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Author Topic: New video: Why the blocksize limit keeps Bitcoin free and decentralized  (Read 15202 times)
tvbcof
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May 28, 2013, 08:45:40 AM
 #41


I just did a quick calc and if 1/2 the people in the world did 1 transaction per day with a single solution, I get around 50,000 operations per second.

Someone at the conference (I heard, but did not see) mentioned that the number of cell phones vs. the number of bank accounts is about 5/1.  So, if Bitcoin became popular, and the movement toward more capable phones proceeds, it would likely result in a pretty large deluge of traffic.

I became concerned about scalability when reading the document on the main Bitcoin.org wiki.  Later (recently) I heard Dan Kaminsky refer to it as "the funniest document in the history of software engineering."  Which I consider one of the funniest comments in the history of software engineering.  And one of the saddest.

Now, I don't doubt that large corporations (who I can now name but will refrain from doing so anyway) can process that kind of data and much more.  And the intelligence information they could obtain in doing so would vastly exceed the cost of operating the system.  But it's not the Bitcoin which attracted me several years ago.  It is, in fact, the exact opposite.


It seems like you got a bit distracted while explaining your estimate of the operating cost...

If I already had the backbone network, hardware, and certain proprietary technology, I think such a system would be a few $10M's to develop and maybe $10M per year to operate in conjunction with other services.  Plus legal and regulatory costs which could dwarf the technical ones.  Chump-change for a corporation who was positioned to leverage the solution's underlying value.  Starting from scratch, much more than that of course.  I'll bet that VISA has much much more into their system, but they started from a different time and have a tougher row to hoe.  Probably.  Wild guesses to be honest.


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d'aniel
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May 28, 2013, 08:51:40 AM
Last edit: May 28, 2013, 09:26:41 AM by d'aniel
 #42

If I already had the backbone network, hardware, and certain proprietary technology, I think such a system would be a few $10M's to develop and maybe $10M per year to operate in conjunction with other services.  Plus legal and regulatory costs which could dwarf the technical ones.  Chump-change for a corporation who was positioned to leverage the solution's underlying value.  Starting from scratch, much more than that of course.  I'll bet that VISA has much much more into their system, but they started from a different time and have a tougher row to hoe.  Probably.  Wild guesses to be honest.
I'm interested in following how you arrived at these numbers.  E.g. what are your monthly CPU, RAM, and bandwidth costs to process, say VISA levels of traffic.  We can worry about legal costs after we figure out the technical ones.

Edit: I just noticed the last sentence where you admitted your numbers to be wild guesses.  Why are you making such bold claims based on admitted wild guesses?  This is a pretty important issue, after all.
d'aniel
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May 28, 2013, 09:06:05 AM
 #43

Quote from: tvbcof
It leaves a solution where my 'savings' are widely distributed all over the world on a system which is trustable because it is tight enough to be operated by a myriad of small players and enthusiasts.  (That would be Bitcoin.)

Your savings would be locked in a p2p network that can't be withdrawn from without a $20 transaction fee.
The blockchain would also appear to me in this case to be relatively easily jammed.  What I mean is, say $20 is the upper limit on what people are willing to pay to transact over the blockchain.  With a 1MB block size limit, that's roughly 2000 transactions per block, or 288,000 transactions per day.  So it would cost roughly $5.76M to jam the blockchain for a day.  How many days could Bitcoin withstand such an attack before confidence is lost?  Also keep in mind that this number is fixed with the block size, so this can quickly become a cheap attack relative to the benefit of its success as the number of Bitcoin users grows.

Edit: In fact, I'm betting even just a credible threat to do this at random times would suffice to make Bitcoin appear too unreliable to more than a few businesses.
tvbcof
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May 28, 2013, 09:22:39 AM
 #44

Quote from: tvbcof
It leaves a solution where my 'savings' are widely distributed all over the world on a system which is trustable because it is tight enough to be operated by a myriad of small players and enthusiasts.  (That would be Bitcoin.)

