Why are my bitcoins / day going down (BTC guild)?

[marvinmartian]

Just set up some machines on Friday.  I'm at about 3.3 Ghash.  Since then I've been trying to get a handle on how many btc/day I should be making.  According to this site:

    http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php

I should be making about 3.7 btc/day.  So I was watching my btc/day go up (I only had 1 computer running prior to Friday).  The ratio got pretty close to 3.7 but has been declining steadily now.  I'm below 3. 

Mining primarily on BTC guild this week.  I checked the block stats and it's not an error in the site's btc/day calculation.  So I'm a bit puzzled.

Why are my btc/day going down?  From what I know, the difficulty level hasn't changed much.  The site still shows 877227 which is in line with what I've seen elsewhere.

At this rate, I'll be mining less than 1 btc/day in a few weeks.  That makes no sense to me.

Comments / input appreciated.

Thanks,

N

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[irishmick]

If you look on the block statistics page BTCGuilds luck is -14% atm. So if you take your past 24 HR collected is it 14% less, roughly, than you think you should be getting? Your miners could be taking a little longer than average also and you could be getting a higher pct of stale shares.

Those are my thoughts. Maybe someone with more experience can chime in also.

[HatlessCat]

I noticed the same, I just asked on IRC and an admin confirmed above posters assumptions.

[marvinmartian]

Ah, I see.  I wasn't clear on what those luck values were.  Thanks.  Now I can google more about luck and how difficulty changes over time with btc mining.

N

[Moussekateer]

Variance old bean. The time taken to solve each share everyone is sent is random, but has an average related to the difficulty. On smaller pools the variance will be huge because there's so few workers and they could easily have a bad streak. Buy just as likely they can have a good streak. On larger pools you have less variance because you have much more workers so bad streaks/good streaks are averaged out. But it doesn't matter which pool you use because over a long time span they average out to your expected earnings (not taking fees into account), just depends whether you like frequent small payments, or infrequent large payments.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Also, If hashrate has increased, your % of the total hashrate is lower!
As for luck, the current difficulty is 876,954! If a block is solved in <876,954 shares, it is considered "lucky". If more, then it is "unlucky".