Some theories about bitcoin price because of BCC airdrop

[talkbitcoin]

as you may know bitcoin cash hard fork on August 1 is a possibility to happen and a couple of exchanges said they may add it.
from what i have been hearing, people will treat it mostly like any other airdrop altcoin and will start selling.

in this topic i want to explore the scenarios that may happen because of it.

1. people sell BCC to fiat and use that fiat to buy bitcoin or at least use some part of that fiat to buy bitcoin and bitcoin price rises. which is already rising and this can be in anticipation of that.

2. this scenario only works under one condition: there should be NO BCC/USD market and only BCC/BTC market. in which case people may sell their BCC for BTC then sell that BTC or part of it for fiat and that may cause some dips in bitcoin price.

3. it doesn't matter at all. bitcoin price is already rising, nobody is taking BCC seriously and bitcoin price will continue rising because it had all its FUD and downtime already and SegWit is coming...

i say #1 is the most probably scenario. tell me what you think?

[chaser15]

3. it doesn't matter at all. bitcoin price is already rising, nobody is taking BCC seriously and bitcoin price will continue rising because it had all its FUD and downtime already and SegWit is coming...

This is my stand and actually at our discussion in our social media group, we are seeing BCC is no different to XT, Classic and BTU which will eventually be forgetten. Bitcoin price will continue to rise Im sure of that. If majority knows that BCC will win the game then now we must see that price will goes down but it was still going up even at slow phase.

Well to put exclamation at all speculations, we just have to wait for what will be result of this saga.

[nizamcc]

BCC is just one more shitcoin being added to the list of alts as Bitcoin seems to be gaining strength due to the negative effects of these days too, and the reason I said that can be seen by yourself when you will check out ViaBTC where it's been actively traded atm. Though, theory #3 is the one that will become the actual outcome in my view because I already got a notice from a few exchanges that BCC and BTC both will not be accessible but only one of them which the exchange itself supports, so everyone should stop dreaming that they would be able to make any money out of this.

[hatshepsut93]

I'll correct option 2 - even if BCC/FIAT market will exist (it already does on ViaBTC), the volumes are going to influence this scenario, and ALT/FIAT markets usually have very low volumes, comparing to ALT/BTC.
So, what most likely to happen is redistribution of BTC from people who decided to invest in BCC to people who decide to dump their airdrop. And since the average price will be quite low (something like 0.01 BTC), the effect of shorting additional BTC (keep in mind that many people can also decide to hodl) will be unnoticeable.
The biggest role of BCC is creating FUD, because when the market is sensitive, it's easier for whales to pump and dump.

[DaMut]

as you may know bitcoin cash hard fork on August 1 is a possibility to happen and a couple of exchanges said they may add it.
from what i have been hearing, people will treat it mostly like any other airdrop altcoin and will start selling.

in this topic i want to explore the scenarios that may happen because of it.

1. people sell BCC to fiat and use that fiat to buy bitcoin or at least use some part of that fiat to buy bitcoin and bitcoin price rises. which is already rising and this can be in anticipation of that.

2. this scenario only works under one condition: there should be NO BCC/USD market and only BCC/BTC market. in which case people may sell their BCC for BTC then sell that BTC or part of it for fiat and that may cause some dips in bitcoin price.

3. it doesn't matter at all. bitcoin price is already rising, nobody is taking BCC seriously and bitcoin price will continue rising because it had all its FUD and downtime already and SegWit is coming...

i say #1 is the most probably scenario. tell me what you think?

actually,what is the different between scenario 1 to 3 ? scenario 1 to 3 are same,that mean you're only looking it in one way.
for your point,all that i can see is everybody will sell their BCC/BCH immediately right ? how about this scenario :
Scene 1.Bitcoin price slowly rising because everybody buying Bitcoin to get free coin from splitting,they take it as an opportunity to get profit
                     just holding Bitcoin for a few days and then dump it ( This is your scenario from point 1 to 3 ).
Scene 2.Everyboy buying Bitcoin before splitting to get an airdrop,after chain split success they will sell their BTC to get more BCC,because
                     they know.Somepeople more likely will shill it and trying to pump it like they did to Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Unlimited ( Many people
                     believe it because a miner company aka 'Bitmain' supporting BCC/BCH that's why many people speculate it will huge in the future )
Scene 3.They're holding both of them,because they believe Bitcoin will not die and unreplaceable and even if BCC doesn't pumping and lost it
                     value nothing to lose because it's given for free to us

How about it ?

[kwukduck]

Call it shitcoin all you want.
It properly solves scaling problems without the addition of bankster incentivised code.
People will realise soon enough BCC will never be this cheap again and sell their BTC for BCC.

[talkbitcoin]

I'll correct option 2 - even if BCC/FIAT market will exist (it already does on ViaBTC), the volumes are going to influence this scenario, and ALTC/FIAT markets usually have very low volumes, comparing to ALT/BTC.

by market i meant a decent exchange not ViaBTC which is an unknown one that sprout out of nowhere recently and is highly untrusted.

and also i believe it is not about the volume, it is about what people want. for example if they want fiat and there is no BCC/fiat market they have to sell to BTC then sell BTC for fiat.

