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Author Topic: Game Theory of Segwit2x and BIP148 UASF  (Read 787 times)
CuriousInvestor (OP)
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July 18, 2017, 06:21:58 PM
 #1

Hey everyone,

I wrote an article explaining the game theory and incentives of all the chaos that is currently happening with Bitcoin. It is to clear up all the concepts and go into the mindsets of the big actors of this Bitcoin war.

https://medium.com/@stevenchen009/bitcoin-forks-ulterior-motives-cf953e4ec7e0

Please take a look if you are interested in this topic. Thanks!
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July 18, 2017, 06:58:41 PM
 #2

Hey everyone,

I wrote an article explaining the game theory and incentives of all the chaos that is currently happening with Bitcoin. It is to clear up all the concepts and go into the mindsets of the big actors of this Bitcoin war.

https://medium.com/@stevenchen009/bitcoin-forks-ulterior-motives-cf953e4ec7e0

Please take a look if you are interested in this topic. Thanks!
Nice.
You not forget about impossibility of soft fork?
Quote
In block N have segwit transaction from A->B .
In block N+1 have normal transaction from B->C .
Block N+1 rejected by BITCOIN of 2014 (CLASSIC) because B have zero balance.
Wouldn't that then make SegWit a hard fork if clients do not accept it? Are you referring to miners or regular wallet users in this example?
Just send RAW not segwit transaction in block N+1 from B->C.
New segwit software (of miners) will accept it, BITCOIN of 2014 (CLASSIC) will reject.
It can do anyone who own BTC to pay transactions fee.

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July 18, 2017, 07:06:51 PM
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Looks like SW opens the Pandora Box?

 Shocked   Huh   Roll Eyes

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July 18, 2017, 08:03:03 PM
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Looks like SW opens the Pandora Box?

 Shocked   Huh   Roll Eyes

Indeed it does, it is like a poker game to see who folds first because a showdown would be disastrous.
Meuh6879
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July 18, 2017, 08:52:33 PM
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Awesome explanation.
Linked everywhere !
CuriousInvestor (OP)
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July 18, 2017, 10:22:16 PM
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Appreciate it, thank you so much.
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July 18, 2017, 11:18:38 PM
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Great article thanks for taking the time! I send it to my friends who are kind of overwhelmed and need a good synopsis. I know Bitmain supports SegWit2X; was among the first pools to signal BIP91. If SegWit2X locks in before July 29 UASF 148 should not orphan blocks and Bitmain's Bitcoin ABC should not activate. That is my understanding anyway. Bitmain seems to be eager to hardfork even if SegWit locks in; ViaBTC is even going to start pre-selling hashing power on the BCC chain in a few days. What do you think are the odds Bitmain goes ahead with a Bitcoin ABC fork regardless?

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July 19, 2017, 02:35:41 AM
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Great article thanks for taking the time! I send it to my friends who are kind of overwhelmed and need a good synopsis. I know Bitmain supports SegWit2X; was among the first pools to signal BIP91. If SegWit2X locks in before July 29 UASF 148 should not orphan blocks and Bitmain's Bitcoin ABC should not activate. That is my understanding anyway. Bitmain seems to be eager to hardfork even if SegWit locks in; ViaBTC is even going to start pre-selling hashing power on the BCC chain in a few days. What do you think are the odds Bitmain goes ahead with a Bitcoin ABC fork regardless?

My opinion is that the odds are low given Bitmain cannot afford to do this especially after Segwit is activated through Segwit2x. There won't be much hash rate supporting this for one and they cannot afford to mine something that isn't the main BTC chain (this is biased which one is the main one, we can say original one with Segwit), they'd be losing too much money from operation costs. I think it is in their least interest to cause a chain split and I think that Bitmain ABC was to assure Segwit2x gets passed because no one would want to risk a chain split with BIP148 UASF. That is my two cents, hope it helped.
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July 19, 2017, 07:58:02 AM
 #9

Hey everyone,

I wrote an article explaining the game theory and incentives of all the chaos that is currently happening with Bitcoin. It is to clear up all the concepts and go into the mindsets of the big actors of this Bitcoin war.

https://medium.com/@stevenchen009/bitcoin-forks-ulterior-motives-cf953e4ec7e0

Please take a look if you are interested in this topic. Thanks!

Very interesting read, thanks! You are obviously right, fork threats are all about economic leverages, miners try to scare users with their forks, but it's actually a bluff, because they can't mine coin that will be rejected by the market. Segwit2x clearly shows that they are scared of BIP 148, they have already lost the battle for SegWit, the question is - are they going to fight for bigger blocks in November? Will they try to convince community that 2mb fork is the true Bitcoin, effectively trying to push Core away, or will they fold? I think companies should release their statements about potential HF in November, just as they did about all other forks.

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CuriousInvestor (OP)
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July 19, 2017, 11:27:10 PM
 #10

Hey everyone,

I wrote an article explaining the game theory and incentives of all the chaos that is currently happening with Bitcoin. It is to clear up all the concepts and go into the mindsets of the big actors of this Bitcoin war.

https://medium.com/@stevenchen009/bitcoin-forks-ulterior-motives-cf953e4ec7e0

Please take a look if you are interested in this topic. Thanks!

Very interesting read, thanks! You are obviously right, fork threats are all about economic leverages, miners try to scare users with their forks, but it's actually a bluff, because they can't mine coin that will be rejected by the market. Segwit2x clearly shows that they are scared of BIP 148, they have already lost the battle for SegWit, the question is - are they going to fight for bigger blocks in November? Will they try to convince community that 2mb fork is the true Bitcoin, effectively trying to push Core away, or will they fold? I think companies should release their statements about potential HF in November, just as they did about all other forks.

I completely agree and I think it will be dependent on a lot of factors. In the upcoming months I can see miners and developers releasing more statements after Segwit gets pushed through. I think it will also depend on how much the extra capacity from Segwit alleviates the current transaction demand. If the capacity can consistently support the transaction demand, then I think that the demand for a hard fork will be diminished. However, I think it also depends on the success of Lightning Network after Segwit is activated as well. Let's all pray for a smooth ride.
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