A simplistic view of what is going on

[smoothie]

DHS has seized MTGOX's dwolla account and found they are operating without a license as a MSB.

Coinlab filed a lawsuit against MTGOX which gox has still to address. (dragging their feet)

DDOSer thinks he can capitalize on the bad news by DDOSing mtgox in hopes to create a panic sell off. What a noob lol.

Gox still dragging their feet on a ton of issues.

That pretty much sums it up in my view.

[1713550499]

1713550499

[1713550499]

1713550499

[UltimateReaper]

Well yeah... but like, so what?

The market is just gettin' jittery after such a long period of stagnation, people probably got too comfortable and are now being woken up

[smoothie]

Well yeah... but like, so what?

The market is just gettin' jittery after such a long period of stagnation, people probably got too comfortable and are now being woken up

So what? It was just a simple set of statements. Dont be too obvious of your BUTT-HURT-NESS okay? People are watching. Thanks 

[UltimateReaper]

Well yeah... but like, so what?

The market is just gettin' jittery after such a long period of stagnation, people probably got too comfortable and are now being woken up

So what? It was just a simple set of statements. Dont be too obvious of your BUTT-HURT-NESS okay? People are watching. Thanks 

No what I mean is why are you pointing out the obvious?

It's like going outside during a rainy day and saying "its raining"

If what you meant to say was that this was just an irrational response due to the accumulation of events see I would get that.

Also, I'm enjoying current events. In more ways than one.

[smoothie]

What is obvious to you or me isn't to everyone else.

That's why.

[Chainsaw]

Well yeah... but like, so what?

The market is just gettin' jittery after such a long period of stagnation, people probably got too comfortable and are now being woken up

So what? It was just a simple set of statements. Dont be too obvious of your BUTT-HURT-NESS okay? People are watching. Thanks 

No what I mean is why are you pointing out the obvious?

It's like going outside during a rainy day and saying "its raining"

If what you meant to say was that this was just an irrational response due to the accumulation of events see I would get that.

Also, I'm enjoying current events. In more ways than one.

I think it's closer to someone looking outside, noticing it's raining, turning on the TV, and seeing a report: "Acid Rain falls in <your city here>"

Sounds pretty damn scary, if you're not an expert in acid rain.

I appreciate smoothie's attempt to frame, at a high level, what the issue is, and what it is not.  

If everyone were rational-minded in their trading decisions, I believe all these events would be minimally impactful to Bitcoin's price in the short term, and favorable in the long term.  

But there is a price discovery timeframe before getting to logic.
Coincident with an already-protracted trading range waiting to decide, up or down.
Now coincident with a DDoS.

Like many of us here, I've all-but ignored DDoS attacks for awhile now.  But amidst this perfect storm...I'm more fearful it could be the final little push the market needs to make a bearish decision...right when it was otherwise so well-primed for a bullish one.

[Hawker]

The impressive thing is how resilient the market is.  Mtgox is down due to ddos. Its bank account in US has been frozen. Yet price has fallen about 5% only. 

[RodeoX]

I still don't understand why Gox smashed the deal with coinlab, knowing that without an MSB they are in violation of the law. No matter how bad the terms were for gox this can't be better.
Or did they think that FinCen was not serious?

[Hawker]

I still don't understand why Gox smashed the deal with coinlab, knowing that without an MSB they are in violation of the law. No matter how bad the terms were for gox this can't be better.
Or did they think that FinCen was not serious?

I suspect a lawyer filled in the bank forms long before FinCen came out with their rules and then mtgox was blindsided.

[ElectricMucus]

tl;dr get ready for the Long Slow Slide^TM

[UltimateReaper]

What is obvious to you or me isn't to everyone else.

That's why.

I see. Forgive me sensei! *bows*

[EuroTrash]

If nothing else this upcoming Bitcoin 2013 conference has suddenly become an event I want to go to.

[BitcoinAshley]

Price has only gone down 5% because bitcoin users are realizing that Gox dying a slow, painful death would be possibly the best thing that could happen to bitcoin.

Many people don't quit drugs until they stop hanging out with their drug addict friends.

Many people who, for the life of them, can't lrn2freemarket, don't stop giving money to a poorly performing business until it completely shuts down due to a long history of incompetence.

So, Gox dies, bitcoin gets stronger. The end.

[dandirk]

I still don't understand why Gox smashed the deal with coinlab, knowing that without an MSB they are in violation of the law. No matter how bad the terms were for gox this can't be better.
Or did they think that FinCen was not serious?

I suspect a lawyer filled in the bank forms long before FinCen came out with their rules and then mtgox was blindsided.

My guess is the account was opened when mtgox was smaller...  The CEO just opened up the account and forgot about it or didn't know the implications...  Not that this is an excuse, they are the biggest exchange they probably should have checked into legalities no matter how stupid we think they (laws) might be.

[MAbtc]

Price has only gone down 5% because bitcoin users are realizing that Gox dying a slow, painful death would be possibly the best thing that could happen to bitcoin.

Highly doubt it.

[Babylon]

The impressive thing is how resilient the market is.  Mtgox is down due to ddos. Its bank account in US has been frozen. Yet price has fallen about 5% only. 

This still seems like it would raise demand for bitcoins, not lower them, to me.  If I were DDOSing MYGox on this news i would expect to induce panic buying, among those looking to get out, not panic selling.

[QuantPlus]

Price has only gone down 5% because bitcoin users are realizing that Gox dying a slow, painful death would be possibly the best thing that could happen to bitcoin.

Many people don't quit drugs until they stop hanging out with their drug addict friends.

So, Gox dies, bitcoin gets stronger. The end.

I agree with everything...
Except one day Gox dies instantly like Full Tilt Poker.

The DOJ took 3 years preparing to take out FTP...
$1 billon BTC Cap is a rounding error to the US Govt...
And offshore gaming/entertainment sites are not exactly high priority.

And I kinda like your drug analogy...
But I prefer to use the Stockholm Syndrome analogy...
All Early Adopters with large holdings are being held hostage by Gox...
And are defending their captors.

But Bitcoin gets stronger minus Gox...
Just like poker is unstoppable minus FTP.

[MOB]

Is only Dwolla transfer blocked on Gox, or is it everything in fiat?  Like wire transfers too?

[Hawker]

Is only Dwolla transfer blocked on Gox, or is it everything in fiat?  Like wire transfers too?

Just Dwolla.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I still don't understand why Gox smashed the deal with coinlab, knowing that without an MSB they are in violation of the law. No matter how bad the terms were for gox this can't be better.
Or did they think that FinCen was not serious?

I suspect a lawyer filled in the bank forms long before FinCen came out with their rules and then mtgox was blindsided.

FinCEN came out with their updated guidance over two months ago.  I mean lets no pretend the rules cam out on Friday evening and by Monday morning they had a warrant.  Two months is a long time to either a) stop doing business with US customers or b) register as a MSB.