How about it ?

they are good, thanks for sharing.
what i meant was in #1 the price of bitcoin will noticeably be affected by BCC in an upward movement, possibly a sharp rise in the first day.
in #3 the rise continues as before, a slower rise and the same pattern that normally happens.

Call it shitcoin all you want.
It properly solves scaling problems without the addition of bankster incentivised code.
People will realise soon enough BCC will never be this cheap again and sell their BTC for BCC.

i am almost certain that BCC will not only not-solve scaling issue but the problems that it will have in the following months are countless.
starting with time between block, orphan rate, lost money, double spends and followed by ABC nodes shutting down and centralizing everything to a handful of people aka banksters take over.

[BitHodler]

Call it shitcoin all you want.
It properly solves scaling problems without the addition of bankster incentivised code.
People will realise soon enough BCC will never be this cheap again and sell their BTC for BCC.

I am quite certain that when people will have their free altcoins available to dump, they won't hesitate with selling them at the latest market price ~ who says no to free BTC?

BCC is just something that will be initiated out of pure greed. Depending on the market rate, this BCC trash will gain certain large holders millions in profits instantly ~ it's a well thought out plan.

I will be amongst the people that will dump at the very beginning. I am not at all interested in holding something that shouldn't be initiated due to the potential negative market aspects connected to it.

[Wind_FURY]

It is really hard to say what exactly would happen. My theory is the value of Bitcoin now which is around $2600 will become the total value of BTC + BCC after the fork. Meaning BCC will steal some value from BTC in the beginning but will later diverge.

[Etemind]

It is really hard to say what exactly would happen. My theory is the value of Bitcoin now which is around $2600 will become the total value of BTC + BCC after the fork. Meaning BCC will steal some value from BTC in the beginning but will later diverge.

I agree with that. Maybe the total value will drop initially. If there is firming support for one of them, the price will rise a lot.

[iqlimasyadiqa]

as you may know bitcoin cash hard fork on August 1 is a possibility to happen and a couple of exchanges said they may add it.
from what i have been hearing, people will treat it mostly like any other airdrop altcoin and will start selling.

in this topic i want to explore the scenarios that may happen because of it.

1. people sell BCC to fiat and use that fiat to buy bitcoin or at least use some part of that fiat to buy bitcoin and bitcoin price rises. which is already rising and this can be in anticipation of that.

2. this scenario only works under one condition: there should be NO BCC/USD market and only BCC/BTC market. in which case people may sell their BCC for BTC then sell that BTC or part of it for fiat and that may cause some dips in bitcoin price.

3. it doesn't matter at all. bitcoin price is already rising, nobody is taking BCC seriously and bitcoin price will continue rising because it had all its FUD and downtime already and SegWit is coming...

i say #1 is the most probably scenario. tell me what you think?

I prefer against the third point. Because bitcoin is now very popular, so the impact of hardfork will be felt for a while and bitcoin prices will be stable again. the popularity of bitcoin make people choose bitcoin than BCC. This will re-corroborate that bitcoin is the largest digital currency today and will be very difficult to replace bitcoin position.

[DaMut]

How about it ?

they are good, thanks for sharing.
what i meant was in #1 the price of bitcoin will noticeably be affected by BCC in an upward movement, possibly a sharp rise in the first day.
in #3 the rise continues as before, a slower rise and the same pattern that normally happens.

Oh well,
From my view the appearance will affecting further upward movement for Bitcoin but it's not really significant,
#1.possibly a sharp rise in the first day because the appearance of BCC ? you mean on 1 August ? that won't happen in my opinion because,likely a possible movement in Bitcoin market was a downward movement.Reason : BCC created based on Bitcoin chain so how much we will get based on our balance in our wallet,many people take this time as their opportunity to maximize their profit.that mean somepeople likely will pump it before get out of it.
#3.Upward movement will continiou,but we will see another downward first before upward movement.it's a cycle of the economy,(normally happens ? you mean like before,without a huge dump like 2014ish ? yeah more likely )

[talkbitcoin]

#1.possibly a sharp rise in the first day because the appearance of BCC ? you mean on 1 August ? that won't happen in my opinion because,likely a possible movement in Bitcoin market was a downward movement.Reason : BCC created based on Bitcoin chain so how much we will get based on our balance in our wallet,many people take this time as their opportunity to maximize their profit.that mean somepeople likely will pump it before get out of it.

right now price is about $300 per BCC and if you have 10 bitcoin you can nearly get 1 bitcoins worth out of this.
and about the pump i have to say there will surely be a pump but it would be impossible to do so in the first couple of weeks because all that time people will be dumping, it takes time for some people to do it, or to find the best way of doing it. and when the dumping slows down depending on the price of that time (the bottom) no amount of pump may work on it.

so far BCC has come down about $600 from its ATH when ViaBTC started the market and that is a -66% drop pre-launch!!