Your savings would be locked in a p2p network that can't be withdrawn from without a $20 transaction fee. They would be safe from governments but not from competition that threatens to take over BTC's role as currency used for trade because of a myriad of reasons: lower transaction fees, status as 'coin of the realm' of a country in the case of fiat currencies, more merchants accepting the currency, etc.

$20/transaction would be worth every penny to me for a system I could trust.  I pay more and get a lot less for bank wires.

It would also produce about $80,000 revenue for finding a block which should be sufficient to keep a _LOT_ of people in the game if they could do so with inexpensive gear that they could afford to lose.  That is the kind of network I could trust (unlike Cyprus's banking system, for example.)

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I would distribute out my spending money to various off-chain solutions which seemed the most promising to me.  Some might be attacked successfully and buried, and I might mis-judge some and they might rip me off.  Even if all of them failed, I would still have the bulk of my value in BTC.  I would probably only make several Bitcoin transactions per year.

This is just my opinion, but I think the vast majority of people would prefer a fully automated p2p network that's made up of thousands of nodes operated by enterprises, than a fully automated p2p network with hundreds of thousands of nodes operated by hobbyists, but with the disadvantage that you need to trust third party payment processors for any kind of real world use of currency.

I guess we'll see.  Right now I can and do trust a de-centralized bunch of commoners with GPU's poking out of milk crates with more value than I trust to Wells Fargo.  And for specific and distinct reasons.  The ad-hoc nature of the Bitcoin network does not bother me in the least.  Quite the opposite.  I consider it a great strength (in conjunction with the redundant nature of the design of the system of course.)

BTW, we do have a 'fully automated p2p solution'.  It's called the modern banking system.  The peers are the banks.  The clients are the plastic wielding public.  I fail to see much difference in a system you seem to envision where your vaunted 'enterprises' are the peers and the SPV users are the clients.  You think any 'enterprise' is going to stand up to the regulators or walk away from their investment?  Dream on.

If we're going to use proprietary networks (and they have to be networks to avoid expensive on-chain transactions) to transfer bitcoin credit, instead of bitcoin itself around, we can just use banks, or some successor to e-gold or something.

A bitcoin economy where you are reliant on using bitcoin-credit controlled by third parties is very similar to modern banking, and would probably have almost all of the same shortcomings.

Not hardly.  I see the off-chain solutions as being every bit as ad-hoc as the transfer nodes and miners (if need be.)  Every time one gets a mallet on the head, three more pop up out of a gopher-hole somewhere else in the world.  That, my friend, is resilience.

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This contrasts sharply with the vision of Bitcoin as a monolithic one-world currency solution which only large and well connected entities can profitably operate.  In that case a failure means the loss of all of my value*.

Your vision requires large payment processors that are connected, in the classical banking sense of having trust-based credit relationships amongst each other, to form a proprietary network that allows you to actually use bitcoin in every day trade.

You simply could not be more wrong about this.

Bitcoin as a global scale network allowing millions of on-chain transactions per day, or as you put it, a 'monolithic one-world currency solution', was in fact the goal Satoshi Nakamoto set out for it:

http://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg09964.html

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At first, most users would run network nodes, but as the network grows beyond a certain point, it would be left more and more to specialists with server farms of specialized hardware.  A server farm would only need to have one node on the network and the rest of the LAN connects with that one node.

The bandwidth might not be as prohibitive as you think.  A typical transaction would be about 400 bytes (ECC is nicely compact).  Each transaction has to be broadcast twice, so lets say 1KB per transaction.  Visa processed 37 billion transactions in FY2008, or an average of 100 million transactions per day.  That many transactions would take 100GB of bandwidth, or the size of 12 DVD or 2 HD quality movies, or about $18 worth of bandwidth at current prices.

If the network were to get that big, it would take several years, and by then, sending 2 HD movies over the Internet would probably not seem like a big deal.  

