Double Trouble with a Shuffle (early or late, doesn't matter)

[lemonginger]

lots of people getting their feet wet with a few pennies. Need some players willing to throw down some change.

[lemonginger]

We're at the halfway mark. The point where Double Trouble games go to to die. But you still have just as much chance to be the first doubler as you did 12 hours ago!

No spreadsheet updates will take place overnight.

[FreeMoney]

Okay, I'm not going to play this one since there is an unknown and potentially large fee. The strategy seems interesting enough that I would do it with a fixed % fee and partial payment for the last winner. Right now a large bet is just bleeding value since it's all or nothing on whether there is enough to double it. In the extreme if someone bets more than the whole pot they have 0% chance where someone who bets tiny has about a 50% chance. Discouraging big bets makes the whole thing less fun.

[lemonginger]

not sure how this is any different than the vast majority of double trouble games where big bets get orphaned quite a bit (I know, I've lost quite a few more than I've doubled) and no one offers refunds, but sure, next round I will do a weighted return. Just don't think it promises risk free returns. I've had games where I have had multiple 2-4 BTC bets orphaned and received bitcents back when there is a line of 20 some people that haven't been paid and only 1btc left in the pot. The nature of any pyramid....

But if people want some money back, they can have some money back!

Next round will be no fees, 90% of final pot goes back to people with orphaned bets, weighted by the amount they put in. 10% of final pot goes to house.

[Kax0]

Wait, this round is still open right? i just sent some...

[lemonginger]

yes open until 17:00 GMT tomorrow (or 10 AM US West Coast Time)

[lemonginger]

A few hours left until the shuffle.....

Your bet could still wind up at the front of the line.

Can you push the total pot over 10 BTC?

[Randall Flagg]

I'll wait for next round to see how this one will end

[Auspician]

OP, I'd personally suggest the following if you want to encourage higher bets:

Usually the game stops once no more doubling is possible.  Instead, perhaps the person whose bid cannot be doubled gets half the pot as a consolation prize, and the host takes the other half? 

We gotta pay you for your time and the host getting 10% of the remaining pot seems a bit trivial when you consider the time and effort you're putting in.

[lemonginger]

Sure, but as with any doubling game, it is likely that there may be many people whose bets can't be doubled and not a lot of the pot to go around. The refund works in a very tiny game,  but in a large game where the unpaid base of the pyramid can be ten-twenty bets, you generally get very little back. As mentioned, I have had numerous games where I have had 4 and 5 BTC bets refund a few bitcents

[lemonginger]

half an hour to go, but it doesn't matter what order you have entered. All bets treated equally, all shuffled and re-ordered!

[lemonginger]

This game is now closed. Shuffle and payouts to occur shortly. Then new game will begin!

[Auspician]

Sure, but as with any doubling game, it is likely that there may be many people whose bets can't be doubled and not a lot of the pot to go around. The refund works in a very tiny game,  but in a large game where the unpaid base of the pyramid can be ten-twenty bets, you generally get very little back. As mentioned, I have had numerous games where I have had 4 and 5 BTC bets refund a few bitcents

Just to be clear, I don't mean divide half the remaining pot between *everyone* whose bet didn't get doubled.  I simply mean give half of the pot to the *individual* who was next on the list to have their bet doubled when there wasn't enough in the pot to make this happen. 

Person A: Doubled
Person B: Doubled
Person C: Doubled
Person D: Doubled
Person E: Consolation Prize
Person F: Loses
Person G: Loses
Person H: Loses
Person I: Loses

[lemonginger]

The spreadsheet has been updated. Winners will be paid out shortly. (Winners please confirm here if you want so people know it's honest.) All in all a good shuffle. Host made very little (.1 btc), one of the bigger betters got doubled (barely!) etc. But a good example of why refunding makes little difference in some games (the refund would have been infinitesimal)

Here is link to random.org screenshot:

http://cl.ly/2w1h0r3f1A3h0Z1T433C

[tito13kfm]

1BSqNqKTBfXi1STAXPBDoAhQEncpYjGvZf

Whoo hoo!  That's me!  Payment received!

[Auspician]

Payment for winnings has been promptly received and confirmed.  Thanks OP for a fun game, I'll definitely play again!

[Carnth]

one of the bigger betters got doubled (barely!)

That was me! And it was a close one.
This was the most fun I had playing a double game. Especially watching the spreadsheet update with the pot dwindling after every payout.
The fact that everyone has a shot at winning (instead of people who get in first) is great.

[vborets]

It  is not clear how much times you randomized :-)

[tito13kfm]

It  is not clear how much times you randomized :-)

Best case scenario for him would have him ending the round before doubling up the big bets.  That way he can pocket the difference.  Random is random.  If I tell you to roll a die once or 40 times, it doesn't matter.  The number you return from any individual instance is still random.