New Mining Farm. $100k to invest. Advice needed.

[BitTM1]

Hello.
I read as much as I could find about mining and still have couple questions and ideas I'd like to ask.
As I understand main thing to make profit in mining bitcoin is electricity cost. I have it at $0.02  so I'm expecting huge profits from it and ROI in 6months. But is it really that simple as it looks like?
Can I expect to run that farm for many years successfully with reinvesting large share of profits at the beggining? What you believe will be value of bitcoin in 2years? 5years?

How to correctly calculate increasing mining difficulty and which mining profitability calculator to use?
Most of them shows ~$350 profit per month without cost of electricity with Antminer S9 which sounds too good to be true to double up investment in 1 year.
But https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator shows that with S9 numbers it will be no profit in couple months with 10% Difficulty Increment. And I read that difficulty could increase more than 10%. So is this correct and all miners will become unprofitable in next months? How mining farms are dealing with it?

Which miner to choose for that investment? I'm thinking to buy about ~100 Avalon 741 miners directly from canaan.io since Antminer S9 is always sold out and I read they have a lot of issues with reliability and Bitmain support isn't the best to deal with.
I'm looking to get as much TH/s as possible and don't care too much about cost of electricity cause I have it cheap. But with Antminer S9 if they're not working 24/7/365 maybe Avalon 741 is more profitable in long run?
Is canaan.io legit? Does anyone had orders for $20k+ with them? Do they accept bitcoin for payment?


Would be nice if someone could share their experiences or ideas

[1714887500]

1714887500

[1714887500]

1714887500

[veleten]

Hello.
I read as much as I could find about mining and still have couple questions and ideas I'd like to ask.
As I understand main thing to make profit in mining bitcoin is electricity cost. I have it at $0.02  so I'm expecting huge profits from it and ROI in 6months. But is it really that simple as it looks like?
Can I expect to run that farm for many years successfully with reinvesting large share of profits at the beggining? What you believe will be value of bitcoin in 2years? 5years?

How to correctly calculate increasing mining difficulty and which mining profitability calculator to use?
Most of them shows ~$350 profit per month without cost of electricity with Antminer S9 which sounds too good to be true to double up investment in 1 year.
But https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator shows that with S9 numbers it will be no profit in couple months with 10% Difficulty Increment. And I read that difficulty could increase more than 10%. So is this correct and all miners will become unprofitable in next months? How mining farms are dealing with it?

Which miner to choose for that investment? I'm thinking to buy about ~100 Avalon 741 miners directly from canaan.io since Antminer S9 is always sold out and I read they have a lot of issues with reliability and Bitmain support isn't the best to deal with.
I'm looking to get as much TH/s as possible and don't care too much about cost of electricity cause I have it cheap. But with Antminer S9 if they're not working 24/7/365 maybe Avalon 741 is more profitable in long run?
Is canaan.io legit? Does anyone had orders for $20k+ with them? Do they accept bitcoin for payment?


Would be nice if someone could share their experiences or ideas

with this electricity cost and proper setup,you are bound to make profit
the things you should consider are:
1.electricity costs
2.equipment cost
3.facility:cooling,power,security of operations
4.your ASIC supplier's support-with many asics come many breakdowns and warranty cases

^these are the main things to pay attention to

Antminers s9 are around 300$ WITHOUT electricity costs at the moment, 2cents power should result in around 288$ or so
difficulty is bound to drop,since at least 5% total hashing power is mining Bitcoin Cash at the moment (Viabtc pool)
but ,usually,difficulty adjustments,reflect on price
ROI is stable around 7 to 10 months,depending on how your equipment breakdown rate is,electricity,operational costs etc.
s9 are not known to be stable and they break like bitches

[BitTM1]

Thanks for your reply.

Yes I get that, operatonal cost, electricity cost and etc can be easy counted. But with difficullty increasing 10% every two weeks will it keep increasing like this? It's hard to calculate profitability with this fast growing difficulty numbers but if 14TH/S makes ~$300
minus operational costs I can't see how this wouldn't be profitable with cheap electricity?
I don't get why so little poeple jump into this mining business who have cheap electricity. What other legal businesess generates ROI in under 1 year that easy?

With more reliable Avalon maybe it's wiser to choose them instead of Bitmains S9? 2x Avalon 741 has the 14.6 TH/s and can be bought for ~1400USD from canaani.io

[veleten]

Thanks for your reply.

