Remember last October when BFL said they would ship by the end of the month?

[Frizz23]

BFL lost alot of trust from its customers.
This is the last product line they will sell, even they want to release other versions they wont sell enough to make any profit.
They slowely kill their own company with those delays, non relevant (For customers) changes on their hardware.

This is why I am especially concerned!

- They kill their reputation step by step, with every new lie from Josh, with every new delay. They might announce one day a v2.0 ASIC, but no one will ever order from them again.
- They already have our money (we all paid 100% upfront).

-> So what's their incentive to keep the company alive and finally ship their products - and not just take the money and run?

[Bigrah]

The only place to assemble electronics on a large scale and make a profit is China. The fact that BFL is trying to do it in the US is a major alarm bell. There is absolutely no way they will have the capability to meet their current orders. The cost is far too great. They will have to hire facilities and people in China to get the work done. That will take several months to organize.

Sorry but that is simply not true..

First of all we are not talking about large scale. The maybe 10.000 Boards or whatever will be the output of a small plant in a day. (To get it through the whole plant will take 3-5 days..)
And i worked in one and knew another within 50km from my place in middle europe. Where everything is much more expensive than in most parts of the US.

Its simple: high tech with small work force..

And its much more irrelevant if its a product like a miner where you have 50000%  of profit after producing the chips.. 2$ more per board does not count when you make 2k$ profit per board...

[shapemaker]

And its much more irrelevant if its a product like a miner where you have 50000%  of profit after producing the chips.. 2$ more per board does not count when you make 2k$ profit per board...

First, you need to get the boards/finished products out the door...

[Schrankwand]

The only place to assemble electronics on a large scale and make a profit is China. The fact that BFL is trying to do it in the US is a major alarm bell. There is absolutely no way they will have the capability to meet their current orders. The cost is far too great. They will have to hire facilities and people in China to get the work done. That will take several months to organize.

Not really true. Even the big names like Intel and AMD are manufacturing in countries like Germany. They sold their chip factory in Dresden and it is named Global Foundries by now.

If I had the money, I had probably asked Global Foundries to design my ASIC Chips. They'd get it done in under a month, roll it out with ease  and at the same time do not even do anything above 110nm anymore. They just go crush it with up 14nm. 28nm designing and manufacturing is their little pet right now and in due time, they will allow 14nm right here in Europe.

nd i worked in one and knew another within 50km from my place in middle europe. Where everything is much more expensive than in most parts of the US.

Its simple: high tech with small work force..

Probably GF?

(Don't answer that. Internet and so on.)



As for BFL: I am flabbergasted at their performance. The problem with Bitcoin Mining is this: It would be way more profitable to NOT con people.

I have talked with some people about setting up an ASICs company and funding it. We then realized that we can only make money if we use at least 65nm or 40nm wafers in the process, or, at best, buy existing chips from a manufacturer at a higher price.

I have talked to some developing companies who then quoted some estimations between 1-2 million and 5.5 million initial investment cost. Here is the kicker: Almost every company said "We can get the design and initial chips done within a month or so, then after testing, we will be able to manufacture within 10 weeks."

So, where does stuff go wrong? Good question, but the main problem is designing cases and designs before prototyping. There can be significant fluctuation between specs. As someone told me, the main issue in chip design for high end chips is basically getting power consumption down while cranking as much power on the chip (How many cores or gates at what frequency).

The cost of a P&P machine for the chips on the PCB? Is not even that big either. The reason big companies manufacture in China is also the size of their operation. Think about it: Let us say you are a company and produce 10000 chips for 10$  per piece. Now think about a company that produces 1.000.000 for 9.20. It wouldnt mean shit for my first assembly, somewhere around 8000$. If I sell that thing for 40$ anyway, who gives a shit about the 0.80 if you are faster. But if we are talking one million chips and your shareholders asking for their money back, hooyah, you are in China in no time, getting your 800.000 Dollar difference.

First, you need to get the boards/finished products out the door...

I don't really get where the problem is. With the money they have, they should just get it done and already be working on the product REPLACING the one getting out of the door now. That should be simple, actually. Best would be announcing the Gen 2 the day they ship Gen 1.

