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北上广二手房交易市场遇冷 大城市的房租降了吗?
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Topic: 北上广二手房交易市场遇冷 大城市的房租降了吗? (Read 158 times)
btckatesings
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北上广二手房交易市场遇冷 大城市的房租降了吗?
July 17, 2017, 02:56:57 AM
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受调控政策影响,今年4月以来,北上广等一线城市的二手房交易市场逐步降温,北京二手房交易量更是连续三个月环比下降。不少媒体报道,二手房交易市场降温导致“由售转租”,“热点城市住房租金下跌了”。事实果真如此吗?我们对北京不同地段小区作了一次实地调查。
北京的房租还在涨,涨幅比往年有所缩小
“房东今年每个月只给我涨了120元,比去年涨得少。”硕士毕业3年的小李租住在北京东四环十里堡城市广场小区,“去年5月份续租时,租金每月涨了200元,今年再涨这么多我就想换房子了。”
小李通过房屋中介在该小区租了一个18平方米单间,虽是简单装修,但家具齐全、采光良好。“去年月租金是2490元,现在每个月2610元,我不指望租金会下降,只要别涨太多,我就很满意了。”
“目前较为低迷的二手房买卖对租赁市场影响不大,各种房源的租金也没出现明显下降。”北京链家地产金台里店一位租赁置业顾问介绍,暑期是租房旺季,地铁房和中小学附近的房子都好租。
北京远洋沁山水小区与市重点中学十一学校一街之隔,“我们家房租去年每月是8300元,今年涨到了8600元。”蒋女士在远洋沁山水小区租了一套89平方米的两居室。“家长一租就是好几年,待租房源也不是很多,所以租金一直在涨。”
城市中心的二手房租金居高不下,经济条件有限的租户被迫选择去城郊租房,这种需求溢出现象带动了城郊地区的租金变化。
26岁的孕妇林怡在北京门头沟区梧桐苑小区租了一套两居室,“今年每月租金涨了500元,我想着周边环境越来越好、房东也靠谱,就续租了。”链家地产梧桐苑店的置业顾问介绍,梧桐苑小区靠近北京西六环,交通日益方便,虽然房源不紧俏,但随着租户增多和周边环境发展,租金每年都在上涨,今年小区两居室涨幅在12%左右。
据伟业我爱我家市场研究院统计,今年5月通过北京我爱我家成交的房屋租赁量环比增长15.7%,月租金均价微升0.61%。
“由售转租”并不多见,租赁市场供求仍偏紧
“目前,北京、上海等一线城市,即使二手房买卖市场遇冷,房源也不会大量涌入租赁市场,因此二手房买卖市场的变化与租金涨跌没有太大关系。”链家研究院院长杨现领说,如今在北京房市,80%的购房交易需求是换房,即将要出售的房子都还处于业主自住状态,房主买不到新房就不会卖旧房,“由售转租”现象并不多见。
中国城市房地产研究院院长谢逸枫分析,二手房租赁市场如何变化,还要看租赁需求与房源供应量的关系。首先,北京等一线城市流动人口多,需求集中,即使有少部分“由售转租”的房源流入市场,租赁市场仍存在租房需求大于房源供应、租户需求与房源质量不能较好匹配的现象,租金没有明显下降。其次,租房需求从市中心向城市郊区溢出,促使核心地区二手房租金的上涨速度变缓、涨幅缩小,城郊的二手房租金开始上涨。
“季节性规律也是影响租金变化的重要因素之一。”谢逸枫说,一线城市租房群体以年轻人为主,每年7、8月是毕业生租房旺季,供给紧张,租金涨幅明显。国家加快规范二手房租赁市场,加大对违规租房的打击力度,也是目前二手房租金小幅上涨的原因之一。
中原地产首席分析师张大伟认为,提高租赁住房供应量是稳定租赁市场的关键。“如果北京计划建设的50万套租赁住房真能投入市场,能一定程度上稳定二手房租赁市场。”张大伟说,政府还应通过调整产业结构、引导产业转移等方法合理控制一线城市人口数量,避免租房需求病态增长。
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