Limiting Bitcoin to 7 tps in my opinion virtually guarantees it will never have significant impact, because I believe people will opt for government-regulated networks, or alternative blockchains, if Bitcoin, as a p2p network loses its transaction fee advantage.

The 1 MB cap was put in place as a temporary measure, until a better way to control transaction spam was found. Trying to make the limit permanent is trying to change the vision of Bitcoin as originally conceived.

Well, he/they also have some half-baked privacy and internal auction stuff floating around in the code.  It's not like the guy was Jesus or something.  Ultimately the user's will decide although the actual developers will have a big influence in assisting those decisions.


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May 28, 2013, 09:32:01 AM
 #45

$20/transaction would be worth every penny to me for a system I could trust.  I pay more and get a lot less for bank wires.

It would also produce about $80,000 revenue for finding a block which should be sufficient to keep a _LOT_ of people in the game if they could do so with inexpensive gear that they could afford to lose.  That is the kind of network I could trust (unlike Cyprus's banking system, for example.)
Where do you live? In Europe you can use SEPA transfer across borders for just 1 euro (money next day). In my country I can get transfers between banks within country for free (money same/next day) or instant for 1 euro. How $20/tx bitcoin is going to compete with that? It's fantasy.


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tvbcof
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May 28, 2013, 09:53:21 AM
 #46

If I already had the backbone network, hardware, and certain proprietary technology, I think such a system would be a few $10M's to develop and maybe $10M per year to operate in conjunction with other services.  Plus legal and regulatory costs which could dwarf the technical ones.  Chump-change for a corporation who was positioned to leverage the solution's underlying value.  Starting from scratch, much more than that of course.  I'll bet that VISA has much much more into their system, but they started from a different time and have a tougher row to hoe.  Probably.  Wild guesses to be honest.
I'm interested in following how you arrived at these numbers.  E.g. what are your monthly CPU, RAM, and bandwidth costs to process, say VISA levels of traffic.  We can worry about legal costs after we figure out the technical ones.

Edit: I just noticed the last sentence where you admitted your numbers to be wild guesses.  Why are you making such bold claims based on admitted wild guesses?  This is a pretty important issue, after all.

Fast-tracked, one might get the system going in a year.

15 primary engineers,$300k/year = $4-5M
30 secondary engineers, pm, marketing, etc = $7-8M
Dev/test infrastructure, $3M

Throw in a 2x safety factor and we're getting close.

For ongoing operations one will need not only their own backbone (if they have one) but an expanded presence near the edge (particularly if there is competition.)  So that factors in.  Probably it would not be possible to do without support for a monetary system, so $10M might actually be a low-ball.

And I've left out legal in both efforts (and lobbying) which will add significantly.


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May 28, 2013, 09:58:50 AM
 #47

$20/transaction would be worth every penny to me for a system I could trust.  I pay more and get a lot less for bank wires.

It would also produce about $80,000 revenue for finding a block which should be sufficient to keep a _LOT_ of people in the game if they could do so with inexpensive gear that they could afford to lose.  That is the kind of network I could trust (unlike Cyprus's banking system, for example.)
Where do you live? In Europe you can use SEPA transfer across borders for just 1 euro (money next day). In my country I can get transfers between banks within country for free (money same/next day) or instant for 1 euro. How $20/tx bitcoin is going to compete with that? It's fantasy.

I paid $25 to get money to Tradehill when I was buying BTC.  And it took days sometimes for the transfer to go through.

Like I mentioned, I would go to my reserve like I go to my safe deposit box.  Irregularly.  So if I am paying less than $100/yr for something with the convenience of sub 1-hr transfers and the robustness of physical gold, that's and absolute fucking gift to me.


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May 28, 2013, 10:02:50 AM
 #48

Fast-tracked, one might get the system going in a year.

15 primary engineers,$300k/year = $4-5M
30 secondary engineers, pm, marketing, etc = $7-8M
Dev/test infrastructure, $3M

Throw in a 2x safety factor and we're getting close.