[PuertoLibre]

I think it is safe to say that BFL's chips never got above 300mhz.....

Actually, if the 2 chip Jally's performance is any indication, they probably never got beyond 160mhz at any reasonable power spec. My chart shows what BFL said would be their power draw per Gh/w.

Though we all know now the overall system is several multiples of 1watt per Gh/s

[PuertoLibre]

This last edition I made based on BFL Customer Service replies also went down the drain...



I wouldn't even know what to estimate in terms of delivery times. Has anyone heard any new estimates from customer service these days?

[Schrankwand]

I think it is safe to say that BFL's chips never got above 300mhz.....

Actually, if the 2 chip Jally's performance is any indication, they probably never got beyond 160mhz at any reasonable power spec. My chart shows what BFL said would be their power draw per Gh/w.

Though we all know now the overall system is several multiples of 1watt per Gh/s

I would argue they should not have focused on Power too much. Making it strong first, then making it long term  profitable, would have been smarter. Advertising power consumption is something GPU manufacturers have rarely done, since they usually focus on performance first, then hope that someone is going to build a way to get another 75 watts into their cards.

ASIC manufacturers should basically follow this tradition at first. If you have 50gh at 400w, you can still get it down to 50w or less, but first build 50gh/s.

[PuertoLibre]

Hey, I have a crazy question.

If BFL said that they got to 500mhz to 1.1Ghz which was roughly...16Gh/s~ per chip when they were still using plastic packaging....

How exactly would the chips have survived if they hadn't switched over to the new packaging?

"Me thinks" they knew their chips were probably going to be very very hot....then again, I have no proof of that.

----------------------

If the old test batch had a power efficiency of 1 watt per Gh/s...
If run at high clock at 1.1Gh's it would have consumed about 120watts per chip at the old spec.

The current chips would have anywhere from (x1.76 watts) to (x6.00watts) per Gh/s.

[Schrankwand]

Hey, I have a crazy question.

If BFL said that they got to 500mhz to 1.1Ghz which was roughly...16Gh/s~ per chip when they were still using plastic packaging....

How exactly would the chips have survived if they hadn't switched over to the new packaging?

Me think they knew their chips were probably going to be very very hot....then again, I have no proof of that.

The first shipped out Jalapenos I have heard already killed one or two ventilation fans inside...

[PuertoLibre]

Hey, I have a crazy question.

If BFL said that they got to 500mhz to 1.1Ghz which was roughly...16Gh/s~ per chip when they were still using plastic packaging....

How exactly would the chips have survived if they hadn't switched over to the new packaging?

Me think they knew their chips were probably going to be very very hot....then again, I have no proof of that.

The first shipped out Jalapenos I have heard already killed one or two ventilation fans inside...

I think the Jalapeno casing is inadequately ventilated. Then again, I am no expert on fans or thermal designs. The same issues with overheating happened with FPGA's if I recall correctly.

[freedomno1]

Everyone else will sue BFL to get a refund if BFL refuses. The legal costs and refunds will quickly cause them to go out of business.

This could all happen very suddenly once we cross that difficulty threshold. It's probably in the couple hundred million range, maybe 3 to 500 million?

There won't be enough money to refund everybody. They had running expenses, labor costs, rent, research and development expenses, Josh & Sonny surely got a big piece of the cake too.

If panic, panic first. This is the wholesome lesson a lot of us learnt after the Dotcom crash in 2000, when everybody wanted to get out at the same time.


[/quote]

And get a Dr evil wallet haha lol gl to bfl'ers may as well settle
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=186007.60;topicseen

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Everyone else will sue BFL to get a refund if BFL refuses. The legal costs and refunds will quickly cause them to go out of business.

This could all happen very suddenly once we cross that difficulty threshold. It's probably in the couple hundred million range, maybe 3 to 500 million?

There won't be enough money to refund everybody. They had running expenses, labor costs, rent, research and development expenses, Josh & Sonny surely got a big piece of the cake too.

If panic, panic first. This is the wholesome lesson a lot of us learnt after the Dotcom crash in 2000, when everybody wanted to get out at the same time.

