Poll: What do you think will happen with bitcoin in August after the fork

[Kwelstr]

Some people that are not living under a rock know that bitcoin is going to hard fork come August first. After two weeks, when the dust settles we should have more clarity on the results of this split of the blockchain. I want to poll all BitcoinTalk members to see their perspective on this fork. Do you see gloom and doom or do you see opportunity and exciting times coming.

Please vote so we can have a sample of the community.

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[Mad7Scientist]

Anyone can make their own fork and claim that that their little fork will be a huge event. This is silly. I think Bitcoin cash is very small.

[bitserve]

Just a correction: Bitcoin is NOT going to fork 1 Aug. Maybe someone is going to create their own fork (BCC or whatever) which is something that can happen any day. I could just make a "fork" right now, you too.

[shimbark123]

Is the fork will happen in August 1? I don't think so. I think the thing that will happen in august 1 is the split of bitcoin. And some bitcoin will not get accepted in some instances. Well sometimes when I think of it I think it as a FUD. For some people to rejoice in buying.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, why do you not want to call them for what they really are? BTC and the altcoin BCC? There is no need to hide the truth from the people in the forum that BCC is an altcoin.

[Kwelstr]

OP, why do you not want to call them for what they really are? BTC and the altcoin BCC? There is no need to hide the truth from the people in the forum that BCC is an altcoin.

Because I wanted to be fair and impartial, both blockchains will be different from the one we have now, they both implement changes, the core supports SegWit2x and a small group of rebels support bitcoin cash. So on August 1st we will have a fork with 2 different versions of bitcoin, not a bitcoin and an altcoin, regardless of who gets to keep the BTC symbol.

[iamTom123]

Reading the many responses on this topic is making me more confused. I am just an ordinary guy holding a little amount of Bitcoin and I am essentially on the dark as to what can happen this coming August 1. Will there really be a fork or a split in Bitcoin or is this fork just a negligible decision of a group of miners which will eventually not affect the whole Bitcoin?

I have been reading about Bitcoin Cash too and I understand that it can be a new altcoin bearing the name Bitcoin but this will not have any major effect on the real Bitcoin. Now, if I have some Bitcoin left in a well-known exchange will it mean that my coin is automatically lost or it depends on how that exchange will protect their members' funds?

Things are really mired in the mud right now as we are all just expressing my ideas and opinions here and it seems that nobody can speak with certainty on what can be. Must be another manifestation on Bitcoin's decentralized set-up.

[karanggatak]

in my opinion, for a while bitcoin will down like the first start, altcoin will be the real alternative coin and replace bitcoin for a while until bitcoin get the balance. and maybe need several  month to be normal again

[Mad7Scientist]

Reading the many responses on this topic is making me more confused

That's probably the intention. Trying to promote this BCC altcoin by pretending that it is the alternative to the SegWit2x hard fork that is to come around October. Really the classic Bitcoin will just be Bitcoin, or the people who don't update their clients to BTC1 or whatever they'll call it. The real fork and panic is the October SegWit2x hard fork not this little altcoin attempt.

[vrathamon]

That's the issue people have with Segwit.  Once you go Segwit, you can't go back because all transactions done under Segwit (and all blocks/forks after Segwit) will become invalid without the centralized Segwit nodes validating the transaction.  This will forever give the validating Segwit nodes power over Bitcoin's destiny.  And it'll only take less than 6 years for a wallet developer (ie: Bitcoin Core) to centralize and completely usurp Satoshi's vision.

Reading the many responses on this topic is making me more confused. I am just an ordinary guy holding a little amount of Bitcoin and I am essentially on the dark as to what can happen this coming August 1. Will there really be a fork or a split in Bitcoin or is this fork just a negligible decision of a group of miners which will eventually not affect the whole Bitcoin?

I have been reading about Bitcoin Cash too and I understand that it can be a new altcoin bearing the name Bitcoin but this will not have any major effect on the real Bitcoin. Now, if I have some Bitcoin left in a well-known exchange will it mean that my coin is automatically lost or it depends on how that exchange will protect their members' funds?

Things are really mired in the mud right now as we are all just expressing my ideas and opinions here and it seems that nobody can speak with certainty on what can be. Must be another manifestation on Bitcoin's decentralized set-up.

[pooya87]

here is what is happening and what will happen:
1. bitcoin will have a soft fork which will activate SegWit soon.

2. August 1 BCC will probably not reach enough hashrate to produce 1 block per hour, they change the difficulty manually to fix that and will get 51% attacked from the rest because of the low difficulty and low hashrate. exchanges (since they are losing money because of double spends) de-list this altcoin.

3. like all airdrops the price of the altcoin (BCC) will drop 1-2 days before the release and the second it is released there will be a big dump. others seeing this will panic and start asking "how do i dump it" this board will be filled with topics. they learn and dump it. price of BCC crashes hard. specially because most exchanges have de-listed them and only smaller ones have it with ultra thin orderbooks that can be dumped into and crashed with small amounts.

