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BCC (bitcoin cash) 会怎么走?
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Topic: BCC (bitcoin cash) 会怎么走? (Read 402 times)
big21313
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BCC (bitcoin cash) 会怎么走?
August 03, 2017, 07:51:43 AM
#1
比特币社区最近这周都被一条消息震撼着:矿池viaBTC 主动硬分叉BTC为BCC。
在前段时间大家好不容易看到BTC 的SW2X 过了80%的比例,避免了8月1日的硬分叉。成功把2M升级推迟到几个月后去解决。viaBTC主动硬分叉是很招人恨的。
到今天(2017/7/28),中国的比特币交易所基本认同了这个硬分叉BCC。国外的交易所大部分不认可,小部分认可。
最近在关注“极少信息下的推测/预测”这个概念,简单总结和预测下BCC以及它的走势:
1,viaBTC这个公司的影响力太小,品牌影响力弱。
2,viaBTC公司是比特大陆投资,逃路可能性不大。(这是本次最大风险。)
3,这次BCC分叉,主要原因是为了避免SW升级和主动大区块扩容。
4,BCC意图成为BTC激进改革的实验品。
5,BCC 为viaBTC 带来了巨大的品牌效应,至少大家知道了viaBTC在做交易所。如果这次分叉成功,viaBTC得到了最好的一次免费宣传。
上面是总结的事实部分。以下为推测:
5,考虑到目前BTC的购买与拥有是国外占大多数。按照供需原理,BCC在8月1日后将会引来大跌。毕竟大多数外国人是不愿意拥有BCC的,将卖出它。
6,即使做为BTC的实验品(目前LTC部分作用),目前价格也太高。目前LTC的总市价在BTC的5%左右。所以我觉得短期BCC的合理价格在BTC 5%。
7,BCC长期价值,依然来自用户和应用。8M大区块虽然可以解决拥堵和交易成本,但是毕竟这个痛点不够痛,且有各种山寨币的分担(比如LTC比BCC确认时间和成本都低)。从目前消息看,viaBTC并没有这方面的布置。
8,如果BCC 能够度过最初的卖潮,倒是可以在低点买些,用于对冲之后的其它可能的硬分叉,特别是11月大家预估的分叉。
9,如果viaBTC/国内币圈基于BCC能开发出更好的应用(比如智能合约平台等),BCC是很可能大涨的。(考虑bitcoin core的立场,好的idea 确实希望能自己来实现,如果BCC 有很好的idea,购买BCC因此获利是应得的。)
10,假设现有比特币有10%参与卖潮,按照2500的价格,大约需要40亿人民币的资金量。但是如果在5%以下逐步买盘,则可以下降到10-15亿人民币来完成布局。理论上可行性较高。
基于这样的判断,我在3500-2500的价格内把BCC在viaBTC 卖了大约70%。
margincc
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Re: BCC (bitcoin cash) 会怎么走?
August 03, 2017, 08:55:17 AM
#2
对于喜欢大区块和反对SW的用户,BCC才是最佳的选择
paddzzzz
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Re: BCC (bitcoin cash) 会怎么走?
August 04, 2017, 03:07:21 AM
#3
BCC价格跌到1000还是有很多人抄底的
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