Where do you think bitcoin will be in about 8 years?

[notig]

In 8 years the block reward should be halved a couple more times.. so 25 > 12.5 > 6.25.

6.25 bitcoins per block reward!

[blackreplica]

If it lasts that long im pretty sure price could be at or near 1000usd per btc. The real question is whether we actually get there or not

[phatsphere]

8 years is after 2020. by then, almost everyone on the planet has internet access all the time. certainly, several very simple payment systems will be available to almost everyone, but it's likely not the current bitcoin system. it might rather server like a reserve currency behind them to settle payments between them.

[UltimateReaper]

The real question is whether or not World War 3 breaks out.

And depends on the technological revelations in that time-frame.

Too many variables. Best case scenario for BTC though is that it's a strong currency, I wouldn't expect it to be on top though.

[vokain]

The real question is whether or not World War 3 breaks out.

And depends on the technological revelations in that time-frame.

Too many variables. Best case scenario for BTC though is that it's a strong currency, I wouldn't expect it to be on top though.

yeah..so what else?

[Welsh]

Where do I think bitcoin will be in 8 years time? 8 years is a odd number.

Hmm, I think by then most of the companies which we see today not accepting bitcoin will be accepting it.

If we do make it 8 long years, then I think the bitcoin value will have shot up.

[UltimateReaper]

The real question is whether or not World War 3 breaks out.

And depends on the technological revelations in that time-frame.

Too many variables. Best case scenario for BTC though is that it's a strong currency, I wouldn't expect it to be on top though.

yeah..so what else?

Political collapse in China?

A new era of manga and anime....

[nicolazza]

bitcoin will really be "cash of internet" and 1btc will be approx 2,500$

[lebing]

bitcoin will really be "cash of internet" and 1btc will be approx 2,500$

You people have no vision! Add 2-3 orders of magnitude to that number.

Yeah exactly. In 8 years, the price of bitcoin will be $50,000+ each or 0. Nothing in between.

[batcoin]

bitcoin will really be "cash of internet" and 1btc will be approx 2,500$

You people have no vision! Add 2-3 orders of magnitude to that number.

Yeah exactly. In 8 years, the price of bitcoin will be $50,000+ each or 0. Nothing in between.

That's only 1 order of magnitude. Didn't you read Vlad's post?

[Hfleer]

Best guess is $500-$3,500.

[Streets 2.0]

bitcoin will really be "cash of internet" and 1btc will be approx 2,500$

You people have no vision! Add 2-3 orders of magnitude to that number.

This.

I am betting on the long term value to be quite astronomical, much larger than one normally imagines, especially with the word spreading exponentially each day.

[jhansen858]

So far, if you look at the price on a (best fit removing all the bubbles) log scale (http://blockchain.info/charts/market-price?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=1&address=) for all time, the price has been increasing by between 200% and 500% per year.  So lets assume that the initial expansion was faster then any other time in history and we have a slowing of new adopters to a more realistic rate.  Lets even throw in a bad year for the hell of it.  See my projections below.  This works out to about 91% increase a year for the next 8 years.  Of course I just pulled all of these projections out of my ass and they have no basis in fact.  

July 2010 - $0
July 2011 - $2 (200% increase)
July 2012 - $7 (250% increase)
July 2013 - $44 (520% increase) (yes, this is the true value of bitcoin at the moment IMO)
----------------------- PROJECTIONS ----------------------
July 2014 - $154 (350% increase)
July 2015 - $385 (250% increase)
July 2016 - $577 (50% increase)
July 2017 - $721 (25% increase)
July 2018 - $811 (12% increase)
July 2019 - $859 (6% increase)
July 2020 - $773 (10% loss)
July 2021 - $835 (8% increase)

[nwbitcoin]

In 8 years, bitcoin will have evolved into something totally different!

Bitcoin will be work about $100 as a collector item - but the blockchain will be being used by Visa in the core of their digital visa credit card - a way for anyone and everyone to move money around the internet in a method almost identical to bitcoin - except, you will need to use their wallets, and need to register to have a wallet that their coins will work with.

It might not be Visa, but in 8 years, the concept of bitcoin will have become accepted within the banking industry as workable, and being offered to the public - at a price!

However, your bitcoins and altcoins will be practically worthless!

[jhansen858]

How will they get me to stop accepting them over their alternative? 

[Missionary]

In 8 years, I am counting on the price to be either $100k+ or close to $0. As long as Internet is still around and no critical flaws has been found in the protocol I see that first number as highly probable.

[Invictus]

In 8 years, I am counting on the price to be either $100k+ or close to $0. As long as Internet is still around and no critical flaws has been found in the protocol I see that first number as highly probable.

market cap:

$100= 1,1bn
$1000 = 11bn
$10000 = 111bn
$100000 = 1,1 trillion dollarz | world gdp about 60-70 trillion dollarz right now

MV=PQ
Moneyz times velocity = "GDP"

Price per bitcoin = Bitcoin economy GDP divided by velocity (no clue what the velocity of bitcoin is atm)


Because money supply is fix the price goes up if the economy grows. Wait for Bitcoin economy to grow = PROFIT.

I think the price right now is too high due to speculation. But if we get more users and a better economy. Right now we have about 3 million standard client downloads.

Let's get that number to some more millions, suppose the Bitcoin economy will be 50 bn dollarz in 2 years, velocity = 5 = 10bn market cap = about $1000 per BTC.

I don't think Bitcoin will compete with the normal currencies much, it is a international internet economy moneyz. So how big is the market? No clue. Maybe one trillion? let's guess velocity = 10 = 100bn market cap = $10000 per bitcoin.

¥€$!

[xavier]

$0

Here are some wild speculations. Lets see if any of them come true ( if these forums still exist in 8 years )

In order of most probable, IMO

1- people abandon bitcoin because of scalability issue
2- government block bitcoin exchanges and ask ISP to filter the protocol
3- sha-256 encryption is broken
4- bitcoin developers make stupid design decision that causes bitcoin to implode and other all coin to take stage
5- people realise idea of distributed currency system technically in feasible and all alt coins die out
6- bitcoin still going but goes underground after government regulation
7- governments realise unable to regulate bitcoin , bitcoin gains mass adoption and all existing world currencies cease to exist, to be replaced by bitcoin
8- governments and banks introduce their own version of bitcoin that successfully outcompetes bitcoin, due to government ability to legislate against bitcoin

[Odalv]

8- governments and banks introduce their own version of bitcoin that successfully outcompetes bitcoin, due to government ability to legislate against bitcoin

Do you mean new SHIT(alt)-coin ?

[solex]

If you want to let your enthusiasm off its leash, then just draw this trend-line forward a few more years.
It will plateau eventually. But when? If it is in 8 years then Bitcoin would be a major world currency used in most transactions.