For ongoing operations one will need not only their own backbone (if they have one) but an expanded presence near the edge (particularly if there is competition.)  So that factors in.  Probably it would not be possible to do without support for a monetary system, so $10M might actually be a low-ball.

And I've left out legal in both efforts (and lobbying) which will add significantly.


Lol, clearly I'm being trolled.  Nicely done Tongue
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May 28, 2013, 10:13:13 AM
 #49

I paid $25 to get money to Tradehill when I was buying BTC.  And it took days sometimes for the transfer to go through.

Like I mentioned, I would go to my reserve like I go to my safe deposit box.  Irregularly.  So if I am paying less than $100/yr for something with the convenience of sub 1-hr transfers and the robustness of physical gold, that's and absolute fucking gift to me.

If bitcoin could be only useful for safe deposit it will not be used at all and have no value.


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tvbcof
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May 28, 2013, 10:14:30 AM
 #50

I paid $25 to get money to Tradehill when I was buying BTC.  And it took days sometimes for the transfer to go through.

Like I mentioned, I would go to my reserve like I go to my safe deposit box.  Irregularly.  So if I am paying less than $100/yr for something with the convenience of sub 1-hr transfers and the robustness of physical gold, that's and absolute fucking gift to me.

If bitcoin could be only useful for safe deposit it will not be used at all and have no value.

Oh, you mean like gold?


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May 28, 2013, 10:42:44 AM
 #51

Oh, you mean like gold?
Not like gold. Bitcoin doesn't have value other than being good transaction system while gold does.
Moreover bitcoin security is directly proportional to miners revenue and revenue is proportional to transaction volume (after subsidy ends) so you cannot store to much value in it in relation to transaction volume.


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May 28, 2013, 10:44:40 AM
Last edit: May 28, 2013, 10:55:54 AM by amincd
 #52

$20/transaction would be worth every penny to me for a system I could trust.  I pay more and get a lot less for bank wires.

But would it be worth it for the rest of the world? Again, just my opinion, but I think losing the ability to make a global transaction, that every other node in the world accepts, with transaction fees of 1 cent, would be more costly in terms of loss of Bitcoin's appeal to the average person than losing the ability to run a full node on an average PC.

Quote
It would also produce about $80,000 revenue for finding a block which should be sufficient to keep a _LOT_ of people in the game if they could do so with inexpensive gear that they could afford to lose.

I agree that block rewards are important, but there can be other ways of ensuring there are a lot of transaction fees other than having a 1 MB block size limit.

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I guess we'll see.  Right now I can and do trust a de-centralized bunch of commoners with GPU's poking out of milk crates with more value than I trust to Wells Fargo.

Fair enough. I personally am willing to see Bitcoin lose some of its ad-hocness in exchange for being able to use it any where in the world, which I think becomes much less likely if transactions are limited to 7 per second.

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BTW, we do have a 'fully automated p2p solution'.  It's called the modern banking system.  The peers are the banks.  The clients are the plastic wielding public.  I fail to see much difference in a system you seem to envision where your vaunted 'enterprises' are the peers and the SPV users are the clients.  You think any 'enterprise' is going to stand up to the regulators or walk away from their investment?  Dream on.


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I see the off-chain solutions as being every bit as ad-hoc as the transfer nodes and miners (if need be.)  Every time one gets a mallet on the head, three more pop up out of a gopher-hole somewhere else in the world.  That, my friend, is resilience.

To explain why I think relying on third party payment processors is what would end up making the BTC-economy look like the modern banking system, and why I think it would be very un-adhoc-like if these third party payment processors were to handle global-scale transaction volume, I'll explain how I imagine it will work:

You have a merchant who wants to accept BTC payments. He can't accept them through the Bitcoin network, because transaction fees are $20, so he needs a payment processor. This isn't a removed payment processor like BitPay that simply receives BTC payments from customers and converts it to fiat for the merchant the same day.

The payment processor would need to accept BTC-credit from a customer, and then hold it in an account on behalf of the merchant or sell it to a party that would be willing to buy that BTC-credit, and deposit fiat in the merchant's bank account.

