Japan. The Yen. The Hyperinflation.

[townf]

There are quite detailed statistics available for inflation, you can see by how far they miss or make their target. Look at either the CPI, RPI or GDP deflators.

Check this one out:
http://www.shadowstats.com/

Also the CPI is made by roughly doing things like comparing the price of a new york strip 10 years ago to the price of donkey meat today.

Use a different measure then such as the GDP deflator which is based on consumption patterns. Any measure of inflation you make will have its flaws but they are roughly accurate.

Official GDP is bogus too. They're all bogus.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2013/05/15/volcker-government-makes-up-35-of-gdp-mortgage-markets-are-now-a-state-subsidiary/
http://www.marketplace.org/topics/economy/us-economy-grow-3-under-new-gdp-calculation

[fredtrader]

Can never satisfy people that believes in conspiracies, no matter how many facts you give them.

[myrkul]

Can never satisfy people that believes in conspiracies, no matter how many facts you give them.

Where are you getting those "facts"?

[townf]

Can never satisfy people that believes in conspiracies, no matter how many facts you give them.

Are you saying Paul Volcker is a conspiracy theorist?

Ok then, this one is straight from the FED website:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&id=BOGNONBR&scale=Left&range=Max&cosd=1959-01-01&coed=2013-04-01&line_color=%230000ff&link_values=false&line_style=Solid&mark_type=NONE&mw=4&lw=1&ost=-99999&oet=99999&mma=0&fml=a&fq=Monthly&fam=avg&fgst=lin&transformation=lin&vintage_date=2013-05-17&revision_date=2013-05-17

[fredtrader]

Can never satisfy people that believes in conspiracies, no matter how many facts you give them.

Are you saying Paul Volcker is a conspiracy theorist?

Ok then, this one is straight from the FED website:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&id=BOGNONBR&scale=Left&range=Max&cosd=1959-01-01&coed=2013-04-01&line_color=%230000ff&link_values=false&line_style=Solid&mark_type=NONE&mw=4&lw=1&ost=-99999&oet=99999&mma=0&fml=a&fq=Monthly&fam=avg&fgst=lin&transformation=lin&vintage_date=2013-05-17&revision_date=2013-05-17

What are you trying to say with this graph? that banks now have sufficient reserves deposited at the FED?

[townf]

You can see from the FED graph that we might be ahead of Japan in the whole quantitative easing "solution".

One reason why we are safer from hyperinflation than Japan might be that generally Americans are too broke to borrow more money into existence, however if there comes a good asset bubble or two for the media to hype, then that won't last long.

The other is because of the dollar's global reserve currency status. However this is being threatened on several fronts, one of which is Iran selling hydrocarbons in currencies other than the dollar. This is the reason for most of the fear-mongering and hype is about Iran. I use this example to invite conspiracy theory claims, so that I might laugh at them.

[fredtrader]

Can never satisfy people that believes in conspiracies, no matter how many facts you give them.

Where are you getting those "facts"?

You can get numbers for anything you want from any credible database, these numbers are not made up they are calculated in very specific ways.
GDP numbers are calculated using 3 different methods that all add up with very little discrepancies. Inflation can be calculated in many ways but the different calculation methods give very similar results. The methods of calculation can be a little difficult but they are very transparent.

[hashman]

All major currencies maintain inflation at around 2%. There is no hyperinflation in Japan, Europe or the US.

Yet.

With much of the population having 0 savings or worse, and having no access to dollars (euro/yen) no matter how many new ones are added to institutional balance sheets, it does seem difficult to believe that hyperinflation could take off.  But then again, I've never lived through such a thing so I wouldn't know.   Probably it always seems like it would be impossible until it happens?  Eventually these bonuses start getting spent, execs start dropping big tips and buying up more goods and services, and word gets out on the street or something?  Any insight appreciated  

[townf]

What are you trying to say with this graph? that banks now have sufficient reserves deposited at the FED?

Instead of "sufficient", I might go out on a limb and say "inflated".

Also on a side note, look how hilariously dead broke insolvent the whole system was at one point.

