why no crash ?

[600watt]

april 2013:

bitcoin is skyrocketing, the community can hardly breath due to self confidence, price goes to the moon, hype is all around, nothing can stop us, tomorrow we own the world, but then...

due to "success" mtgox server fails, that´s all it takes:

= panic all around, panic sell, C R A S H



may 2013:

bitcoin is very volatile, a lot of people think it will be like in 2011 and go down, the community has no confidence, no hype, is bitcoin dead?, but then...

the us government starts seizing mtgox accounts = attack.

= panic all around, but NO crash


what am i missing here? logic?

[Kluge]

The market runs on rainbows, sunshine, and pixie dust because Bitcoin.

[nobbynobbynoob]

Markets aren't rational.

Also consider that the present market may just be more fragile at trading prices above about, say, $150.

[BitChick]

I am by no means an expert, but I think the problems with BTC have been countered with some of the positive press that is out there right now too.  We have Gyft that has made BTC easier to use (so we can't use Dwolla on Mt.Gox anymore?  We can all get gift cards if we want. or just use a different exchange)  Also, there is millions of dollars being pour in by VCs.  This can only help BTC gain more traction.  As concerned as I think I should feel about the problems, I am still bullish and holding on through these little waves.

[Streets 2.0]

It is interesting to think about when you put it in these terms.  I think our confidence is at all time highs because of the recoveries seen after the "bubble" and correction, and now the attack on MtGox US arm along with the lawsuit between Coinlab and MtGox which really didnt affect the value much if at all.  Good news just seems to be outweighing the bad these days.

[yokosan]

Two reasons:

1. The people that weren't going to stick around have now gone. Bitcoins are in stronger hands than when there is a mass influx of new people which is to be expected.

2. A lot of people that sold are waiting on the sidelines with fiat for a drop in price. They are the people that caused the drop and they no longer have BTC to sell.

The question is how long this will last? The answer is 2-3 months give or take some major event such as gox going down or facebook adopting bitcoin.

[BitChick]

Markets aren't rational.

Also consider that the present market may just be more fragile at trading prices above about, say, $150.

Interesting.  I agree.  I think we are still towards the bottom of the "Crash."  There is enough people that want BTC that the price really will not go down much more because demand outweighs supply, even with bad press.  If the price was at $266 yesterday we might be down to $115 today?  I am not sure but it is a thought.

[ElectricMucus]

There are two things to consider here:

-) Negative feedback due to the difficulty of getting USD out of mtgox: People choose to buy BTC and withdraw them/move them to another exchange.
-) "Now more than ever" attitude of the True Believers: There is a limited amount of people actually buying more coins as long as the price doesn't crash into oblivion. alas: "The feds think they can stop us, HURR DURR, BUY BUY BUY!"

[massivebitman]

I am also horrified that sent the price through the floor.

This is the US government going on the warpath against bitcoin.

The biggest threat the currency has had... Ever.

If US decides bitcoins is a threat they'll be worthless overnight.

How could this current action not cause the price to dip to double digits???

[Quantum_Negatum]

The bots are in control.

[Streets 2.0]

-) "Now more than ever" attitude of the True Believers: There is a limited amount of people actually buying more coins as long as the price doesn't crash into oblivion. alas: "The feds think they can stop us, HURR DURR, BUY BUY BUY!"

This is sentiment I agree with as well.  Before April I was buying BTC in small quantities, and since the press has increased tenfold, and the latest breed of confidence showing amongst the "true believers" as you put it, I am converting about 1k a week into BTC.  Attitudes are changing so it feels, and I know there are plenty others out there on this train.

[warpio]

My reasoning:

April: jeez it's gone up this much and hasn't crashed yet? I'd better start cashing out now while I can.

May: hmm, it wasn't that long ago since the last crash, I feel safe holding onto my coins for now, better than cashing out and paying a bunch of taxes/fees, and risk missing the next rocket.

[massivebitman]

Fucking hell.. this is craazy

Do I dare place another buy order??

At a loss???

wtf, somebody panic already.

[Streets 2.0]

I am also horrified that sent the price through the floor.

This is the US government going on the warpath against bitcoin.

The biggest threat the currency has had... Ever.

If US decides bitcoins is a threat they'll be worthless overnight.

How could this current action not cause the price to dip to double digits???

