Political battle over bitcoin

[massivebitman]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/15/the-coming-political-battle-over-bitcoin/

I think it's almost guaranteed that bitcoin will become a political battle soon.

If Gox gets shut down the price will almost certainly drop below to perhaps to the 10-30 range, but if it doesn't I think the price could climb from all the press and the broader adoption by the non-conformist segments of society.

What do you guys think?

[fitty]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/15/the-coming-political-battle-over-bitcoin/

I think it's almost guaranteed that bitcoin will become a political battle soon.

If Gox gets shut down the price will almost certainly drop below to perhaps to the 10-30 range, but if it doesn't I think the price could climb from all the press and the broader adoption by the non-conformist segments of society.

What do you guys think?

If the DOJ wanted to shut them down, they would. MtGox is on a .com. They can close those down anytime they want.

They wouldn't just shut down their US Dwolla account. MtGox now has time to move off a .com, move servers, move money. That's not how the DOJ works. They don't do warnings. They ass blast you all at once.

Bitcoin businesses are getting more investors. That means more money. That means more lawyers. Cryptocurrencies are here to stay, the genie is out of the bottle. The DOJ will quickly realize they're better off if Bitcoin is the main currency and they can keep tabs on it. Push it further underground and it's just harder to track.

[BitcoinAshley]

[...]
If Gox gets shut down the price will almost certainly drop below to perhaps to the 10-30 range [...]

Bullshit.
Mt.Gox dying a slow, painful death at the hands of U.S. and Japanese regulators would be the best possible thing that could happen to Bitcoin at this point in time.
New exchanges and related services are popping up left and right.
All that would happen is a transfer of volume from Gox to elsewhere.

The government/TPTB are going to keep shutting down exchanges, and if you think this will drive bitcoin prices down, please sell all your coins now and get out because your market position is incongruent with your [incorrect] opinion regarding how government intervention/regulation affects prices. 

The only reason e-Gold could be shut down was because it was centralized and thus had a single point of failure. When was the last time the government successfully stopped torrent downloads, or drove the price of drugs down because of intervention, despite sketchy OTC availability situations? Gox is not a single point of failure, it's a poorly performing exchange that is only used because of its liquidity, which is a chicken/egg argument. Gox hurts bitcoin. Some people are stupid and need a "kick in the butt" to start using a different exchange, or they somehow believe that Gox will clean up their act after being given a million chances to do so. So regulators skewering Gox will give these folks the shove they need...

[fitty]

[...]
If Gox gets shut down the price will almost certainly drop below to perhaps to the 10-30 range [...]

Bullshit.
Mt.Gox dying a slow, painful death at the hands of U.S. and Japanese regulators would be the best possible thing that could happen to Bitcoin at this point in time.
New exchanges and related services are popping up left and right.
All that would happen is a transfer of volume from Gox to elsewhere.

The government/TPTB are going to keep shutting down exchanges, and if you think this will drive bitcoin prices down, please sell all your coins now and get out because your market position is incongruent with your [incorrect] opinion regarding how government intervention/regulation affects prices.

+0.05 

[BTC Books]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/15/the-coming-political-battle-over-bitcoin/

I think it's almost guaranteed that bitcoin will become a political battle soon.

If Gox gets shut down the price will almost certainly drop below to perhaps to the 10-30 range, but if it doesn't I think the price could climb from all the press and the broader adoption by the non-conformist segments of society.

What do you guys think?

If, by 'political battle', you mean right wing/left wing, then no.  Neither end of the political spectrum will accept bitcoin - they won't even wait to see what the other side will do so they can take the opposite position.  Yay.  Political agreement.  Whoopee-do.

OTOH, if you mean the 1% vs. the rest of us, that is pretty much guaranteed.

Your price call is just silly.  Either 10-30 or it'll go up?  You have no idea.  Just admit it... 

[BitPirate]

Mind you, the fact that the washington post sees fit to speculate about our formerly-niche currency, and frame the speculation in terms of "political battle", just shows how far we've come. I remember when the price would jump due to any mainstream mention -- now we're a mainstay.

It's almost getting to the point that "any Bitcoin news is mainstream news". That's pretty cool.

[glendall]

My bet is that within the next year or two, it'll be China that'll save BTC.

The US gov' has a great deal to fear in seeing BTC become successful, and will probably try to disrupt BTC.

But the Chinese 'communist party' would love any avenue to take besides holding massive quantities of USD, and in doing so, being subject to the ridiculous amount of manipulation that USD is subject to. I could see the Chinese elite (basically the richest folks run the gov', even more so than most countries) investing in BTC as a counter to worldwide American currency dominance.

If both governments become hostile to BTC, than I think BTC will survive fine as a currency primary for money laundering and black market exchange, but it will not reach anywhere near its current potential.

[jinni]

The problem for the US gov't is that if it decides to pursue Bitcoin, then China and other countries will pick up the buck and take leadership.

There are probably some politicians in Washington and the White house that are aware of the strategic risk of not pursuing Bitcoin.

One can label it as a terrorist, money laundering, child pornographist and drug trading currency - but that won't stop it's widespread use.

Logically the US gov't has no choice but to embrace Bitcoin and make sure that the US becomes a centre of Bitcoin economic activity. But, it has been a long time since US politicians have acted in the long term self interest of their country, so I guess we can only expect more self-denial. Having lost their economical independence, the US cannot militarily dominate the world because they cannot afford to.

As always, the logic is clear but what remains is for people to grasp it. I expect the longest political battle for Bitcoin, just like it was with the fiscal cliff (that hasn't been averted).

[ThatDGuy]

There are probably some politicians in Washington and the White house that are aware of the strategic risk of not pursuing Bitcoin.

I think this will be hugely important - how many are aware of that risk and how well they adapt to it.

[Hawker]

My bet is that within the next year or two, it'll be China that'll save BTC.

...snip...

China doesn't allow the Yuan to be converted freely so it has more to lose from Bitcoin than most.

[BTC Books]

My bet is that within the next year or two, it'll be China that'll save BTC.

...snip...

China doesn't allow the Yuan to be converted freely so it has more to lose from Bitcoin than most.

Yes.

Actually, now and into the future I see Russia (and environs) as the rock of bitcoin.  The rest of the western world (I include Russia in that - argue away...) is banked by the US and the UK - and will pretty much follow as they are led in this regard.  Even Germany doesn't have the muscle to get their own gold out of the vaults in the US:  they're not going to make a fuss about whatever final decision on bitcoin is reached by the US & UK.

Russia will do as seems strategically, tactically and internally good for themselves.  They're quite good at that.  Better than the US, certainly.