Yes I get that, operatonal cost, electricity cost and etc can be easy counted. But with difficullty increasing 10% every two weeks will it keep increasing like this? It's hard to calculate profitability with this fast growing difficulty numbers but if 14TH/S makes ~$300
minus operational costs I can't see how this wouldn't be profitable with cheap electricity?
I don't get why so little poeple jump into this mining business who have cheap electricity. What other legal businesess generates ROI in under 1 year that easy?

With more reliable Avalon maybe it's wiser to choose them instead of Bitmains S9? 2x Avalon 741 has the 14.6 TH/s and can be bought for ~1400USD from canaani.io

yes,Avalons are much better,especially if you can get them for 1400$ for two of them
you do not count 300$ profit,you must include everything-electricity,running costs,possible break downs and in reality what you are getting is around 200+- 20-30$
it is profitable,but very risky and requires a lot of work,this farm will take up most of your free time

[BitTM1]

What work is needed after initial set up? I thought after initial setup miners doesn't require a lot of attention if they are reliable?

I'm mainly concerned about increasing difficulty more than 10% every month and reliability.
If Avalons are reliable than it's only difficulty.
I think with $0.02 electricity cost it is still no brainer to invest in mining?

[QuintLeo]

BTC hasn't averaged 10% jumps for a while - gets 1 or 2 in a row when Bitmain ships out a batch of S9 units then flattens out for a while.

 Also, once profitability for folks in the 3c/kwh electric range drops far enough, SALES of new miners will start dropping and diff increases on average will drop quite a bit.


 We're in the middle of a transition phase right now, the current generation miners like the S9 are the FIRST that were built on a "current" process node ever, and folks are still getting used to the fact that "new generation of miners every 6-9 months" isn't going to HAPPEN any more - and ROI timeframes are also likely to extend out a lot more than the old-time "better ROI in 6 months or less or the new stuff is going to kill your profitability" norm.

 The big price surge on almost all cryptocoins this spring confused things a lot, but the NORM in the future is going to be an expectation of 1-3 YEARS to achieve ROI for most coins most of the time.

 Unfortunately, most folks haven't wrapped their mind around that yet, they're too used to the OLD model where you never HAD 1-3 years to achieve ROI because the generations were so short.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Well I'll be damned... 2 intelligent 'I want to invest xxx$ to start a farm' threads! The other is Avg yield from Avg Pool Spank me red and call me Suzy...

Unfortunately, most folks haven't wrapped their mind around that yet, they're too used to the OLD model where you never HAD 1-3 years to achieve ROI because the generations were so short.

heh heh, ja. Almost like typical ROI on manufacturing capital equipment purchases. Welcome to the more mainstream real business world folks.

As Quint said, thankfully the node wars will be stable for quite some time so the current 14/16nm miners will have a nice long run of another 1-2 years before the next Sparkly Thing that is also worthwhile comes out..

[bitcoinmaniac52]

BTC hasn't averaged 10% jumps for a while - gets 1 or 2 in a row when Bitmain ships out a batch of S9 units then flattens out for a while.

 Also, once profitability for folks in the 3c/kwh electric range drops far enough, SALES of new miners will start dropping and diff increases on average will drop quite a bit.


 We're in the middle of a transition phase right now, the current generation miners like the S9 are the FIRST that were built on a "current" process node ever, and folks are still getting used to the fact that "new generation of miners every 6-9 months" isn't going to HAPPEN any more - and ROI timeframes are also likely to extend out a lot more than the old-time "better ROI in 6 months or less or the new stuff is going to kill your profitability" norm.

 The big price surge on almost all cryptocoins this spring confused things a lot, but the NORM in the future is going to be an expectation of 1-3 YEARS to achieve ROI for most coins most of the time.

 Unfortunately, most folks haven't wrapped their mind around that yet, they're too used to the OLD model where you never HAD 1-3 years to achieve ROI because the generations were so short.

Great insight. It used to be such that new miners came out every year and it was a waste to keep your miner 3 years, but it certainly is not the case today at all.

On a complete sidenote... I wonder what would happen if the world's largest supercomputer started mining Bitcoin. How many would it make each day? MY bet is less than a laptop did back in 2009. lol

[QuintLeo]

Since ALL of the large supercomputers are massively parallel machines (some massively GPU parallel), they might actually manage to beat a S9 at Bitcoin mining.

 Tradeoff - the ELECTRIC usage of the things is commonly measured in MEGAwatts.....

[Philopolymath]

Idiot...if you had just bought BTC  when you posted you would already have more than doubled your investment.

[GMPoison]

Idiot...if you had just bought BTC  when you posted you would already have more than doubled your investment.

Thank you captain hindsight for your valuable input.

