Probability of HARD FORK is 80% !

[teramit]

segWIT2x mining support is more than 85% https://coin.dance/blocks#proposals
BTC core nodes are nearly 80% https://coin.dance/nodes
usaf nodes 15%

if this goes like this we ll going to see a HARD FORK at 1 August.



I think HF is likely 80% will happen.
hours left
If you think different plz reply.



this message will be edited according to news

[1715003099]

1715003099

[1715003099]

1715003099

[1715003099]

1715003099

[1715003099]

1715003099

[1715003099]

1715003099

[N7Pathfinder]

segWIT2x mining support is more than 85% https://coin.dance/blocks#proposals
BTC core nodes are nearly 80% https://coin.dance/nodes
if this goes like this we ll going to see a HARD FORK at 1 August.


I think HF is likely 80% will happen.
15 days left
If you think different plz reply.

So what about this then??

https://coin.dance/poli

[iamTom123]

Oh well, there seems to be a little confusion here. Where should we look for the correct data as to the number of supporters for this and that? No wonder many are really apprehensive as to what can be on August 1 because we are dealing with contradictory information here.

So the question is: Will there be a hard fork or not? Sadly, no one can come up with a definite answer for that leading up to the last days of the month. Maybe the day before August 1, there would be sure answer to that question.

While we are all speculating the results of this scaling implementation, the market is having its own massacre...it is definitely red days!

[york780]

Hardfork is almost a fact. They already splitted Bitcoins testnet.

[el kaka22]

I guess there will be no need to get surprised / get panic on hard fork to take place. It seems it is mandatory for better environment. I believe in next 15 days those remaining 15% of miners also may start supporting segwit2x . In that case there will be no possibilities of chain split, I assume. I do not understand what is blocking them not to go with majority of the people. Also I want to know what will happen if they start supporting and updating their wallets to core after chain split happened ? The bitcoins which got mined in between time alone will stay as bitcoin derived altcoin (like BTC-classic) ?

[mol76]

Hard fork doesn't necessarily imply a chain split, i think... I am right?

[gentlemand]

That's surprising news to everyone in the entire world. A soft fork is planned for August 1st. The supposed hard fork is November but it won't happen. Up your reading comprehension.

[deisik]

segWIT2x mining support is more than 85% https://coin.dance/blocks#proposals
BTC core nodes are nearly 80% https://coin.dance/nodes
if this goes like this we ll going to see a HARD FORK at 1 August.

I think HF is likely 80% will happen.
15 days left
If you think different plz reply.

You seem to be confused

If SegWit2x gets accepted there won't be a hard fork on the 1st of August or soon thereafter. If this proposal is accepted, only the SegWit part will be activated in August and it doesn't require a hard fork. It is only in November-December the part which requires a real hardfork (2M blocks) will get activated. But it is yet too early to tell whether the SegWit2x proposal will get accepted in less than a week. If Antpool revokes their vote (which is quite possible), there will be no SegWit2x nor pure SegWit for about a year to come. Basically, we will be back to square one

[BrewMaster]

you are wrong about multiple things:
1. SegWit2x is not a hard fork it is a soft fork to activate SegWit at first and then based on their first article on medeum a hard fork to 2MB after 6 months.

2. 80% is not the probability of fork happening. it is only showing the current support that miners are showing and it is somewhere between 85% to 90% because of fluctuations.

[Denker]

segWIT2x mining support is more than 85% https://coin.dance/blocks#proposals
BTC core nodes are nearly 80% https://coin.dance/nodes
if this goes like this we ll going to see a HARD FORK at 1 August.

I think HF is likely 80% will happen.
15 days left
If you think different plz reply.

You seem to be confused

If SegWit2x gets accepted there won't be a hard fork on the 1st of August or soon thereafter. If this proposal is accepted, only the SegWit part will be activated in August and it doesn't require a hard fork. It is only in November-December the part which requires a real hardfork (2M blocks) will get activated. But it is yet too early to tell whether the SegWit2x will get accepted in less than a week. If Antpool revokes their vote (which is quite possible), there will be no SegWit2x nor pure SegWit for about a year to come. Basically, we will be back to square one

There's still BIP148! IF they get enough hashrate 20-25%, which I believe is possible, SegWit still can happen, no matter if Antpool (Jihan) revokes SegWit2x or not. So far it's all just signaling which has no aboslutely no weight. Nobody of us here knows what miners will run in the last minute when they have to decide.

[kwukduck]

Yea... No... You're either trolling or don't understand what you are talking about.

80% is the fraction of miners signalling support, major user support is also required.

[mikenz]

As long as SegWit2x Support is >80% there will be no UASF on 1st August (since aim of UASF is to force Miners to accept SegWit). 

Everything is fine.

[White sugar]

Read full story here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2017191.0

There is no way to be totally sure about what will happen. Miners may lie too.

[d5000]

Yea... No... You're either trolling or don't understand what you are talking about.

80% is the fraction of miners signalling support, major user support is also required.

No. Read BIP91. Users will stay on the longest chain and both BIP91 (Segwit2x) and BIP148 are soft forks. If the longest chain is the UASF-BIP91-Segwit2x chain then this chain will also be accepted by legacy clients. There's no need to explicitly support BIP148 or BIP91.

Read full story here:

That is not the full story. Segwit2x is not even mentioned.

There is no way to be totally sure about what will happen. Miners may lie too.

That's true, and that's my interpretation of the current market movements - uncertainty.

[Rutdam]

segWIT2x mining support is more than 85% https://coin.dance/blocks#proposals
BTC core nodes are nearly 80% https://coin.dance/nodes
if this goes like this we ll going to see a HARD FORK at 1 August.


I think HF is likely 80% will happen.
15 days left
If you think different plz reply.

I think hard fork will not happen on 1 August as it is when SegWit is activated. Hard fork will happen in November.

[teramit]

Bcc website says HF is going to happen
https://www.bitcoincash.org/