baritus (OP)
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 966
Merit: 1052
|
 |
May 12, 2013, 08:04:22 PM |
|
In 7d 21hr 42m 15s BTC difficulty will go up by 76.68%. Thoughts?
|
Digitalcoin - Sha256, Scrypt, x11 Mining - Multi-algorithm & One Click Masternodes - Founded in 2013
|
|
|
|
Caesium
|
 |
May 12, 2013, 08:04:58 PM |
|
Wait a bit longer after a difficulty re-target before panicking over the next wildly inaccurate guesses  |
|
|
|
baritus (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 966
Merit: 1052
|
|
May 12, 2013, 08:06:49 PM |
|
I did the estimate based on today's rates..
Do you expect people to jump off right before the next diff jump?
|
Digitalcoin - Sha256, Scrypt, x11 Mining - Multi-algorithm & One Click Masternodes - Founded in 2013
|
|
|
|
Caesium
|
|
May 12, 2013, 08:13:45 PM |
|
Difficulty has just changed literally an hour ago or something. Most of the difficulty prediction scripts out there use the number of blocks found since the most recent difficulty change, and the amount of time they were found in, then extrapolate that to work out how long it'll take to find all 2016 blocks, and comparing that to the 14 days it "should" take. Since only 8 blocks have been found there is nowhere near enough data to extrapolate upon. A better idea would be to use the time it took to find the last rolling 2016 (or a bit less) blocks and work with that, maybe some calculators do that already but not the one I use on IRC |
|
|
|
os2sam
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3586
Merit: 1098
Think for yourself
|
|
May 12, 2013, 08:15:42 PM |
|
In 7d 21hr 42m 15s BTC difficulty will go up by 76.68%. Thoughts?
Here's a thought. So what. |
A: Because it messes up the order in which people normally read text.
Q: Why is top-posting such a bad thing?
A: Top-posting.
Q: What is the most annoying thing on usenet and in e-mail?
|
|
|
baritus (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 966
Merit: 1052
|
|
May 12, 2013, 08:16:08 PM |
|
Well it depends how many more ASICs come online in the next week, it might be an underestimate..
|
Digitalcoin - Sha256, Scrypt, x11 Mining - Multi-algorithm & One Click Masternodes - Founded in 2013
|
|
|
|
Caesium
|
|
May 12, 2013, 08:16:48 PM |
|
It is a massive overestimate right now |
|
|
|
baritus (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 966
Merit: 1052
|
|
May 12, 2013, 08:19:29 PM |
|
It is a massive overestimate right now I like hearing that. I looked at different calculators and they weren't so different. 63-73% |
Digitalcoin - Sha256, Scrypt, x11 Mining - Multi-algorithm & One Click Masternodes - Founded in 2013
|
|
|
|
Caesium
|
|
May 12, 2013, 08:42:04 PM |
|
What's your calculator saying now out of interest? |
|
|
|
|
jhansen858
|
|
May 13, 2013, 06:09:55 AM |
|
|
Hi forum: 1DDpiEt36VTJsiJunyBc3XtG6CcSAnsQ4p
|
|
|
Leon D
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 50
Merit: 0
|
|
May 13, 2013, 06:55:14 AM |
|
Thanks for the link. Anyone else think difficulty will re-stabilize in the near future as we start to see how the increase in ASICs plays out? |
|
|
|
|
Amph
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3248
Merit: 1070
|
|
May 13, 2013, 07:44:21 AM
Last edit: May 13, 2013, 10:55:34 AM by Amph |
|
i wish they all stop mining for one day, so i can make few coins, than they can restart lol
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shevek
|
|
May 13, 2013, 10:09:47 AM |
|
The actual just set difficulty was born underestimated...  |
Proposals for improving bitcoin are like asses: everybody has one
1SheveKuPHpzpLqSvPSavik9wnC51voBa
|
|
|
miningusa
Member
Offline
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
|
|
May 13, 2013, 11:18:11 AM |
|
whaaaa scary stats!!  |
|
|
|
|
os2sam
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3586
Merit: 1098
Think for yourself
|
|
May 13, 2013, 11:35:29 AM |
|
whaaaa scary stats!! Not Stat's just a WAG. There's nothing scary about difficulty re-targeting, happens every 2016 blocks. |
A: Because it messes up the order in which people normally read text.
Q: Why is top-posting such a bad thing?
A: Top-posting.
Q: What is the most annoying thing on usenet and in e-mail?
|
|
|
|
GigaWave
|
|
May 22, 2013, 05:07:14 PM |
|
Difficulty is a product of luck?? WHAT?? OMG.... Variance... What is that scary word!?!
|
|
|
|
|
MagicBit15
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
Let's Start a Cryptolution!!
|
|
May 22, 2013, 05:19:22 PM |
|
Where did you get this calculation from? Just curious?
|
|
|
|
ripple
Member
Offline
Activity: 287
Merit: 10
|
|
May 23, 2013, 05:32:21 PM |
|
The flow diagram shows the time line for Avalon selling it's chips in bulk, in lots of ten thousand to distributors. This extra estimated 84 TH/s, at around $2.8 million in chip value, could have an enormous impact on mining output and difficulty levels thereafter, and is expected at end July 2013. There is a high correlation between the price of Bitcoin's and increases in difficulty levels. As the Bitcoin price increases so does it drive resources into play to be used for mining Bitcoins. Apart from the specifics of the sale of ASIC chips, estimates of future difficulty generally show increasing difficulty levels because of the expectation that new technology will bring about faster and less power hungry methods to mine for Bitcoin's. As long as the Bitcoin price holds up, we should expect general technology driven increasing levels of difficulty. The increase in difficulty may continue as before until end July or later, when we may see steeper levels followed by stabilization to more standard increases thereafter. |
|
|
|
|
