[UPDATED]: The OFFICIAL SegWit2x Lock-in Thread

[Minecache]

80 % miners vote for Segwit but 20 % Big- blockers oppose to them. They may build their own coin BCC bitcoin cash. They will run their own pools, mining, nodes and nework.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/segwit-reaches-80-of-the-hashrate-likely-to-soon-activate/
But everything can be changed, let's wait for the Aug 1. Hope the price of bitcoin will not dump because of this issue.

Wow... what an "everyone wins" scenario as we'll all have coins on both chains, and everyone can use and continue to support and invest the version of Bitcoin they want.

Really confused now. :/

In case there would be a hard fork, we can have two coins? Is that what it means? I can spend bitcoin1 and bitcoin2 independently without spending each other? Or is it if I spend bitcoin1, I lose the chance to spend bitcoin2?

As long as you don't suffer a replay attack vector yes you will have doubled your coinage.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Realize that most of the miners signaling BIP91 are not actually running the btc1 client, just a patched version of Core. For the SegWit2X 3 month hard fork to occur a majority of miners would actually have to follow through and switch from Core to btc1. To complicate matters Bitmain has been announcing they will fork Bitcoin to Bitcoin ABC on Aug 2. They say they will not proceed if UASF does not activate, but we will have to see. They may just go ahead with the fork regardless. If you own the private keys to your bitcoin now you will also own the same amount of Bitcoin ABC if the fork occurs.

[timvim]

80 % miners vote for Segwit but 20 % Big- blockers oppose to them. They may build their own coin BCC bitcoin cash. They will run their own pools, mining, nodes and nework.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/segwit-reaches-80-of-the-hashrate-likely-to-soon-activate/
But everything can be changed, let's wait for the Aug 1. Hope the price of bitcoin will not dump because of this issue.

Wow... what an "everyone wins" scenario as we'll all have coins on both chains, and everyone can use and continue to support and invest the version of Bitcoin they want.

Really confused now. :/

In case there would be a hard fork, we can have two coins? Is that what it means? I can spend bitcoin1 and bitcoin2 independently without spending each other? Or is it if I spend bitcoin1, I lose the chance to spend bitcoin2?

If you handle things correctly, you can spend coins on both chains. It might be a bit complicated but info will likely be available should that day come. In case of a split, don't touch the coins until things clear to avoid double spending and loosing coins on one chain.

Important note: In case of a chain split, your two versions of bitcoin WILL NOT be worth double your original money. In a best case scenario, value would redistribute proportionally to the support of each chain, so that your new coins combined are worth what your old coins were.

In reality however, such an event would likely cause massive market disruption, and decreasing trust and confidence of both chains. Exchange rate would plummet. The powerful trademark "Bitcoin" would be substantially weakened. I find it not unlikely that in the event of a chain split, we could see -90% on both sides, at least initially. See what happened to Ethereum when a hard fork over the DAO hack resulted in the blockchain split into ETH and ETC. Almost all value was erased initially. Both sides have long since regained, something I never would have guessed back then.

In my opinion, a chain split is something WE MUST AVOID AT ALL COST, to keep the confidence in Bitcoin as a currency. Although I think Bitmain will pull of their clown "Bitcoin ABC" later this year. No big harm done there though, no one would consider that bizarre fork a serious aspirant to be the true Bitcoin, market will not react catastrophically. Jihan will have to use his worthless private Bitmaincoin himself.

[timvim]

18 out of 33 left. For this to not lock in, we need to see a sudden drop in support from at least ~34% of the previous supporters.

Which means no single entity have any viable means to sabotage this, feels good If both AntPool and BTC.top would suddenly stop signaling, things would get tight.

[Minecache]

18 out of 33 left. For this to not lock in, we need to see a sudden drop in support from at least ~34% of the previous supporters.

Which means no single entity have any viable means to sabotage this, feels good If both AntPool and BTC.top would suddenly stop signaling, things would get tight.

Never question the ability of bitcoiners not to create some fuckin' drama. Sometimes this industry feels like a kindergarten.

[keefryan]

Hi  Can some pls post a link to the best website to monitor this pls. ?
Thanks.   Kr

[Route66Retro]

https://www.xbt.eu/

I don't know if it is the best, but it's the one I've been following.