<edit: snipped line not needed, for I misquoted the above>

BFL is on record in stating that all the pre-order money has not been touched and could easily refund every single person if that were to be the case. Besides, it is highly illegal for them to touch any money with the except of those who paid and received product. Seeing that a high percentage of rigs went to non-paying customers, their bank account is still flush. If it is not, then somebody is going back to jail.

So, where does stuff go wrong? Good question, but the main problem is designing cases and designs before prototyping. There can be significant fluctuation between specs.

With all the brain power BFL has at their disposal, it's safe to assume that they know this, for that's indicative of any product building entity. If they deny knowing this, then they truly are asea.

So why a warehouse full of product they no longer need and shouldn't have ordered in the first place? For the yochdog and My Little Pony show. And why the ovens from eBay showcased near the lobby oppose to being next to the assembling room so that IF they were ever to be fired up, they wouldn't be carting parts from the front of the building to the rear? Answer: same dog and pony show. And why bring a box of fans to CES? You guessed it! The exact same dog and pony show.

(They did have a choice as to where to put the oven room, for remember that they leased this facility with a built-to-suit clause (and a permit was never filed--this is a true fact), and it suited them just fine to put one assembly room at the entrance of the building less than 10 feet from their fancy signage, and the other assembly room toward the read, near the warehouse. Guess which room will never be used for what it looks like its meant to be used for. Also guess where the most logically placement of said room should be.)

Amazingly, with each passing day, BFL makes CedarTec look legitimate.

Investor: I would like to request a refund.
BFL: You know that you would be giving up your queue position don't you?
Inv: I'll take that chance.
BFL: Fine! It's your lost, cocksucker! Your refund queue position number is...

<Two months later.>

Recording: El número que ha marcado no está en servicio. Pulse uno de ...

I just thought of something else, though probably not important: Everyone of those assemblers probably had to sign a release prior to the filming of BFL's promotional video. I'm pretty sure they were farmed out from some temp service for only one day, otherwise them doing a whole lotta nada if they've been on the payroll since that shoot.

If Sonny is not the CEO as stated on the Wyoming SoS site which names a Chris Vleisides, claiming to be his step dad, then how the hell did a career photographer team up with an engineer in Paris decided to get into the Bitcoin mining business?

I know the answer, but will say it for later.

[smoothie]

i already called it....

once they were willing to let a community member from the forums visit their site it screamed DOG AND PONY SHOW.

Sure enough that is what it was.

All visits have really produced nothing at the customer end nor did it prove that BFL actually have what they say they have, beside all the stupid cases for mini rigs that they dont need anymore.

Sorry PG I just had to get credit lol you know me. 

[emanymton]

asea

I think we need a Phinnaeus Gage appreciation thread, if one doesn't already exist  

[tom_o]

i already called it....

once they were willing to let a community member from the forums visit their site it screamed DOG AND PONY SHOW.

Sure enough that is what it was.

All visits have really produced nothing at the customer end nor did it prove that BFL actually have what they say they have, beside all the stupid cases for mini rigs that they dont need anymore.

Sorry PG I just had to get credit lol you know me. 

They do need those cases. Where else would they have put all the trade in FPGAs?

[SolarSilver]

i already called it....

Can somebody dig up the picture with the Anti-BFL clowns?

Who's laughing now? :-)

[YipYip]

BFL lost alot of trust from its customers.
This is the last product line they will sell, even they want to release other versions they wont sell enough to make any profit.
They slowely kill their own company with those delays, non relevant (For customers) changes on their hardware.

This is why I am especially concerned!

- They kill their reputation step by step, with every new lie from Josh, with every new delay. They might announce one day a v2.0 ASIC, but no one will ever order from them again.
- They already have our money (we all paid 100% upfront).

-> So what's their incentive to keep the company alive and finally ship their products - and not just take the money and run?

Totally agree .... especially with technology startups it very very easy to say oh well it did not work ..thats business.. It Is almost impossible to prove illegal activity/imbesselement or fraud due to this

Meanwhile Sonny,Josh have been sitting on 400k salary packages ...is a very old story this one..sometimes there is an incentive for failure so that after a company has been closed the IRS/ATO can find it very difficult to go back over the books due to the fact that the entity no longer exists i.e the person that is BFL is dead

Anyway having been working for a few startups in my time & witnessing these type of shenanygins first hand I understand the mentality...once there are skeletons in the cupboards its time to kill that story off fast !!