Accepting BTC-credit is not a simple thing. It means having to be able to trust the BTC-bank that the customer has BTC-credit with. The payment processor won't just trust any fly-by-night BTC-bank, since it hasn't proven itself trustworthy.

More likely, there will be a network of trusted BTC-banks, that have trust-based relationships with each other, and use a centralized clearing house, like modern banks do, to settle their debts at the end of each day with on-chain transactions.

Parties who can't join this centralized clearing house, because of their size, or regulations, or any number of reasons that people are currently locked out of the modern banking system, are effectively locked out of the BTC-economy.

Merchants can't accept their credit, because the payment processor they use doesn't accept the credit of any BTC-bank that doesn't participate in the same payment clearing network as them.

The competitive advantage of the parties that have large user bases, or are members of networks with a large number of members, would be too great for outside competitors to overcome, leading to a very centralized and static BTC-economy. It would be just like Visa/Mastercard, or the bank payment systems, like CHIPS.

Regarding the current banking system being a "fully automated p2p solution", this is not true at all. The current banking system is based on contractual relationships that require trust and regulatory access. A fully automated p2p solution has no contracts and every thing is done through protocol.

If a node in a p2p network goes down, no one loses their money, because it's a distributed p2p network where there are thousands of other nodes that store the same information. They communicate through the internet, and form a global network. Setting up a node is only a technical process, with no trust-based relationships required. As long as you have the bandwidth and hard drive space, you are equal in standing to every other node.

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Well, he/they also have some half-baked privacy and internal auction stuff floating around in the code.  It's not like the guy was Jesus or something.  Ultimately the user's will decide although the actual developers will have a big influence in assisting those decisions.

True enough. We should not assume Nakamoto was omniscient, and we should be able to change plans that he put in place.

I'm bringing this up though because we're talking about the vision for Bitcoin, since you said removing the 1 MB block size would go against your vision for Bitcoin. I think if we're going to have to decide between which vision to accept, those who want to keep the original vision start out with a stronger say than those who want to change it. Making what was planned to be a temporary block size limit into a permanent one should only be accepted if there is a strong consensus for it, not the other way around.

Quote from: d'aniel
The blockchain would also appear to me in this case to be relatively easily jammed.  What I mean is, say $20 is the upper limit on what people are willing to pay to transact over the blockchain.  With a 1MB block size limit, that's roughly 2000 transactions per block, or 288,000 transactions per day.  So it would cost roughly $5.76M to jam the blockchain for a day.  How many days could Bitcoin withstand such an attack before confidence is lost?  Also keep in mind that this number is fixed with the block size, so this can quickly become a cheap attack relative to the benefit of its success as the number of Bitcoin users grows.

Very good point.
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May 28, 2013, 10:49:46 AM
 #53

Bitcoin can't really drop block size limit. If it does you can easily dos blockchain by mining extremely large block with lots of small bogus transactions. How about 1 GB block or more? If miner succeeds network must transfer it and keep his work in blockchain forever. Minimum fees won't really work because miner will collect all fees from his block anyway.


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d'aniel
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May 28, 2013, 11:02:39 AM
 #54

Bitcoin can't really drop block size limit. If it does you can easily dos blockchain by mining extremely large block with lots of small bogus transactions. How about 1 GB block or more? If miner succeeds network must transfer it and keep his work in blockchain forever. Minimum fees won't really work because miner will collect all fees from his block anyway.
Miners can prevent these kinds of attacks with soft limits, i.e. collectively refusing to build upon blocks that are "too large".
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May 28, 2013, 11:40:12 AM
 #55

Bitcoin can't really drop block size limit. If it does you can easily dos blockchain by mining extremely large block with lots of small bogus transactions. How about 1 GB block or more? If miner succeeds network must transfer it and keep his work in blockchain forever. Minimum fees won't really work because miner will collect all fees from his block anyway.
Miners can prevent these kinds of attacks with soft limits, i.e. collectively refusing to build upon blocks that are "too large".
We either drop max size and then such block is valid or don't drop it so every miner refuses to accept such blocks. Can't have both.


