[2017-07-21] predicting bitcoin markets is near impossible

[Slow death]

Predicting bitcoin markets is near impossible



There has been a lot of fear, doubt, and panic sweeping through the cryptocurrency world the last few days. Many people made doom and gloom bitcoin price predictions, especially this last Sunday when the price went into a bomb-propelled plunge. People and media sources said this could herald the end of bitcoin or suggest the”bubble” had popped. However, just a few days later, the price started to skyrocket again, vexing naysayers and overturning shortsighted predictions. Looks like they ate their words.

Bloody Sunday Price Analysis

For perspective, lets analyze recent price movement in greater detail. Prior to last weekend, the price was hovering healthily in the upper $2,000 range and flirting with a $3,000 peak. As the weekend rolled around, the price began to plummet. This occurred in lockstep with fearful signals that the bitcoin community would not be able to reach consensus on the scaling debate. So during the wee hours of Sunday, the price dropped roughly 10% to a devastating $1851.49, a record low in recent weeks.

Catastrophic Media Headlines and Price Predictions

During the price downturn, media sources exacerbated fear by writing clickbait headlines to scare people into a panicked frenzy. CBS news wrote on July 14, “Did a Bitcoin Bubble just Burst”? On July 17 Fortune wrote “Wipeout: Bitcoin and Other Digital Currencies in Price Collapse.”

https://news.bitcoin.com/predicting-bitcoin-markets-is-near-impossible/

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[zapphirecoins]

I have an analysis of the possibility that certain Groups play a price by buying large amounts and holding in their accounts, because they know that soon the south korean country will apply the standard bitcoin as their payment tool like japanese did.

[Kemarit]

Bitcoin market is purely speculative. That's why price prediction is really difficult. I believed that the price is driven by news around it. Right now with the BIP91 locked-in (279 blocks until rejecting non-SegWit blocks), the price of bitcoin soars dramatically in the last 24 hours. And prior to the good news, we see a lot of FUD waves around the corner, which causes panic making investors sold their bitcoin without hesitation that's why the price went down to ~$1900. The price reacts whenever we see positive or negative news, that why it is really very difficult even for a senior market analyst to really predict where the price of bitcoin is heading.

[lllaqpt]

I have an analysis of the possibility that certain Groups play a price by buying large amounts and holding in their accounts, because they know that soon the south korean country will apply the standard bitcoin as their payment tool like japanese did.

I also hold the opinion that it is possible to predict the price of bitcoin. I'm not saying that it can be predicted very accurately. But general trends and news affect the price of this coin, and this can be foreseen

[richardsNY]

But general trends and news affect the price of this coin, and this can be foreseen

News isn't much of a price driver anymore, aside from how things are going in current circumstances. Everything around the activation of SegWit is boiling at peak temperatures -- every bit of positive/negative scaling news will affect the market in a serious manner. In a way, there is always a decent opportunity to benefit from certain events. Take the recent dump to over $1800 as example -- people were acting like it came as a big surprise, but in reality, that decline was to be expected very close to the BIP91 signalling. If done well, people could have sold twice at very high levels -- (1) was at +$2700, and (2) a while later at near $3000 levels. Enough opportunities.

[dreamhouse]

this is the same as saying predicting stock market is impossible, lol. before we understand the internals of one thing, it always seems impossible, but the fact is, once we get it, we get it.

[Slow death]

this is the same as saying predicting stock market is impossible, lol. before we understand the internals of one thing, it always seems impossible, but the fact is, once we get it, we get it.

Many experienced analysts have already made their predictions about the future price of bitcoin, so far it seems that few win, we wait until the end of the year to find out if some analysts who said that by the end of the year the price of bitcoin will be  $5000, if they will be hit in their prediction or not

[hairyfairy]

In one moment I thought that one obsolete strategy (or saying) of stock market -"Sell in may and go away and come back on St. Ledgers Day" - can be valid also for Bitcoin. Fortuntely bitcoin recovered very soon.

[AK47-]

But I differ. With all that speculations of chain split it was evident that a huge fall is coming. That fall to $1800 was quite expected at least for me. With the positive wave of Sewit2x Bitcoin again came back to $2800 as expected. We can't really speculate the exact price but most of the times we can foresee a huge downfall or uptrend.

