BIP91 Lock-in Does Not Guarantee a Swift SegWit Activation on the Bitcoin Networ

[jerjer]

Where Do We Go From Here After Locking in BIP91?

Locking in BIP91 was an enormous feat. It required over 80% of the total hashpower to signal intent for this solution, and one can safely say the mining pools and community came together for the greater good. At the same time, this was only a small victory in a lengthy war and things are not set in stone. 

With the lock-in secured, the Bitcoin network is now in a grace period. There will be a period of time until non-SegWit blocks are rejected by the network. This is a big change, even though the majority of the network is seeming to signal SegWit blocks. SegWit2x and USF signals are both considered “valid,” whereas pools or miners signaling Bitcoin Unlimited, for example, will see their blocks rejected. This rejection period will go into effect very soon.

Despite all of this positive momentum, there is no guarantee for a successful SegWit activation. It could be activated instead as BIP141. While BIP91 signals intent to support BIP141’s SegWit, it is merely based on hashpower. If mining pools and miners were to pull out suddenly, there would be nothing anyone could do to prevent it. Considering how very few economic nodes support BIP91 right now, it seems unlikely we will see a “pure” activation of Segregated Witness.

If the majority of miners changed their mind, they would risk being forked off the main Bitcoin blockchain. That would result in the chain split people are so desperately trying to avoid. BIP91 was introduced to make SegWit2x and the UASF compatible to avoid a chain split. However, it could end up being the catalyst for an actual network split, which is still a possible outcome at this stage.

For the time being, there is no evidence to suggest that miners would suddenly turn their backs on BIP91. However, just because this small milestone has been reached does not mean everything will be smooth sailing. The miners will follow the largest chain, regardless of whether or not it supports “pure” Segregated Witness. It also means the minority supporting the BIP91 soft fork can be ignored by the rest of the network in a few weeks from now.

This “public intent to signal for something” is nothing more than an empty promise by miners and mining pools. Now is the time for these individuals to put their money where their mouth is and make Bitcoin scale properly, regardless of political shenanigans.  Assuming things remain as they are now, we will see the first steps toward activating SegWit in about a week’s time.

https://themerkle.com/bip91-lock-in-does-not-guarantee-a-swift-segwit-activation-on-the-bitcoin-network/amp/

[crazyivan]

For the fuck sake, stop with FUD and panic.

Do you see any proof of SegWit not being activated? NO!

So why do you spread this shit? If you want to up your word count, choose something which ll add to your reputation and not become a forum post collecting troll!

[DooMAD]

For the fuck sake, stop with FUD and panic.

Do you see any proof of SegWit not being activated? NO!

So why do you spread this shit? If you want to up your word count, choose something which ll add to your reputation and not become a forum post collecting troll!

In fairness, there's nothing technically inaccurate in what has been said, and it's up to you where you place emphasis on what's been written.  It's entirely possible to interpret the article in a way that doesn't sound alarmist or fearful.

But yes, it is a bit of a stretch to think, after making the effort to come together and agree this far, that a significant proportion of miners will suddenly change their mind and break rank.  I don't know why the article raises such an unlikely scenario.  But the one thing the article is quite correct in, is its assessment of non-mining economic nodes.  They simply aren't running the same BIP91 code for the most part, although this isn't necessarily a problem.  It's important to stress that just because the miners have agreed something, it doesn't mean everyone is on board.  Non-mining nodes matter too (although many will argue that, heh).  

But most important of all, none of this means that we're not 99.9% likely to have SegWit activated in the near future.  It's basically a done deal.

[jerjer]

For the fuck sake, stop with FUD and panic.

Do you see any proof of SegWit not being activated? NO!

So why do you spread this shit? If you want to up your word count, choose something which ll add to your reputation and not become a forum post collecting troll!

Its just a reminder dude, its better  to get ready for any posible happened. Don't get angry lol

[Meuh6879]

Update : https://www.xbt.eu/ (144 Blocks)

[Ctn]

This situation is like real life of middle man. The whales knows what they are doing because they are changing the stuff by themselves. While the people who doesn't care about the bitcoin situation are the one who "really don't care, or don't understand what's going on". The rest who stands in the middle are now in ambiguity where to go and what to trust.


The hard fork will happen? Yes sure, because rumours say so and here are they not liking the idea and selling out the wealth to whales.

[talkbitcoin]

This situation is like real life of middle man. The whales knows what they are doing because they are changing the stuff by themselves. While the people who doesn't care about the bitcoin situation are the one who "really don't care, or don't understand what's going on". The rest who stands in the middle are now in ambiguity where to go and what to trust.

this comment is about 10 days late.
this is what started on 13th and speed up on 14th with the FUD growing and resulting the bottom on 16th. a 3 day manipulation job by whales if you will

The hard fork will happen? Yes sure, because rumours say so and here are they not liking the idea and selling out the wealth to whales.

what rumors?
there is only reality, the reality that we are seeing by the real blocks that are being mined and with the real signaling of support they include.
this real number is above 95% threshold for BIP141 and nearly is 100% because only a couple of tiny miners with less than 2% hashrate are not signaling.

and all of this is leading to a soft fork with the highest support possible to activate SegWit.
the rest is drama.

[cellard]

The chances of the miners doing something like fake signaling and then pulling off or not accept segwit blocks or whatever are so small that it's just negligible. I recommend that you look at this article with Jimmy Song where he considers all the possible "insane" BIP91/UASF scenarios:

https://medium.com/@jimmysong/pathological-bip91-uasf-scenarios-102e2707991c

No one of them will happen to be honest, the chances are too small.

[pizamoi]

This situation is like real life of middle man. The whales knows what they are doing because they are changing the stuff by themselves. While the people who doesn't care about the bitcoin situation are the one who "really don't care, or don't understand what's going on". The rest who stands in the middle are now in ambiguity where to go and what to trust.

this comment is about 10 days late.
this is what started on 13th and speed up on 14th with the FUD growing and resulting the bottom on 16th. a 3 day manipulation job by whales if you will

The hard fork will happen? Yes sure, because rumours say so and here are they not liking the idea and selling out the wealth to whales.

what rumors?
there is only reality, the reality that we are seeing by the real blocks that are being mined and with the real signaling of support they include.
this real number is above 95% threshold for BIP141 and nearly is 100% because only a couple of tiny miners with less than 2% hashrate are not signaling.

and all of this is leading to a soft fork with the highest support possible to activate SegWit.
the rest is drama.

Drama seems to be all there is, even when a compromise solution is found people cry foul and complain for whatever reason. Can't we for once applaud miners for finally coming together instead of thinking there is something deeper going on.

Right now miners have the same incentive as us, for the price of bitcoin to increase.

[Meuh6879]

Update : https://www.xbt.eu/ (144 Blocks)