Why BTC will never be over 30K

[MiBambino]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

Your logic is weird. People who invest early in successful companies/assets always end up with a shit lot of money later on. Early adopters are taking a tremendous amount of risk and they get rewarded for it justifiably. Think of the guys who invested in Microsoft or Apple very early on and held on to their shares for a decade. Those guys are rich beyond their dreams. Warren Buffet is one of the richest person in the world because he invested in all the right places at a very early age.

Why do you it think is any different for Bitcoin? Early adopters will get filthy rich (they already are). There will be a new class of millionaires and billionaires. Wasn't this case during the dotcom bubble too? Lots of people got crazy rich during that time. Same thing will happen with cryptocurrencies. People adopting now will get rich. For people adopting 10 years later, it will be just another asset giving 5-10% ROI a year. It's all about risk vs reward premium.

Unlike companies, cryptocurrencies have no national border. So while calculating marketcap we can't just compare it to Amazon or any other company. Cypto's reach is global and possibility of much large marketcaps.

Having said all this, there is no guarantee Bitcoin will be the dominant coin of the future. Most altcoins are technologically far superior to Bitcoin. It's questionable how long the network effect will keep Bitcoin at No.1. With the impending hard fork on August 1, the flippening might finally happen.

I wouldn't call my logic weird, per se. I just get fed up with a lot of people who think bitcoin will reach the stars because 'they want it bad enough and their heart is pure'. You must understand that in order for a bitcoin to be worth 30K, someone has to buy this coin believing it will go higher. True, there might be a lot of crypto millionaires and billionaires, but as soon as they try to cash out, the markets will drop again. That's the (only) problem with cryptos; the price will not be fixed, meaning that when someone takes out his fiat money, bitcoins price will drop. When one thousand holders all cash out 30K, the price will drop further.

Also, you can't compare an extremely young asset class to one of the most dominant and globally accepted assets in the world. Gold has been a standard for wealth and security for thousands of years. I agree bitcoin can definitely take golds place in a few decades, but you have to realise most people today are highly sceptical and conservative.

Last, the flippening will never happen. People are realising slowly but steadily that there's no company on earth interested in using ethereums token, they're only interested in the tech and possibly the chain. Plus, there are a lot of materials and metals better than gold, more valuable, more rare, more pure, yet gold remains the ultimate standard. Bitcoin will forever remain the first crypto, the one above all. Most future investors will be looking for a safe investment that gives a better ROI than the bank. They won't go looking for coins they don't understand if bitcoin is right in front of them. Also, august 1st will be a non event, the upcoming fork is planned for november. If anything, august 1st will have a very small dip, nothing more.

You're assumption is that 10, 20, 30 yrs from now, everything will still be valued in fiat. However, everything could very well be valued in crypto in the coming future and thus these crypto millionaires and billionaires wouldn't need to "cash out". My point is, you're making a lot of assumptions to come to a conclusion that BTC can't break a $30,000 threshold. If there is one thing we DO know it's that honey badger don't give a fuck about what you think it can or can't do.

Hadn't thought of that. To follow up on that point, I believe in 20-40 years oil will be virtually gone, so the dollar won't be tied to oil anymore. It can go back to gold, it can go back to something new, like cryptos, or crypto (or another currency) will take dollars place. Like someone else said, everything is becoming more and more digital. It's only logical currency will become digital as well. Maybe BTC could become the eventual standard, a global currency. Btw my post wasn't intended to make a point, I just wanted to stimulate healthy debate about the future possibilities

[1714892517]

1714892517

[ilovefeetsmell]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

Bitcoin will reach 5000$. It's a step by step process and it will not climb up for the highest price. It will fluctuate from lower to higher than higher to lower. The situation is always like that. So nice to know and to hear bitcoin will go through in 500k in just 3 years. It's a short period of time so big advantages on holding bitcoin for 3 years.

[RoyBatty]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

Your logic is weird. People who invest early in successful companies/assets always end up with a shit lot of money later on. Early adopters are taking a tremendous amount of risk and they get rewarded for it justifiably. Think of the guys who invested in Microsoft or Apple very early on and held on to their shares for a decade. Those guys are rich beyond their dreams. Warren Buffet is one of the richest person in the world because he invested in all the right places at a very early age.

Why do you it think is any different for Bitcoin? Early adopters will get filthy rich (they already are). There will be a new class of millionaires and billionaires. Wasn't this case during the dotcom bubble too? Lots of people got crazy rich during that time. Same thing will happen with cryptocurrencies. People adopting now will get rich. For people adopting 10 years later, it will be just another asset giving 5-10% ROI a year. It's all about risk vs reward premium.

Unlike companies, cryptocurrencies have no national border. So while calculating marketcap we can't just compare it to Amazon or any other company. Cypto's reach is global and possibility of much large marketcaps.

Having said all this, there is no guarantee Bitcoin will be the dominant coin of the future. Most altcoins are technologically far superior to Bitcoin. It's questionable how long the network effect will keep Bitcoin at No.1. With the impending hard fork on August 1, the flippening might finally happen.