4. there will no longer be enough economical incentive for any miner to waste their electricity and equipment on this chain and they will give it up.

5. it disappears leaving behind a bad memory in our minds and takes away the trust a handful of people have of these people promoting BCC

[StevenRA]

Any reasons not to look at the Ether fork as a good prior example?

[krishnapramod]

Some people that are not living under a rock know that bitcoin is going to hard fork come August first. After two weeks, when the dust settles we should have more clarity on the results of this split of the blockchain. I want to poll all BitcoinTalk members to see their perspective on this fork. Do you see gloom and doom or do you see opportunity and exciting times coming.

Please vote so we can have a sample of the community.

Wasn't there enough confusion that you have to rename two coins. It is bitcoin and bitcoin cash.

1. On August 1, the whole bitcoin protocol isn't getting hard forked. ViaBTC would be implementing their own version of this open source protocol (BCC) which isn't going to make any changes to the main network. Only a small percentage of miners would be mining the BCC chain so IMO the question of gloom and doom is insignificant.

2. There is replay and wipeout protection so there would be no double spends and as far as wipeout is concerned, BCC is a permanent fork so it is unlikely.

3. Majority of miners are committed to activate Segwit so obviously BCC would have a very small amount of hashrate to support the chain. Keeping this scenario in mind, ABC developers have added a slow mining difficulty reduction algorithm.

4. Exchanges. I don't think major exchanges would support BCC. Coinbase has already made it clear.

After all the dust settles down, IMO there could be two possible scenarios either BCC will bite the dust or it will exist as an altcoin with much lower value than bitcoin.

[ikeo]

I think BCC will run until November as a contingency to see if core will actually implement 2x. If core does not, then BCC will be 2x. If core does, then BCC goes away. It's quit simple its really up to core to decide if they will honor 2x or not. BCC is just there as a backup because with SegWit being an irreversible change, any engineer/dev/ops team would like to have a contingency regardless of factions, its a saftey measure..

[vrathamon]

Ya. Blockstream/Bitcoin Core devs have been known to not keep their word.

I think BCC will run until November as a contingency to see if core will actually implement 2x. If core does not, then BCC will be 2x. If core does, then BCC goes away. It's quit simple its really up to core to decide if they will honor 2x or not. BCC is just there as a backup because with SegWit being an irreversible change, any engineer/dev/ops team would like to have a contingency regardless of factions, its a saftey measure..

[European Central Bank]

what does btl stand for?

there'll be a few crazies who mine bitcoin cash but the big guns are more interested in money than anything else despite their endless attempted to grab power. money will win so they'll follow the segwit chain.

[Kwelstr]

Some people that are not living under a rock know that bitcoin is going to hard fork come August first. After two weeks, when the dust settles we should have more clarity on the results of this split of the blockchain. I want to poll all BitcoinTalk members to see their perspective on this fork. Do you see gloom and doom or do you see opportunity and exciting times coming.

Please vote so we can have a sample of the community.

Wasn't there enough confusion that you have to rename two coins. It is bitcoin and bitcoin cash.

1. On August 1, the whole bitcoin protocol isn't getting hard forked. ViaBTC would be implementing their own version of this open source protocol (BCC) which isn't going to make any changes to the main network. Only a small percentage of miners would be mining the BCC chain so IMO the question of gloom and doom is insignificant.

2. There is replay and wipeout protection so there would be no double spends and as far as wipeout is concerned, BCC is a permanent fork so it is unlikely.

3. Majority of miners are committed to activate Segwit so obviously BCC would have a very small amount of hashrate to support the chain. Keeping this scenario in mind, ABC developers have added a slow mining difficulty reduction algorithm.

4. Exchanges. I don't think major exchanges would support BCC. Coinbase has already made it clear.

After all the dust settles down, IMO there could be two possible scenarios either BCC will bite the dust or it will exist as an altcoin with much lower value than bitcoin.

I renamed the 2 coins so not to play favorites and I didn't use BCC for bitcoin cash because that ticker is already taken by bitcoin connect.

[junan1]

Option 2 for me, but being a "Newbie", I'm not able to vote.

Because I wanted to be fair and impartial, both blockchains will be different from the one we have now, they both implement changes, the core supports SegWit2x and a small group of rebels support bitcoin cash.

A rare virtue in this debate.  +1

More accurately, I'd say that the two sides are "SegWit" and "Bitcoin Cash".  The "2x" part of the SegWit2x agreement is highly controversial among those on the SegWit side.  The Bitcoin Core developers, for example are almost universally opposed to SegWit2x.  

Finally, might I suggest you also run this poll in Chinese on the Chinese subforum here?  I've noticed they're paying more attention to this fork and that the threads are less one-sided.  It would be interesting to compare the two.

[bitserve]

From the moment 100% of the miners agree on Segwit for Bitcoin, anything not having Segwit is NOT Bitcoin.

[Boys27]

For now I am still confused and do not understand what will happen to bitcoin after August 1, a few days ago I sold bitcoin, and I prefer ETH, is my decision right?