[LavaJack]

Where is everyone getting 2-3c/kwh? In my area, power runs at 8.9c

[soothaa]

Where is everyone getting 2-3c/kwh? In my area, power runs at 8.9c

People who usually live near a source of cheap power - either a hydro electric dam or a nuclear power plant. Lots of places have really cheap power, it is just that in the inner city or in more densely populated areas the power tends to cost more.

[GMPoison]

Where is everyone getting 2-3c/kwh? In my area, power runs at 8.9c

You can mine profitably at 8.9c/kWh, that is around what most profit estimations are based off of. Those mining with a 2-3c/kWh rate are those making BIG bucks.

[GMPoison]

Where is everyone getting 2-3c/kwh? In my area, power runs at 8.9c

People who usually live near a source of cheap power - either a hydro electric dam or a nuclear power plant. Lots of places have really cheap power, it is just that in the inner city or in more densely populated areas the power tends to cost more.

I would actually love to know where exactly, because even if you look it up the cheapest electricity rates in the USA are in Washington but they are nowhere near 2-3c/kWh.

2-3c/kWh must be the rates that huge mining operations get, but I can't imagine anything under a $100,000 mining operation ever getting rates like that, even if you do live in Washington, no?

[Philopolymath]

or you could study the TESLA patents and have FREE electricity
Or build your own version of Walter Russell's Optical Dynamo..
or John Hutchisons coils or Stubblefields coils

Free electricity is easy...NOT GETTING SHOT FOR DOING IT..... is the hard part

Just be sure to destroy them before the Chinese army seizes your factory bank account and hard drives and deports you back to Canada

[QuintLeo]

Where is everyone getting 2-3c/kwh? In my area, power runs at 8.9c

People who usually live near a source of cheap power - either a hydro electric dam or a nuclear power plant. Lots of places have really cheap power, it is just that in the inner city or in more densely populated areas the power tends to cost more.

I would actually love to know where exactly, because even if you look it up the cheapest electricity rates in the USA are in Washington but they are nowhere near 2-3c/kWh.

2-3c/kWh must be the rates that huge mining operations get, but I can't imagine anything under a $100,000 mining operation ever getting rates like that, even if you do live in Washington, no?

 Don't look at statewide averages - this has been pointed out before A FEW TIMES in various threads.
 Any site that ONLY lists a "by state" rate is listing an AVERAGE - I don't know of ANY state in the US (possible exception for Rhode Island as it's so small) that is only covered by one power company/PUD.
 Washington State in particular is covered by AT LEAST 20 different power companies/PUDs.
 I know of quite a few COUNTIES that have more than one power company/PUD that SPLIT the country between them (Iowa is notorious this way).

 As has been SPECIFICALLY mentioned in a few threads, there are 3 counties in Washington State that can get you under 3 cents/kwh all-up cost - Chelan and Douglas for EVERYONE (Residential rates ALL UP are 3c/kwh or a hair less, as are "general service" AKA small business rates) and Grant if you use over 200 KW on average (mid-sized business rate) or higher.
 All 3 have "big" rates that are even less all-up, though none of them get down UNDER 2c/kwh (as I recall Grant gets the closest on it's "industrial" rate but it's still more like 2.5 or a bit more).
 As it happens, each of these counties is covered entirely by a single county-wide PUD - and all 3 of them OWN 1 or 2 major dams on the Columbia River (2 each for Chelan and Grant, 1 for Douglas, IIRC).

 For reference - the Grand Coulee dam (largest capacity dam in the US and as I recall it's still #1 for all of North America) straddles Grant and Okanogan counties (the Columbia is the border between the two counties in that area), but that damn is Federal owned (Bonneville Power Authority) and none of it's power output is sold to Grant County (not sure on Okanogan).

 The "average" for Washington state is a lot higher, though it's still one of the lowest STATEWIDE averages in the US it gets pulled up quite a bit by the Seattle/Tacoma area.


 Nuclear power in the US is NOT particularly cheap - way too much regulatory BS just getting the PERMITS to get plants built (and as I recall there hasn't been a nuclear plant COMPLETED in 2-3 decades), drives their amortized cost up a TON - and the INSURANCE for them is also very expen$ive (I think the only insurance carrier is the Federal Government, but not 100% sure there).

[GMPoison]

Where is everyone getting 2-3c/kwh? In my area, power runs at 8.9c

People who usually live near a source of cheap power - either a hydro electric dam or a nuclear power plant. Lots of places have really cheap power, it is just that in the inner city or in more densely populated areas the power tends to cost more.

I would actually love to know where exactly, because even if you look it up the cheapest electricity rates in the USA are in Washington but they are nowhere near 2-3c/kWh.