[SvenBomvolen]

Bitcoin market is purely speculative. That's why price prediction is really difficult. I believed that the price is driven by news around it. Right now with the BIP91 locked-in (279 blocks until rejecting non-SegWit blocks), the price of bitcoin soars dramatically in the last 24 hours. And prior to the good news, we see a lot of FUD waves around the corner, which causes panic making investors sold their bitcoin without hesitation that's why the price went down to ~$1900. The price reacts whenever we see positive or negative news, that why it is really very difficult even for a senior market analyst to really predict where the price of bitcoin is heading.

That's correct. Even trading experts can't say you how bitcoin's price will behave itself in next few weeks. Everybody just can give you a prognose that the price is going to raise and that is totally true, because of bitcoin's popularization and demand on this currency is growing, add to that countries one by one started to legalize and regulate bitcoin on their territory. That's the real success of Bitcoin. No doubt that the price will go higher, but we will not be able to skip some big falls, as the one that happend the last week, and such falls are unpredictable.

[tulikak]

Predicting bitcoin markets is near impossible

https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/header-1068x712.jpg

There has been a lot of fear, doubt, and panic sweeping through the cryptocurrency world the last few days. Many people made doom and gloom bitcoin price predictions, especially this last Sunday when the price went into a bomb-propelled plunge. People and media sources said this could herald the end of bitcoin or suggest the”bubble” had popped. However, just a few days later, the price started to skyrocket again, vexing naysayers and overturning shortsighted predictions. Looks like they ate their words.

Bloody Sunday Price Analysis

For perspective, lets analyze recent price movement in greater detail. Prior to last weekend, the price was hovering healthily in the upper $2,000 range and flirting with a $3,000 peak. As the weekend rolled around, the price began to plummet. This occurred in lockstep with fearful signals that the bitcoin community would not be able to reach consensus on the scaling debate. So during the wee hours of Sunday, the price dropped roughly 10% to a devastating $1851.49, a record low in recent weeks.

https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/chart-good-696x603.png

Catastrophic Media Headlines and Price Predictions

During the price downturn, media sources exacerbated fear by writing clickbait headlines to scare people into a panicked frenzy. CBS news wrote on July 14, “Did a Bitcoin Bubble just Burst”? On July 17 Fortune wrote “Wipeout: Bitcoin and Other Digital Currencies in Price Collapse.”

https://news.bitcoin.com/predicting-bitcoin-markets-is-near-impossible/

Bitcoin market is too volatile. I guess people are playing by their instincts. Hence it is a strong man's game. The ones who falter are destroyed while the latter ones are millionaires.

[iram1011]

The reason being we have a market which peaked to 100 billions, which is not used(with a few notable exceptions) in real use case scenarios. It's purely a speculative market. Since, cryptocurrency market isn't regulated, thus, pumps and dumps are quite common which otherwise would have been illegal. People are buying cryptocurrencies based on their past success contributing to all sort of bubbles.

But I differ. With all that speculations of chain split it was evident that a huge fall is coming. That fall to $1800 was quite expected at least for me. With the positive wave of Sewit2x Bitcoin again came back to $2800 as expected. We can't really speculate the exact price but most of the times we can foresee a huge downfall or uptrend.

Yup highly negative trends as was shown in past few weeks usually target towards a huge dip. So is the case with highly positive trends. But market becomes hard to speculate when there isn't any major happening.

[iamTom123]

Bitcoin has proven to be a very different beast and predicting its movement can be a very challenging task. This can be the big reason why there had been analysis and predictions which proved to be false. However, it is not really impossible but definitely difficult. There are Bitcoin traders who are really successful in what they do...I don't know if they are just lucky or maybe they really have this kind of connection with cryptocurrency. I also trade in Bittrex from time to time and I know that predicting a coin's path of action can be very challenging.

[Xavofat]

Not true.  The reality is that it's impossible for people who give accurate predictions about Bitcoin to mention them too often.

You see almost everyone who speculates about the future Bitcoin price is an idiot.  Not everyone, but this forum is a key example - everywhere except Wall Observer, people are making loads of stupid statements and they have loads of misconceptions about what's actually going on with scaling.  Despite this, many people still attempt to trade or speculate, without actually understanding what they're investing in fully.

So just having some kind of vague technical knowledge about BTC will give you the ability to evaluate its future value, or at least what it should be.  If you have knowledge that other people don't have but it'll probably affect the future price, it's not too hard to predict the long-term future price.

[veleten]

there is at least one manipulator playing bitcoin market
it is impossible to predict it,news and obvious price movements are one thing
but pretty "random" volume spikes are usually the results of the market being manipulated
it may or may not trigger the desired effects,but you can't deny that here are totally uncalled for
price movements that can't be explained