Remember last October when BFL said they would ship by the end of the month?

[mgio]

Given that it is now the second half of May and they haven't even finished development of 3 of the 4 of their products how could they have legitimately believed they were going to ship within a month at the time? Even if they had a working prototype they couldn't have done it. They didn't even have a working ASIC!

It should be quite obvious to anyone that that claim at the time (last fall) was nothing more than pure fraud intended to boost their pre-orders and scare off competitors.

Why are they not being investigated by state attorney generals or why is there no class action lawsuit being organized against them?

There is no way they can claim that they actually believed they would be able to ship a product at that time. No one is going to believe that a company was that completely ignorant as to the sechedule it takes to develop, test, produce, and ship an ASIC.

I'd like to see their e-mails and records subpoenaed so we can really see what was going on in the company at that time.

Now that Avalon Batch 2 is shipping, with batch 3 and the discrete chips not far behind, BFL hardware with be worthless when it finally does arrive. And a honest, fair estimate is about 3-4 months for just the first 10,000 units. Let's look at the schedule:

2-4 weeks for BFL to figure out the kinks in their single SC board.
2 weeks to order chips, assemble a couple of single SC machines, and ship them out to reviewers
2 weeks to receive enough chips and get the new PCBs made in large enough quantity
2 weeks to ramp up assembly
2 weeks to package and ship
10 weeks of production to make 10,000 units assuming they can make 1000 a week (it's ambitious).
Add in another 4 weeks for potential delays, of which there is always something

That's about 3-4 months just to get started making a dent in the backlog of pre-orders they have. By then we might even be seeing home-made Avalon ASIC machines out there mining.

If you don't believe it will take this long, look how long it's been since they got the first Jalapeno working and how many people have them? It takes a while to go from "prototype" to ramping up production to significant volume. And they don't even have a working prototype for the single SC/minirig right now.

[k9quaint]

Given that it is now the second half of May and they haven't even finished development of 3 of the 4 of their products how could they have legitimately believed they were going to ship within a month at the time? Even if they had a working prototype they couldn't have done it. They didn't even have a working ASIC!

Just a quick correction. They haven't finished development on 4 of their 4 products. They are still messing with the chip design.

[mgio]

I just released... that if difficulty goes up high enough such that no one who has a pre-order would have a hope of making their money back and BFL still hasn't shipped, then people will begin to ask for their money back from their pre-orders.

If BFL refuses, people will request refunds from paypal or their credit card (unless they paid with bitcoins). Paypal will close BFL's account and they won't be able to accept new orders. Everyone else will sue BFL to get a refund if BFL refuses. The legal costs and refunds will quickly cause them to go out of business.

This could all happen very suddenly once we cross that difficulty threshold. It's probably in the couple hundred million range, maybe 3 to 500 million?

We could easily see that difficulty hit by the end of the year if Avalon and ASICMiner continue on schedule.

[Cluster2k]

If BFL refuses, people will request refunds from paypal or their credit card (unless they paid with bitcoins). Paypal will close BFL's account and they won't be able to accept new orders. Everyone else will sue BFL to get a refund if BFL refuses. The legal costs and refunds will quickly cause them to go out of business.

No charge backs.  People will quickly realise this often quoted advantage of bitcoin over other electronic forms of payment is only an advantage for the merchant, and never for the customer if BFL should go bust.  What's more, as bitcoins sit squarely outside the traditional banking system it's going to be difficult and costly trying to get any back through the court system. 

I honestly have no idea if I'll ever get my mid 2012 order shipped.  At the moment I'd put the odds at 50/50 at best, with a daily decline.  BFL has to be burning through large chunks of money to keep employees on site and pay the rent.  Every time they ask for a PCB revision or another batch of test chips I shudder at the thought of how much all of this is costing.

[Brassguy]

 

I honestly have no idea if I'll ever get my mid 2012 order shipped.  At the moment I'd put the odds at 50/50 at best, with a daily decline.  BFL has to be burning through large chunks of money to keep employees on site and pay the rent.  Every time they ask for a PCB revision or another batch of test chips I shudder at the thought of how much all of this is costing.

I agree 50/50 at best... I guess I'm waiting until the bitter end on this one. If BFL doesn't ship, I guess no more mining for me.

... in other news, my asicminer shares are paying nice dividends

[Unacceptable]

I've already given up,not refunding though..............They will never catch up this year.

Looking into spending my BTC & cash on the "home-made Avalon ASIC" devices    Or someone elses devices,have to wait & see who comes up with what.

& I agree they lied about most everything since the beginning 

[PuertoLibre]

 

I honestly have no idea if I'll ever get my mid 2012 order shipped.  At the moment I'd put the odds at 50/50 at best, with a daily decline.  BFL has to be burning through large chunks of money to keep employees on site and pay the rent.  Every time they ask for a PCB revision or another batch of test chips I shudder at the thought of how much all of this is costing.