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May 28, 2013, 05:58:20 PM
 #56

Oh, you mean like gold?
Not like gold. Bitcoin doesn't have value other than being good transaction system while gold does.
Moreover bitcoin security is directly proportional to miners revenue and revenue is proportional to transaction volume (after subsidy ends) so you cannot store to much value in it in relation to transaction volume.

Gold has about the same usefulness to people as does lead.  Yet it has a vastly higher value.  Why?  Because people have confidence in it.  It is distinctly NOT because it is good for transactions and it is very rarely used for doing so these days.

And Bitcoin is actually kind of a crappy transactional currency IMO.  It's got a lot of latency, some real questions about scalability, and some enormous privacy issues.  I'm almost certain that we'll be seeing solutions which eclipse Bitcoin in term of ability to support exchange functions for low-value transactions.  If that is the niche which Bitcoin targets I have very limited confidence that it will ultimately be competitive in that role.


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May 28, 2013, 05:59:03 PM
 #57

Bitcoin can't really drop block size limit. If it does you can easily dos blockchain by mining extremely large block with lots of small bogus transactions. How about 1 GB block or more? If miner succeeds network must transfer it and keep his work in blockchain forever. Minimum fees won't really work because miner will collect all fees from his block anyway.
Miners can prevent these kinds of attacks with soft limits, i.e. collectively refusing to build upon blocks that are "too large".
We either drop max size and then such block is valid or don't drop it so every miner refuses to accept such blocks. Can't have both.
I think you're misunderstanding the difference between the current hard limit, and the proposed soft limit.  A hard limit is where every node, mining or not, rejects a block for being oversized.  A soft limit is where miners converge on an appropriate limit amongst themselves, and non-mining nodes are fine with it being broken.  A soft limit is relatively easily changed, only requiring a large fraction of miners be on board, but a hard limit requires the entire network to switch in unison.  Much more difficult.
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May 28, 2013, 06:37:19 PM
 #58

I think you're misunderstanding the difference between the current hard limit, and the proposed soft limit.  A hard limit is where every node, mining or not, rejects a block for being oversized.  A soft limit is where miners converge on an appropriate limit amongst themselves, and non-mining nodes are fine with it being broken.  A soft limit is relatively easily changed, only requiring a large fraction of miners be on board, but a hard limit requires the entire network to switch in unison.  Much more difficult.
I don't think such consensus will be reached. Any rational miner would want to extend previous block, even if bigger than soft limit, because clients already accepted it and by mining it he gets less probability of being orphaned. And rouge miner could event put some bribe in his block to further encourage to mine on it.


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May 28, 2013, 07:08:59 PM
 #59


I see the off-chain solutions as being every bit as ad-hoc as the transfer nodes and miners (if need be.)  Every time one gets a mallet on the head, three more pop up out of a gopher-hole somewhere else in the world.  That, my friend, is resilience.

To explain why I think relying on third party payment processors is what would end up making the BTC-economy look like the modern banking system, and why I think it would be very un-adhoc-like if these third party payment processors were to handle global-scale transaction volume, I'll explain how I imagine it will work:

You have a merchant who wants to accept BTC payments. He can't accept them through the Bitcoin network, because transaction fees are $20, so he needs a payment processor. This isn't a removed payment processor like BitPay that simply receives BTC payments from customers and converts it to fiat for the merchant the same day.

The payment processor would need to accept BTC-credit from a customer, and then hold it in an account on behalf of the merchant or sell it to a party that would be willing to buy that BTC-credit, and deposit fiat in the merchant's bank account.

Accepting BTC-credit is not a simple thing. It means having to be able to trust the BTC-bank that the customer has BTC-credit with. The payment processor won't just trust any fly-by-night BTC-bank, since it hasn't proven itself trustworthy.