#3.Upward movement will continiou,but we will see another downward first before upward movement.it's a cycle of the economy,(normally happens ? you mean like before,without a huge dump like 2014ish ? yeah more likely )

i don't think there will be any sharp drops. the drop was tested twice in the past month. first one was big down to $1850ish and the second one was only down to $2400ish.
i see only rise specially after this:
http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-goldman-sachs-2017-7

[Netnox]

It is going to have some effect and my guess that the BTC exchange rates are going to drop (at least temporarily).

Here is my guess:

1. At least half of all the BCC tokens will be dumped within the initial 30 days
2. The BCC supporters will dump their Bitcoins, and purchase these BCC tokens
3. #2 Will result in a surplus BTC holding for many of the users, who are going to sell at least part of these BTC to fiat.
4. #3 Will cause an over-supply of BTC in the market, dragging down the prices.

[YuginKadoya]

I think it's going to be a mix between theory 1 and theory 3. But yes it's pretty tempting to dump it right away to get BTCs...

It will be surely a mix between selling it and doesn't give a thing about BCC at all and I think it is on the users decision if what they wants to do with it, and more importantly the price of bitcoin is rising and we can see that it is a good thing for bitcoin activating the segwit event, but what shall users would certainly do with Bitcoin cash and yes I myself would surely be tempted just like you.

[Bitmore]

Call it shitcoin all you want.
It properly solves scaling problems without the addition of bankster incentivised code.
People will realise soon enough BCC will never be this cheap again and sell their BTC for BCC.

I don't think I would sell anything, but I am open to buying cheap BCC as is available...

[webtricks]

Nice topic, well all three theories show that BCC has very dull future ahead and I believe it could harly survive airdrop and rise again in any near future.
Now coming to theories. I would go with third one. Bitcoin Cash isn't capable enough to create any impact via first or second theory and will be one of other insignificant altcoins. I am conducting somewhat similar poll on Twitter and results clearly reflect that community is surely waving to third theory -
https://twitter.com/Bitcoin_Bullet/status/890985561644650500

[AK47-]

as you may know bitcoin cash hard fork on August 1 is a possibility to happen and a couple of exchanges said they may add it.
from what i have been hearing, people will treat it mostly like any other airdrop altcoin and will start selling.

in this topic i want to explore the scenarios that may happen because of it.

1. people sell BCC to fiat and use that fiat to buy bitcoin or at least use some part of that fiat to buy bitcoin and bitcoin price rises. which is already rising and this can be in anticipation of that.

2. this scenario only works under one condition: there should be NO BCC/USD market and only BCC/BTC market. in which case people may sell their BCC for BTC then sell that BTC or part of it for fiat and that may cause some dips in bitcoin price.

3. it doesn't matter at all. bitcoin price is already rising, nobody is taking BCC seriously and bitcoin price will continue rising because it had all its FUD and downtime already and SegWit is coming...

i say #1 is the most probably scenario. tell me what you think?

There is no doubt that theory 3 is going to take place. Example can be seen right in this thread. How community is reacting over BCC and ultimately we are the one who will be given BCC equivalent to BTC we hold. Bitcoin holders aren't really welcoming to BCC fork. Most probably it would be dumped in matter of hours. Regarding Bitcoin, it will grow as before and wouldn't be much affected by BCC.

[mobnepal]

Even though many exchange platform have rejected support for BCC right now but they might add it at some point just like they have added ETC after ETH hardfork after few months.

So I think there will be BCC-USD market in some of the platforms from day 1 and people might either cash those free money out or invest more in bitcoin/other altcoins. I am actually expecting pump on both bitcoin and ethereum price.

[iram1011]

as you may know bitcoin cash hard fork on August 1 is a possibility to happen and a couple of exchanges said they may add it.
from what i have been hearing, people will treat it mostly like any other airdrop altcoin and will start selling.

in this topic i want to explore the scenarios that may happen because of it.

1. people sell BCC to fiat and use that fiat to buy bitcoin or at least use some part of that fiat to buy bitcoin and bitcoin price rises. which is already rising and this can be in anticipation of that.

2. this scenario only works under one condition: there should be NO BCC/USD market and only BCC/BTC market. in which case people may sell their BCC for BTC then sell that BTC or part of it for fiat and that may cause some dips in bitcoin price.

3. it doesn't matter at all. bitcoin price is already rising, nobody is taking BCC seriously and bitcoin price will continue rising because it had all its FUD and downtime already and SegWit is coming...

i say #1 is the most probably scenario. tell me what you think?

There would be a mix of all the scenarios. There would be a trade of BCC/USD as well as BCC/BTC. Most of the people would be buying more Bitcoins of BCC. Also, BCC on the whole isn't going to affect Bitcoin much. It just another Altcoin which doesn't seem to have much potential. On the whole we will see a surge in Bitcoin price most probably after fork.