2-3c/kWh must be the rates that huge mining operations get, but I can't imagine anything under a $100,000 mining operation ever getting rates like that, even if you do live in Washington, no?

 Don't look at statewide averages - this has been pointed out before A FEW TIMES in various threads.
 Any site that ONLY lists a "by state" rate is listing an AVERAGE - I don't know of ANY state in the US (possible exception for Rhode Island as it's so small) that is only covered by one power company/PUD.
 Washington State in particular is covered by AT LEAST 20 different power companies/PUDs.
 I know of quite a few COUNTIES that have more than one power company/PUD that SPLIT the country between them (Iowa is notorious this way).

 As has been SPECIFICALLY mentioned in a few threads, there are 3 counties in Washington State that can get you under 3 cents/kwh all-up cost - Chelan and Douglas for EVERYONE (Residential rates ALL UP are 3c/kwh or a hair less, as are "general service" AKA small business rates) and Grant if you use over 200 KW on average (mid-sized business rate) or higher.
 All 3 have "big" rates that are even less all-up, though none of them get down UNDER 2c/kwh (as I recall Grant gets the closest on it's "industrial" rate but it's still more like 2.5 or a bit more).
 As it happens, each of these counties is covered entirely by a single county-wide PUD - and all 3 of them OWN 1 or 2 major dams on the Columbia River (2 each for Chelan and Grant, 1 for Douglas, IIRC).

 For reference - the Grand Coulee dam (largest capacity dam in the US and as I recall it's still #1 for all of North America) straddles Grant and Okanogan counties (the Columbia is the border between the two counties in that area), but that damn is Federal owned (Bonneville Power Authority) and none of it's power output is sold to Grant County (not sure on Okanogan).

 The "average" for Washington state is a lot higher, though it's still one of the lowest STATEWIDE averages in the US it gets pulled up quite a bit by the Seattle/Tacoma area.


 Nuclear power in the US is NOT particularly cheap - way too much regulatory BS just getting the PERMITS to get plants built (and as I recall there hasn't been a nuclear plant COMPLETED in 2-3 decades), drives their amortized cost up a TON - and the INSURANCE for them is also very expen$ive (I think the only insurance carrier is the Federal Government, but not 100% sure there).

Well you're right, just looked up local electricity rates in douglas, wow. I tried looking up industrial space however, I'm assuming they're mostly occupied by miners. A few houses here and there available for rent which I suppose you could operate out of if you're getting those kinds of electricity rates, but other than that there isn't much out there in the middle of nowhere.

[MrCrank]

or you could study the TESLA patents and have FREE electricity
Or build your own version of Walter Russell's Optical Dynamo..
or John Hutchisons coils or Stubblefields coils

Free electricity is easy...NOT GETTING SHOT FOR DOING IT..... is the hard part

Just be sure to destroy them before the Chinese army seizes your factory bank account and hard drives and deports you back to Canada

How possible free electricity?
I think is not really.. I find about Tesla but anybody realize it?



Circuit is easy, but how it works?

[QuintLeo]

Well you're right, just looked up local electricity rates in douglas, wow. I tried looking up industrial space however, I'm assuming they're mostly occupied by miners. A few houses here and there available for rent which I suppose you could operate out of if you're getting those kinds of electricity rates, but other than that there isn't much out there in the middle of nowhere.

 Douglas is mostly fairly empty - I think the whole country population is under 50,000, so there IS an issue with finding space outside of East Wenatchee (and space THERE is kinda pricey even when you CAN find it).
 Chelan and Grant have bigger cities, but still not really big - pretty sure both of those counties are under 100,000 total pop - Grant rentals tend to be pretty cheap, Chelan tends to be pricey worse then Douglas unless you can find something that is NOT in Wenatchee or very close, then it's only semi-pricey.

 Unless you're going BIG, you don't really need "industrial" space - for a small miner, "shop" or "warehouse" type space can work fine - but if you're going "big" you can probably afford to build out from scratch and likely SHOULD do so (reference GigaWatt).

 I've never been sure if MegaBigPower and ZoomHash had their facilities in Chelan or in Douglas (MBG might be a mix of both).
 Toomin and Columbia Basin are both in Grant (both are big enough to qualify for "big business" or "industrial" rates).
 I forget who else among the "bigger" fish are in the area and still in operation for mining.

 Microsoft, Yahoo, Dell are all in Quincy in Grant country (there's at least one other "GIANT" server farm there but I'm don't remember offhand who owns it, plus some smaller ones owned by Intuit and Sabey).