More likely, there will be a network of trusted BTC-banks, that have trust-based relationships with each other, and use a centralized clearing house, like modern banks do, to settle their debts at the end of each day with on-chain transactions.

Parties who can't join this centralized clearing house, because of their size, or regulations, or any number of reasons that people are currently locked out of the modern banking system, are effectively locked out of the BTC-economy.

Merchants can't accept their credit, because the payment processor they use doesn't accept the credit of any BTC-bank that doesn't participate in the same payment clearing network as them.

The competitive advantage of the parties that have large user bases, or are members of networks with a large number of members, would be too great for outside competitors to overcome, leading to a very centralized and static BTC-economy. It would be just like Visa/Mastercard, or the bank payment systems, like CHIPS.

Regarding the current banking system being a "fully automated p2p solution", this is not true at all. The current banking system is based on contractual relationships that require trust and regulatory access. A fully automated p2p solution has no contracts and every thing is done through protocol.

If a node in a p2p network goes down, no one loses their money, because it's a distributed p2p network where there are thousands of other nodes that store the same information. They communicate through the internet, and form a global network. Setting up a node is only a technical process, with no trust-based relationships required. As long as you have the bandwidth and hard drive space, you are equal in standing to every other node.


I don't believe that things would play out as you imagine as long as the barrier to entry for being a payment processor is low (which, of course, facilitates both competition and the ability for a processor to take bigger risks as they have less to lose.)

The OP has a conception of payment processors being able to demonstrate proof of stake in backing store ownership.  I like this, but also things could work well with 'off chain' meaning being more completely de-coupled or trust-based.

I seem to have a little more confidence in the potential for crypto-currencies to de-couple themselves from fiat than do you.  In this case, the lubricity is high enough that exchanges can operate with very low overhead.

I actually have no huge problem with 'trust based' relationships at some levels in a system.  These tend to increase efficiency and work well for long enough durations that they are plenty useful for exchange functions.  Where they bother me is when I am thinking about a need for stored value decades out.

An off-chain processor who is more transparent and who devises mechanisms which preclude fraud and theft will be more competitive so I fully expect to see those who do the best job of this thrive and those who fail, perish.  And I expect that end-users will be able to make informed decisions about who to rely on here.

---

To me, Bitcoin is just the right size when off-chain processors can use it as a rock solid system for periodically squaring accounts, and most users can use it for a 'retirement' value store.

Bitcoin could have been designed better for this role, and could have had a life history which resulted in less cruft, but my read is that it is 'good enough' in this capacity and also that the 'being first' advantage may give it the power it needs to sustain.


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May 28, 2013, 07:25:12 PM
Last edit: May 30, 2013, 05:34:27 AM by d'aniel
 #60

I think you're misunderstanding the difference between the current hard limit, and the proposed soft limit.  A hard limit is where every node, mining or not, rejects a block for being oversized.  A soft limit is where miners converge on an appropriate limit amongst themselves, and non-mining nodes are fine with it being broken.  A soft limit is relatively easily changed, only requiring a large fraction of miners be on board, but a hard limit requires the entire network to switch in unison.  Much more difficult.
I don't think such consensus will be reached. Any rational miner would want to extend previous block, even if bigger than soft limit, because clients already accepted it and by mining it he gets less probability of being orphaned. And rouge miner could event put some bribe in his block to further encourage to mine on it.
Whether it's expected to be short-term profitable to enforce the soft limit, or try to break it depends on the fraction of total mining power enforcing the limit, the extra fees earned by breaking it, and the amount of external subsidies and which side these subsidies favor.  But the long-term interests of miners are also very important, and they clearly favor miners on the side of enforcing the soft limit in order to protect against bloat and to prevent any race to the bottom in fees, both of which lower future profitability.

So if the soft limit is set too low, then miners will have a strong short-term incentive to "break the cartel" in order to earn some extra money, and if it's too high, their longer-term interests will kick in in order to raise future profitability.  A balance would almost certainly be struck between these competing interests.
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