I agree 50/50 at best... I guess I'm waiting until the bitter end on this one. If BFL doesn't ship, I guess no more mining for me.

... in other news, my asicminer shares are paying nice dividends

How much are you earning with ASICMiner?

A round estimate?

[PuertoLibre]

I've already given up,not refunding though..............They will never catch up this year.

Looking into spending my BTC & cash on the "home-made Avalon ASIC" devices    Or someone elses devices,have to wait & see who comes up with what.

& I agree they lied about most everything since the beginning  

Believe it or not, you giving up saddens me a bit.

I used to remember how you were right up there with Lab Rat in supporting BFL. I recall even Lab Rat had some doubts a few months ago. I see they made him a moderator on BFL forums.

Edit: ASIC J is also starting to fall by the way side. When even hardcore supporters start to fall away....it's more troubling than even the hardest troll turning into a total shill.

[mgio]

If BFL refuses, people will request refunds from paypal or their credit card (unless they paid with bitcoins). Paypal will close BFL's account and they won't be able to accept new orders. Everyone else will sue BFL to get a refund if BFL refuses. The legal costs and refunds will quickly cause them to go out of business.

No charge backs.  People will quickly realise this often quoted advantage of bitcoin over other electronic forms of payment is only an advantage for the merchant, and never for the customer if BFL should go bust.  What's more, as bitcoins sit squarely outside the traditional banking system it's going to be difficult and costly trying to get any back through the court system. 

I honestly have no idea if I'll ever get my mid 2012 order shipped.  At the moment I'd put the odds at 50/50 at best, with a daily decline.  BFL has to be burning through large chunks of money to keep employees on site and pay the rent.  Every time they ask for a PCB revision or another batch of test chips I shudder at the thought of how much all of this is costing.

Not everyone paid with bitcoin though. I think it was bitcoin-only for the very early orders, but certainly by Sept or Oct, credit cards through paypal were an option. And I don't see anyone would pay by bitcoin if paypal/credit card was an option.

[Unacceptable]

I've already given up,not refunding though..............They will never catch up this year.

Looking into spending my BTC & cash on the "home-made Avalon ASIC" devices    Or someone elses devices,have to wait & see who comes up with what.

& I agree they lied about most everything since the beginning  

Believe it or not, you giving up saddens me a bit.

I used to remember how you were right up there with Lab Rat in supporting BFL. I recall even Lab Rat had some doubts a few months ago. I see they made him a moderator on BFL forums.

Edit: ASIC J is also starting to fall by the way side. When even hardcore supporters start to fall away....it's more troubling than even the hardest troll turning into a total shill.

Yeah,that was then...this is now    I'm just VERY tired of the excuses.I gave them the benefit of the doubt,my bad    

If my order was any later than say August,I'd would refund ASAP.But being first inline,I MAY have a chance to get my one unit.I did pay in BTC too,so it would a total wash of my 100 BTC I got in this 

Looks like I'm gonna keep my FPGA too,since the tradein expires on June 1st & I won't have the diff in BTC or cash to do it.Was hoping to earn the BTC by mining with my 30GH & do the tradein,but alas,it wasn't meant to be  

I really doubt BFL will finish shipping all preorders this year,hell maybe not even by next summer......so my "new order" wouldn't get to me till then,WAY TOO LATE

I won't bash em though.............yet   I'm just a "disatisfied whiner" to them  

[mgio]

I've already given up,not refunding though..............They will never catch up this year.

Looking into spending my BTC & cash on the "home-made Avalon ASIC" devices    Or someone elses devices,have to wait & see who comes up with what.

& I agree they lied about most everything since the beginning  

Believe it or not, you giving up saddens me a bit.

I used to remember how you were right up there with Lab Rat in supporting BFL. I recall even Lab Rat had some doubts a few months ago. I see they made him a moderator on BFL forums.

Edit: ASIC J is also starting to fall by the way side. When even hardcore supporters start to fall away....it's more troubling than even the hardest troll turning into a total shill.

Yeah,that was then...this is now    I'm just VERY tired of the excuses.I gave them the benefit of the doubt,my bad    

If my order was any later than say August,I'd would refund ASAP.But being first inline,I MAY have a chance to get my one unit.I did pay in BTC too,so it would a total wash of my 100 BTC I got in this 

Looks like I'm gonna keep my FPGA too,since the tradein expires on June 1st & I won't have the diff in BTC or cash to do it.Was hoping to earn the BTC by mining with my 30GH & do the tradein,but alas,it wasn't meant to be  

I really doubt BFL will finish shipping all preorders this year,hell maybe not even by next summer......so my "new order" wouldn't get to me till then,WAY TOO LATE

I won't bash em though.............yet   I'm just a "disatisfied whiner" to them  

My prediction is that they will go out of business before they can fill even half of the pre-orders they have now.

