mean I like seeing good people get hurt.... quite the opposite.....I've seen that before.... and I'll see it again.

Hope you're right and we get a moon-shot right out of the gate after the 1st. That would be great. Experience tells me that's not going to happen.

-DE

[FractalUniverse]

they can grab only what people sell to them. any deep dump will be short lived, as there will be many buyers taking the opportunity to get bitcoin cheap. And there won't be  enough coins available to be bought at lower levels

[adaseb]

I understand what you are saying.

I've traded stocks also and know how "Earnings exceed expectations" but yet the stock goes down anyways since most of the retail market is in it, kind of like TSLA or AAPL.

The problem with your theory is that its never correct all the time. Your theory works half the time. Sometimes the retail market gets screwed, sometimes it doesn't.

So even if you take contrarian positions everytime, you will lose money anyways.

Yes on Aug 1st there can be GREAT news, and BTC can go down due to manipulation.

Or the exact opposite can happen. So how exactly do you trade it to make money? You can't.

Its no different than a moving average indicator.

[luffy]

just go for a vacation to beautiful greece, italy, spain and forget about cryptos, at least for a month
nice swimming everybody!

[CryptoPro3]

Yes I totally see your point and I appreciate your detailed reply, it really cleared things up. However, in your theory only the weak hands will get hurt and they deserve to as always. There will indeed be manipulation through this time, people who buy and sell right away because of fear of it going down. People who hold through all this and buy at cheap prices will still end up on top when the market is inflated again.

I guess the lesson here is to think like the big boys (whales) to avoid getting screwed.

[Dark_Element]

I understand what you are saying.

I've traded stocks also and know how "Earnings exceed expectations" but yet the stock goes down anyways since most of the retail market is in it, kind of like TSLA or AAPL.

The problem with your theory is that its never correct all the time. Your theory works half the time. Sometimes the retail market gets screwed, sometimes it doesn't.

So even if you take contrarian positions everytime, you will lose money anyways.

Yes on Aug 1st there can be GREAT news, and BTC can go down due to manipulation.

Or the exact opposite can happen. So how exactly do you trade it to make money? You can't.

Its no different than a moving average indicator.

Maybe I've been lucky then.... almost every great score I've had was betting against the herd (and far more winners than losers there, even doing it blind).
Doing great work on fundamentals would bite me every time.... Every time!!!  T/A on the other hand was 55%-45% for straight T/A, and 70%-30% when using systems and indicators I program.
I've been lobbying my stock program developer to integrate a Crypto data feed into their software.... I sure hope they do it soon. They are very hesitant to add them. Like it's a fad or something.

I've been in some great stock trading rooms over the years though... learned from some really incredible people (and paid a lot to learn from them). It is not a flip of the coin by any means.
Best trader I ever had the pleasure of knowing was a higher up at Morgan Stanley... he was beyond incredible. He was almost exclusively a contra-sentiment trader. Pure instinct, and he was right 80% of the time, just by "feel". One of the only people I would call "naturally gifted" when it came to day trading.

But on the "how exactly do you trade it to make money?", oh I can answer that no problem..... Use a really good Revert To Mean, and you're ok 80% of the time.... but only if you're fast and not greedy. Doesn't matter which direction the movement is: and with the volatility these coins have.... it's a dream come true to me.

-DE

[FractalUniverse]

I understand what you are saying.

I've traded stocks also and know how "Earnings exceed expectations" but yet the stock goes down anyways since most of the retail market is in it, kind of like TSLA or AAPL.

The problem with your theory is that its never correct all the time. Your theory works half the time. Sometimes the retail market gets screwed, sometimes it doesn't.

So even if you take contrarian positions everytime, you will lose money anyways.

Yes on Aug 1st there can be GREAT news, and BTC can go down due to manipulation.

I used to apply stocks and forex logic on bitcoin, but now i see it differently. They can't print more bitcoins into existence, and there are many bitcoins taken off the available market every day

Or the exact opposite can happen. So how exactly do you trade it to make money? You can't.
Its no different than a moving average indicator.

by not jumping with all funds into one position. e.g. grid, or even [unleveraged] martingale with slow unloading on the way up

[Dark_Element]

Yes I totally see your point and I appreciate your detailed reply, it really cleared things up. However, in your theory only the weak hands will get hurt and they deserve to as always. There will indeed be manipulation through this time, people who buy and sell right away because of fear of it going down. People who hold through all this and buy at cheap prices will still end up on top when the market is inflated again.