[Phinnaeus Gage]

BFL lost alot of trust from its customers.
This is the last product line they will sell, even they want to release other versions they wont sell enough to make any profit.
They slowely kill their own company with those delays, non relevant (For customers) changes on their hardware.

This is why I am especially concerned!

- They kill their reputation step by step, with every new lie from Josh, with every new delay. They might announce one day a v2.0 ASIC, but no one will ever order from them again.
- They already have our money (we all paid 100% upfront).

-> So what's their incentive to keep the company alive and finally ship their products - and not just take the money and run?

Totally agree .... especially with technology startups it very very easy to say oh well it did not work ..thats business.. It Is almost impossible to prove illegal activity/imbesselement or fraud due to this

Meanwhile Sonny,Josh have been sitting on 400k salary packages ...is a very old story this one..sometimes there is an incentive for failure so that after a company has been closed the IRS/ATO can find it very difficult to go back over the books due to the fact that the entity no longer exists i.e the person that is BFL is dead

Anyway having been working for a few startups in my time & witnessing these type of shenanygins first hand I understand the mentality...once there are skeletons in the cupboards its time to kill that story off fast !!

I'm not sure if Smoothie also mention this, but...

It is illegal to spend customer's pre-sale money until product has been shipped!

[k9quaint]

BFL lost alot of trust from its customers.
This is the last product line they will sell, even they want to release other versions they wont sell enough to make any profit.
They slowely kill their own company with those delays, non relevant (For customers) changes on their hardware.

This is why I am especially concerned!

- They kill their reputation step by step, with every new lie from Josh, with every new delay. They might announce one day a v2.0 ASIC, but no one will ever order from them again.
- They already have our money (we all paid 100% upfront).

-> So what's their incentive to keep the company alive and finally ship their products - and not just take the money and run?

Totally agree .... especially with technology startups it very very easy to say oh well it did not work ..thats business.. It Is almost impossible to prove illegal activity/imbesselement or fraud due to this

Meanwhile Sonny,Josh have been sitting on 400k salary packages ...is a very old story this one..sometimes there is an incentive for failure so that after a company has been closed the IRS/ATO can find it very difficult to go back over the books due to the fact that the entity no longer exists i.e the person that is BFL is dead

Anyway having been working for a few startups in my time & witnessing these type of shenanygins first hand I understand the mentality...once there are skeletons in the cupboards its time to kill that story off fast !!

I'm not sure if Smoothie also mention this, but...

It is illegal to spend customer's pre-sale money until product has been shipped!

I know it is against tax laws in the US to book a customer's pre-sale as revenue until it has shipped. I don't know of any law regarding how pre-order funds/deposits etc can be spent.
Could you provide a citation for this?

[tom_o]

BFL lost alot of trust from its customers.
This is the last product line they will sell, even they want to release other versions they wont sell enough to make any profit.
They slowely kill their own company with those delays, non relevant (For customers) changes on their hardware.

This is why I am especially concerned!

- They kill their reputation step by step, with every new lie from Josh, with every new delay. They might announce one day a v2.0 ASIC, but no one will ever order from them again.
- They already have our money (we all paid 100% upfront).

-> So what's their incentive to keep the company alive and finally ship their products - and not just take the money and run?

Totally agree .... especially with technology startups it very very easy to say oh well it did not work ..thats business.. It Is almost impossible to prove illegal activity/imbesselement or fraud due to this

Meanwhile Sonny,Josh have been sitting on 400k salary packages ...is a very old story this one..sometimes there is an incentive for failure so that after a company has been closed the IRS/ATO can find it very difficult to go back over the books due to the fact that the entity no longer exists i.e the person that is BFL is dead

Anyway having been working for a few startups in my time & witnessing these type of shenanygins first hand I understand the mentality...once there are skeletons in the cupboards its time to kill that story off fast !!

I'm not sure if Smoothie also mention this, but...

It is illegal to spend customer's pre-sale money until product has been shipped!

Yep as theres a difference between preorders and investors - investors money can be spent and pissed down the drain, but Sonny isn't allowed to solicit investors. See where this is going?