[Minecache]

Hi  Can some pls post a link to the best website to monitor this pls. ?
Thanks.   Kr

https://coin.dance/blocks

[nibor]

80 % miners vote for Segwit but 20 % Big- blockers oppose to them. They may build their own coin BCC bitcoin cash. They will run their own pools, mining, nodes and nework.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/segwit-reaches-80-of-the-hashrate-likely-to-soon-activate/
But everything can be changed, let's wait for the Aug 1. Hope the price of bitcoin will not dump because of this issue.

Wow... what an "everyone wins" scenario as we'll all have coins on both chains, and everyone can use and continue to support and invest the version of Bitcoin they want.

Really confused now. :/

In case there would be a hard fork, we can have two coins? Is that what it means? I can spend bitcoin1 and bitcoin2 independently without spending each other? Or is it if I spend bitcoin1, I lose the chance to spend bitcoin2?

Your 1 Bitcoin becomes 1 BitcoinCore and 1 BitcoinBTC1 the instant there is a hard fork. You can - if you are very careful spend each independently. However miners are not so lucky - after the split they must chose - they can only mine Core OR BTC1 - not both.

But given that there is such huge Miner support for BitcoinBTC1, BitcoinCore has a problem - if 80% of the miners switch to mining BitcoinBTC1 as they are currently demonstrating they will then there will be very few miners on BitcoinCore so blocks will take 5 time longer - 50mins (assuming 20% stick with BitcoinCore - or 10 times - so 1h40mins if only 10% stay mining). This is not an issue - everything will still works - just blocks may be full, fees may go up. Bigger issue is that rather than taking 2 weeks for the difficulty to reduce and so block times reduce it will take 10 weeks (or 20 weeks if only 10% stay with core). But again this is not a show stopper.

The big decider will be the relative price after the split. If BitcoinCore becomes worth a lot less - say 20% the price of BitcoinBTC1 then miners will be financially motivate to switch to BitcoinBTC1 - as will receive 4 times the income (until the difficulty resets 10 weeks later). This will then exacerbate the block time issue and the wait for a difficulty reset. And if too many switch from Core-> BTC1 the BitcoinCore blockchain may just grind to a halt and so become worthless.

Obviously the converse may happen if the price switches the other way - the miners are very financially driven so may stop supporting BTC1 very fast if the price of BTC1 drops vs BitcoinCore!

Then the other thing to consider is that every Bitcoin owner has in effect a vote. As they can sell one coin and buy the other. So moving the relative price - and so influencing the outcome. And since we think Bitcoin holders feelings are much more evenly split over Core vs BTC1 if a few big holders are brave enough to dump BTC1 straight after the HardFork and buy BitcoinCore the game could suddenly change! And am sure some of the Core developers are big holders of bitcoin....

My advice would be to just do nothing during the HardFork period until the dust settles - unless you are a keen gambler!

[Sonellion]

The price may be increasing once again and people realizing that this could happen without a chain split but guess what, we will see panic in November when the block size part comes in and on that time, It will be just another opportunity to buy and accumulate more bitcoins in your wallet.

The block size part could easily go through without a hitch unless some of the miners cause melodrama, but why should they, after all agreeing to segwit2x

[timvim]

18 out of 33 left. For this to not lock in, we need to see a sudden drop in support from at least ~34% of the previous supporters.

Which means no single entity have any viable means to sabotage this, feels good If both AntPool and BTC.top would suddenly stop signaling, things would get tight.

Never question the ability of bitcoiners not to create some fuckin' drama. Sometimes this industry feels like a kindergarten.

Very true indeed. Thats why I have been updating https://www.xbt.eu every minute since yesterday. Fear of the capriciousness of Jihan and his band. Looking forward to this getting over with, so GF can stop nagging me for being withdrawn   

[nibor]

The price may be increasing once again and people realizing that this could happen without a chain split but guess what, we will see panic in November when the block size part comes in and on that time, It will be just another opportunity to buy and accumulate more bitcoins in your wallet.

The block size part could easily go through without a hitch unless some of the miners cause melodrama, but why should they, after all agreeing to segwit2x

Think only risk for hard fork is someone dumping BitcoinBTC1 and buying BitcoinCore instantly after the hardfork for a few hours when there will be little volume on the exchanges and getting a load of headlines that BitcoinCore is worth more than BitcoinBTC1 - at which point some less committed miners start switching from BTC1 back to Core....

[favila]

The price may be increasing once again and people realizing that this could happen without a chain split but guess what, we will see panic in November when the block size part comes in and on that time, It will be just another opportunity to buy and accumulate more bitcoins in your wallet.