100% right.... except the buy at lows part.
If you have SUPER DISCIPLINE.... yes. Very few people actually have that (although a lot of people love to talk like they do, then you see them later crying).

I guess a lot depends on if you watch the action all the time (used to watch the every moment of the market day, and the futures markets at night..... super fun).
Takes balls of steel to hold stuff under those conditions (especially if you're a scalper... it's hell on earth).

But if you're aren't watching, and you're view is actually really long term.... yes, you're totally right.
Kind of a foreign concept to me..... but I'm so busy now I can't watch.... so I laugh when I check on what's happening.

When I was new, I tried catching the falling knife a few times (and got burned... LOL). That's learning.
When people write here about "buy once it goes down".... I know better. And it's not like these coins are cheap...... I mean, apples to apples, I'd rather have a stock certificate of a real company over a coin.... but this volatility can't be beat... and the best thing I was ever at trading wise was/is volatility. Made my money using options since that increased volatility.... but you also have to be really good at timing (and that's the hardest thing). With coins you get the volatility without the stinking option greeks. Beautiful.

-DE

[Klangburg]

You seem to be a guy who has seen a lot as far as you told before, too.
Tbh, your words are very interesting to read in here.

I understand what you're trying to figure out and I agree with you seeing the whole crypto market.

To me and my holdings (only alts) it already took 60% off due to the last weeks and I didn't even look at the window so far.

But I bought even more coins of the position I was already in so that I reduced my overall entry point regarding its' btc value.
Of course not at the bottom level - I'm not nearly that good to know the best timing - I could have bought five times as much as I got with my rebuy seeing the last day movements. Though, my thinking tells me that some of the whales you're talking about have already accumulated huge amounts and won't be willing to fall for the possible upcoming panics at these levels.
BUT this only counts for few coins like mine I guess because it has a low circulating supply. Low supply means not many ppl need to be involved to control its' value.

In this case I would say we've seen the bottom already.
There will be many, many more dips in the upcoming weeks, but at a higher level than now.
In fact, I see this as a great chance to improve my day trading skills a lot.

Anyway, the only thing that gives you profit if you've entered at a higher level is to sit it out and hodl.

[JosNekoKopa]

Why do we talking about crash? Actually things will be better after the august 1st. BTC whatever happens won't lose its popularity, certainly won't return to 2014. This is just misconception. Price can vary few days but as soon as situation settles we will see another good pump to 6k.
I must say some scenarios are very realistic and can influence your decisions if you are insecure, i would recommend you to read longer term predictions for BTC.

[pask777]

There is definitely some blood on the streets...

But why do you think that August 1st will cause another crash?

I think that once August 1st is over and there is more certainty about Bitcoin we will see a huge inflow of new money.

This will cause the greatest Bull run the crypto world has ever seen.

[Bowtiesarecool]

There's definitely gonna be some kind of run after Aug. 1st.
The direction is what I'm having a hard time calling - away from crypto or back

[nakata90]

Why do we talking about crash? Actually things will be better after the august 1st. BTC whatever happens won't lose its popularity, certainly won't return to 2014. This is just misconception. Price can vary few days but as soon as situation settles we will see another good pump to 6k.
I must say some scenarios are very realistic and can influence your decisions if you are insecure, i would recommend you to read longer term predictions for BTC.

Everything is possible, Bitcoin is good in history, but at now with a huge number user Bitcoin, the system Blockchain of Bitcoin can't still running stable, need more time and more fees for confirm transaction, usually have congestion transaction in Blockchain when have news can creating panic for the price of Bitcoin ...
=> Bitcoin is old and need find a ways can improve that, but I not think SegWit2x can improve 100% issue of Bitcoin, maybe for short time in 1-2 years

[Ezechiele]

Honestly I hope it crash a lot more, like at 1000$, cheap coins for the "hodl an buy low" guys like me. Anyway I think best strategy is not to "buy low" because nobody knows what low is, best strategy is probably to buy an amount you can afford to lose every week, increase that amount when price is falling an decrease it when price is going up.

[McWorse]

At op:
Please give me only a single example, when a to the day predicted crash happened truly.
You wont find any.

When aug1st will come, the meal is already eaten.

[legendbtc]

Already the crash has been started with many rumors of Split, it is creating a lot of panic in people mind and many people are dumping the coins at the lower price. I think things not working according to the situation because lot propagation going on whether Bitcoin will split or not.