I wouldn't call my logic weird, per se. I just get fed up with a lot of people who think bitcoin will reach the stars because 'they want it bad enough and their heart is pure'. You must understand that in order for a bitcoin to be worth 30K, someone has to buy this coin believing it will go higher. True, there might be a lot of crypto millionaires and billionaires, but as soon as they try to cash out, the markets will drop again. That's the (only) problem with cryptos; the price will not be fixed, meaning that when someone takes out his fiat money, bitcoins price will drop. When one thousand holders all cash out 30K, the price will drop further.

Also, you can't compare an extremely young asset class to one of the most dominant and globally accepted assets in the world. Gold has been a standard for wealth and security for thousands of years. I agree bitcoin can definitely take golds place in a few decades, but you have to realise most people today are highly sceptical and conservative.

Last, the flippening will never happen. People are realising slowly but steadily that there's no company on earth interested in using ethereums token, they're only interested in the tech and possibly the chain. Plus, there are a lot of materials and metals better than gold, more valuable, more rare, more pure, yet gold remains the ultimate standard. Bitcoin will forever remain the first crypto, the one above all. Most future investors will be looking for a safe investment that gives a better ROI than the bank. They won't go looking for coins they don't understand if bitcoin is right in front of them. Also, august 1st will be a non event, the upcoming fork is planned for november. If anything, august 1st will have a very small dip, nothing more.

You're assumption is that 10, 20, 30 yrs from now, everything will still be valued in fiat. However, everything could very well be valued in crypto in the coming future and thus these crypto millionaires and billionaires wouldn't need to "cash out". My point is, you're making a lot of assumptions to come to a conclusion that BTC can't break a $30,000 threshold. If there is one thing we DO know it's that honey badger don't give a fuck about what you think it can or can't do.

Hadn't thought of that. To follow up on that point, I believe in 20-40 years oil will be virtually gone, so the dollar won't be tied to oil anymore. It can go back to gold, it can go back to something new, like cryptos, or crypto (or another currency) will take dollars place. Like someone else said, everything is becoming more and more digital. It's only logical currency will become digital as well. Maybe BTC could become the eventual standard, a global currency. Btw my post wasn't intended to make a point, I just wanted to stimulate healthy debate about the future possibilities

Achievement unlocked 

[Whosdaddy]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

If you are basing this on what McAfee said, then I would say you actually dignify him by creating a thread in his honour and based on your calculation I see it largely impossible for 500k to be achieved in 3 years maybe in the future when the whole countries in the world is being represented like we have in forex, but not in 2020 at all. However, the 30k is possible but at the same time not without its own challenges which I don't see not coming on a regular basis to swing the price backwards.

As you talk about 2020 that the prices will go high then exactly it will go high if you are not just talking here you should go for investment by investment it is going very high. So everyone know that trade off everyone better so I would say that investment to make the bitcoin goal true.

[chaoscoinz]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

The economy would not be crippled. How would you change the btc into fiat?
What bank will let you deposit more than $10,000 without freezing your account?
Don't be silly brother, the reason why the governments around the world aren't to worried about bitcoin, is because for now, it is internet play money.
    Sure bitcoin is the future, but without further guidance and regulation, how many of us will be left in the cold when it's time to cashout? You can move small amounts into different accounts, and credit unions, but thats structuring , which is illegal. I guess it depends on which country your from.
But lets be real, how would you legally cash out on $1,000,000 worth of coins? Because I certainly would like to know!

[Netnox]

Even $30,000 per coin means a ROI of around 1,200% from the current rates. That means an annualized return of close to 28.2%. This is no small amount. The average returns from the United States Treasury Bonds right now is between 2.75% and 3.50% per year (depending on the tenure).

[ngin-x]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

The economy would not be crippled. How would you change the btc into fiat?
What bank will let you deposit more than $10,000 without freezing your account?
Don't be silly brother, the reason why the governments around the world aren't to worried about bitcoin, is because for now, it is internet play money.
    Sure bitcoin is the future, but without further guidance and regulation, how many of us will be left in the cold when it's time to cashout? You can move small amounts into different accounts, and credit unions, but thats structuring , which is illegal. I guess it depends on which country your from.
But lets be real, how would you legally cash out on $1,000,000 worth of coins? Because I certainly would like to know!

You don't get it. If Bitcoin ever becomes so big, that it's worth $100k/coin, you will not need to cash out. Bitcoin will become the de-facto currency. Your local grocery store is gonna be taking payments in Bitcoin. Your salary will be credited in Bitcoin. Fiat will be relegated to play money.

[HatakeKakashi]

We dont know what really happen in bitcoin after few years or decades . But we hope for sure that the bitcoin price will become higher and higher. More people for sure want bitcoin price will become 10k dollars up to 30 k dollars after few years. But for me I think the maximium price of bitcoin will become 20-30k and I think that highest price after waiting few years. Many peolle said the maximum price is 50k plus but I dont think will happen

[Rahar02]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

And why bitcoin will never be over 30K? is just because you said 10 trillion dollars unbelievable and unachievable?
Because many people will be a rich man in 3 years later?
I can't say for sure what will happen in the future, but considering bitcoin value growing in every year, if it's within $1000-$2000 and could leap even further after halving, then in 10 years later bitcoin should be worth around $25,000 it seems more realistic for me. But, who knows for sure? None of us.