The block size part could easily go through without a hitch unless some of the miners cause melodrama, but why should they, after all agreeing to segwit2x

As we can see compromise is more profitable than continuing the fight. Bitcoin has been going up and I don't think the miners are going to risk that anymore after coming to an acceptable compromise.

[Minecache]

18 out of 33 left. For this to not lock in, we need to see a sudden drop in support from at least ~34% of the previous supporters.

Which means no single entity have any viable means to sabotage this, feels good If both AntPool and BTC.top would suddenly stop signaling, things would get tight.

Never question the ability of bitcoiners not to create some fuckin' drama. Sometimes this industry feels like a kindergarten.

Very true indeed. Thats why I have been updating https://www.xbt.eu every minute since yesterday. Fear of the capriciousness of Jihan and his band. Looking forward to this getting over with, so GF can stop nagging me for being withdrawn   

My wife is the same. 

[Emoclaw]

I'm now going to sleep. When I wake up BIP91 will have locked in which means it will be one of the most beautiful mornings.
Since I'll be sleeping the moment it locks-in, I'll go ahead and say it now. Congratulations, Bitcoin!

[timvim]

18 out of 33 left. For this to not lock in, we need to see a sudden drop in support from at least ~34% of the previous supporters.

Which means no single entity have any viable means to sabotage this, feels good If both AntPool and BTC.top would suddenly stop signaling, things would get tight.

Never question the ability of bitcoiners not to create some fuckin' drama. Sometimes this industry feels like a kindergarten.

Very true indeed. Thats why I have been updating https://www.xbt.eu every minute since yesterday. Fear of the capriciousness of Jihan and his band. Looking forward to this getting over with, so GF can stop nagging me for being withdrawn   

My wife is the same. 

Hehe, how can staring annoyedly on exchange rate graphs and forum threads for days on end be considered boring behavior? Glad I lured her into both my reef tank and brewing hobbies before I got to far into crypto, now at least she has other things to do while I'm following the drama here.

[Sonellion]

The price may be increasing once again and people realizing that this could happen without a chain split but guess what, we will see panic in November when the block size part comes in and on that time, It will be just another opportunity to buy and accumulate more bitcoins in your wallet.

The block size part could easily go through without a hitch unless some of the miners cause melodrama, but why should they, after all agreeing to segwit2x

Think only risk for hard fork is someone dumping BitcoinBTC1 and buying BitcoinCore instantly after the hardfork for a few hours when there will be little volume on the exchanges and getting a load of headlines that BitcoinCore is worth more than BitcoinBTC1 - at which point some less committed miners start switching from BTC1 back to Core....

I expect BitcoinCore 0.14.3 to be compatible with the larger blocks of BitcoinBTC1. Core devs wouldn't try to make people use a wallet that will be on a fork with no hash rate at all...

[timvim]

Woa, Antpool mined 4 blocks in 3 minutes, rare one. One was empty though..

[nibor]

The price may be increasing once again and people realizing that this could happen without a chain split but guess what, we will see panic in November when the block size part comes in and on that time, It will be just another opportunity to buy and accumulate more bitcoins in your wallet.

The block size part could easily go through without a hitch unless some of the miners cause melodrama, but why should they, after all agreeing to segwit2x

Think only risk for hard fork is someone dumping BitcoinBTC1 and buying BitcoinCore instantly after the hardfork for a few hours when there will be little volume on the exchanges and getting a load of headlines that BitcoinCore is worth more than BitcoinBTC1 - at which point some less committed miners start switching from BTC1 back to Core....

I expect BitcoinCore 0.14.3 to be compatible with the larger blocks of BitcoinBTC1. Core devs wouldn't try to make people use a wallet that will be on a fork with no hash rate at all...

Agree - the miner support now is nearly 95% if you include those signalling /NYA/ - at which point a hardfork is very safe - especially if BitcoinCore got behind it as that would drag the user base with it - and that would allow them to retain their control of the codebase - just with a slight bloody nose. Am sure as soon a 2Meg block happens BTC1 will shutdown with a job-done sign.

Who is brave enough to submit that pull request on GitHub!

[Joohansson]

I'm now going to sleep. When I wake up BIP91 will have locked in which means it will be one of the most beautiful mornings.
Since I'll be sleeping the moment it locks-in, I'll go ahead and say it now. Congratulations, Bitcoin!

Same here  (Though I will probably wake up in a couple of hours just of curiosity of the price)