I feel differently, the US attacking Bitcoin the way that they are is only going to make Bitcoin stronger in the long run.  Its the fledgling attempts of a dragon on its last breath, this is a marathon not a sprint.

[NamelessOne]

I am also horrified that sent the price through the floor.

This is the US government going on the warpath against bitcoin.

The biggest threat the currency has had... Ever.

If US decides bitcoins is a threat they'll be worthless overnight.

How could this current action not cause the price to dip to double digits???

I feel differently, the US attacking Bitcoin the way that they are is only going to make Bitcoin stronger in the long run.  Its the fledgling attempts of a dragon on its last breath, this is a marathon not a sprint.

The USA is currently not attacking bitcoin. They are attacking a single bank account holder that broke their laws.

[nicolazza]

people realized that mtgox is not bitcoin, its only a bad service that probably will die soon, and we'll have some other beautiful and functional (maybe decentralized) exchangers

[fitty]

MtGox being incompetent isn't news.

The US isn't going after Bitcoin. CampBX is also using Dwolla (the same way MtGox was) and they're fine. They were setup properly.

Bitcoin was never mentioned. They were exchanging "something" (cryptocurrency) for USD. Which they were not allowed to do. They were accepting huge amounts of money, and sending out huge amounts of money, but somehow claimed they were not a "money services" company. The DHS disagreed.

So MtGox are morons. They opened a company in the USA improperly, used it improperly, got in trouble. Numerous other companies in the USA are setup properly, and still use Dwolla / Bitcoins.

Gox fail, nothing more, nothing less. The domain is fine, the servers are fine, the bank accounts in Japan are fine. Their company in the USA was slapped down because of their own incompetence, it's not that big of a deal.

[Streets 2.0]

I am also horrified that sent the price through the floor.

This is the US government going on the warpath against bitcoin.

The biggest threat the currency has had... Ever.

If US decides bitcoins is a threat they'll be worthless overnight.

How could this current action not cause the price to dip to double digits???

I feel differently, the US attacking Bitcoin the way that they are is only going to make Bitcoin stronger in the long run.  Its the fledgling attempts of a dragon on its last breath, this is a marathon not a sprint.

The USA is currently not attacking bitcoin. They are attacking a single bank account holder that broke their laws.

I guess this is where we are still in a wait and see mode.  The US govt. seeks to control all and smash anything threatening its ability to dominate economically.  Just look at the last 15 years as a small sample.  Yes they have not begun targeting CampBX and exchanges directly, but I do feel this is their first step in attempting to halt or disrupt Bitcoin.  This though, is getting slightly off topic and discussing politics here never produces a winner.

[darkmule]

I am also horrified that sent the price through the floor.

This is the US government going on the warpath against bitcoin.

Not really.  They're going on the warpath against companies who think they can just refuse to register as a money transmitter despite transmitting money.

I'd only conclude it was BTC in particular they were after if they got their pound of flesh from Coinbase and other currently unlicensed money transmitters and still continued to go after them. 

[fitty]

I guess this is where we are still in a wait and see mode.  The US govt. seeks to control all and smash anything threatening its ability to dominate economically.  Just look at the last 15 years as a small sample.  Yes they have not begun targeting CampBX and exchanges directly, but I do feel this is their first step in attempting to halt or disrupt Bitcoin.  This though, is getting slightly off topic and discussing politics here never produces a winner.

The DOJ doesn't do this stuff by piecemeal. They didn't shut down Megaupload.com one day. Freeze the banks another day. Arrest him another day. It happened all at once.

MtGox is on a .com, they could seize that anytime they want. Japan is more buddy buddy with the USA then New Zealand is. If they wanted to go after Bitcoin, every Bitcoin .com would be gone. CampBX would be gone. Bitpay, BitInstant, would be shut down, banks seized. They've both American companies.

The DOJ isn't after Bitcoin. It doesn't even make sense to go after them. Cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The genie is out of the bottle. They're better off tracking Bitcoin, keeping tabs on it, then pushing it further underground. Bitcoin isn't a threat to the USD. People are dreaming if they think it is. The DOJ will cut a deal with MtGox, let us have access to all the logs (website and transactions) and we'll leave you alone. Considering MtGox is telling people it will cost 25M to become legit in the USA (and they're planning to do it), they'll play very nice with the DOJ going forward.

This whole event was actually good news. People leaving MtGox for other exchanges. The sooner that happens, the better.