[smoothie]

I say they can't even finish 1/3rd of their orders before going out of business.

[PeZ]

The only place to assemble electronics on a large scale and make a profit is China. The fact that BFL is trying to do it in the US is a major alarm bell. There is absolutely no way they will have the capability to meet their current orders. The cost is far too great. They will have to hire facilities and people in China to get the work done. That will take several months to organize.

[mgio]

The only place to assemble electronics on a large scale and make a profit is China. The fact that BFL is trying to do it in the US is a major alarm bell. There is absolutely no way they will have the capability to meet their current orders. The cost is far too great. They will have to hire facilities and people in China to get the work done. That will take several months to organize.

Yes. I actually assumed they were assembling in China until relatively recently when I was reading their announcements and realized they were trying to do it in the US. There is no way they will hit production of 400 units/day assembling in the US. At least not for a reasonable price.

[Bicknellski]

Given that it is now the second half of May and they haven't even finished development of 3 of the 4 of their products how could they have legitimately believed they were going to ship within a month at the time? Even if they had a working prototype they couldn't have done it. They didn't even have a working ASIC!

It should be quite obvious to anyone that that claim at the time (last fall) was nothing more than pure fraud intended to boost their pre-orders and scare off competitors.

Why are they not being investigated by state attorney generals or why is there no class action lawsuit being organized against them?

There is no way they can claim that they actually believed they would be able to ship a product at that time. No one is going to believe that a company was that completely ignorant as to the sechedule it takes to develop, test, produce, and ship an ASIC.

I'd like to see their e-mails and records subpoenaed so we can really see what was going on in the company at that time.

Now that Avalon Batch 2 is shipping, with batch 3 and the discrete chips not far behind, BFL hardware with be worthless when it finally does arrive. And a honest, fair estimate is about 3-4 months for just the first 10,000 units. Let's look at the schedule:

2-4 weeks for BFL to figure out the kinks in their single SC board.
2 weeks to order chips, assemble a couple of single SC machines, and ship them out to reviewers
2 weeks to receive enough chips and get the new PCBs made in large enough quantity
2 weeks to ramp up assembly
2 weeks to package and ship
10 weeks of production to make 10,000 units assuming they can make 1000 a week (it's ambitious).
Add in another 4 weeks for potential delays, of which there is always something

That's about 3-4 months just to get started making a dent in the backlog of pre-orders they have. By then we might even be seeing home-made Avalon ASIC machines out there mining.

If you don't believe it will take this long, look how long it's been since they got the first Jalapeno working and how many people have them? It takes a while to go from "prototype" to ramping up production to significant volume. And they don't even have a working prototype for the single SC/minirig right now.

Sorry for your frustration and what has happened since you ordered. It is unfortunate that BFL is not delivering any working products to you the customers waiting in queue. I hope people who might thinking of ordering take this as a warning and do not order and that most of those who pre-ordered will never order from BFL again. The best thing would be for people to either get a refund, or hopefully get some sort of unit soon before the spike in difficulty that is coming. As consumers we should all warn people off BFL and further to this do not order from them in future. This company does not deserve the support of the bitcoin community and we should vote with our wallets and ultimately they will close up shop thus ending this terrible chapter in Bitcoin history.

[chipd]

What did you expect from a bunch (ex) conmen with no, or little real-life work experience?

[shapemaker]

Why are they not being investigated by state attorney generals or why is there no class action lawsuit being organized against them?

Because people still hold the irrational belief that BFL might ship their money printing machine "any day now".

Of course, the longer people hold off on trying to get their money back, the smaller the chance to actually get refunded.

"But but... they will surely ship my order tomorrow!"

Will be funny to watch the eventual backlash. Popcorn anyone?

[shapemaker]

What's more, as bitcoins sit squarely outside the traditional banking system it's going to be difficult and costly trying to get any back through the court system.

You won't get any BTC back if it comes to that. The wonders of anonymous currency

[notlist3d]

I never thought about it... but i wonder how much pay each employee is getting.   Seems like at this point their employee pay would be well over what expected when planning all these projects.

[Frizz23]

Everyone else will sue BFL to get a refund if BFL refuses. The legal costs and refunds will quickly cause them to go out of business.

This could all happen very suddenly once we cross that difficulty threshold. It's probably in the couple hundred million range, maybe 3 to 500 million?

There won't be enough money to refund everybody. They had running expenses, labor costs, rent, research and development expenses, Josh & Sonny surely got a big piece of the cake too.

If panic, panic first. This is the wholesome lesson a lot of us learnt after the Dotcom crash in 2000, when everybody wanted to get out at the same time.