[fredtrader]

You can see from the FED graph that we might be ahead of Japan in the whole quantitative easing "solution".

One reason why we are safer from hyperinflation than Japan might be that generally Americans are too broke to borrow more money into existence, however if there comes a good asset bubble or two for the media to hype, then that won't last long.

The other is because of the dollar's global reserve currency status. However this is being threatened on several fronts, one of which is Iran selling hydrocarbons in currencies other than the dollar. This is the reason for most of the fear-mongering and hype is about Iran. I use this example to invite conspiracy theory claims, so that I might laugh at them.

Quantitative easing is a temporary measure and the central bank of any country in question can take money out of circulation in the exact same way once banks start lending again.

Recessions cause people to hold back spending which is why inflation goes down, if it gets to deflation then recessions tend to get much worse which is why temporary measures are often put into place to keep inflation just above 0.

The money then gets taken out of circulation again by the central bank selling off the bonds they originally bought and never reintroducing the money back into circulation.

[myrkul]

Quantitative easing is a temporary measure and the central bank of any country in question can take money out of circulation in the exact same way once banks start lending again.

I believe they call that "starting a deflationary spiral."

[townf]

You can get numbers for anything you want from any credible database, these numbers are not made up they are calculated in very specific ways.
GDP numbers are calculated using 3 different methods that all add up with very little discrepancies. Inflation can be calculated in many ways but the different calculation methods give very similar results. The methods of calculation can be a little difficult but they are very transparent.

Yeah I'd say "very specific ways".

And I do agree they are transparent. That's how it's so easy to call bullshit on them.

One thing that isn't so transparent though is a lot of stealth inflation going on. Vendors are doing things like substituting horsemeat in hamburgers, faking honey and olive oil and the like. If you call me a conspiracy theorist, it will only serve to amuse me and cause me to chuckle somewhat.

Quantitative easing is a temporary measure and the central bank of any country in question can take money out of circulation in the exact same way once banks start lending again.

Recessions cause people to hold back spending which is why inflation goes down, if it gets to deflation then recessions tend to get much worse which is why temporary measures are often put into place to keep inflation just above 0.

The money then gets taken out of circulation again by the central bank selling off the bonds they originally bought and never reintroducing the money back into circulation.

The whole system is a broken down, dirty old joke.

[fredtrader]

If you have a better way to calculate the numbers you should write a paper on it, you would win a nobel prize.

[myrkul]

If you have a better way to calculate the numbers you should write a paper on it, you would win a nobel prize.

Once again:
http://www.shadowstats.com/
A better way to calculate the numbers (actually, just the old way, that produces accurate results)

[fredtrader]

If you have a better way to calculate the numbers you should write a paper on it, you would win a nobel prize.

Once again:
http://www.shadowstats.com/
A better way to calculate the numbers (actually, just the old way, that produces accurate results)

Those stats are laughable it suggests that inflation has been going up twice as much as wages in the last 20 years, which would mean we are a lot poorer than we were 20 years ago? That's insane to suggest that, production in real terms has gone up, not down.

edit: there is a reason why no one in academic circles listens to this nonsense.

[myrkul]

If you have a better way to calculate the numbers you should write a paper on it, you would win a nobel prize.

Once again:
http://www.shadowstats.com/
A better way to calculate the numbers (actually, just the old way, that produces accurate results)

Those stats are laughable it suggests that inflation has been going up twice as much as wages in the last 20 years, which would mean we are a lot poorer than we were 20 years ago?

The bottom rungs sure as shit are. I don't remember many "we are the 99%" protests from the '90's, do you?

[townf]

If you have a better way to calculate the numbers you should write a paper on it, you would win a nobel prize.

Once again:
http://www.shadowstats.com/
A better way to calculate the numbers (actually, just the old way, that produces accurate results)

Those stats are laughable it suggests that inflation has been going up twice as much as wages in the last 20 years, which would mean we are a lot poorer than we were 20 years ago? That's insane to suggest that, production in real terms has gone up, not down.

edit: there is a reason why no one in academic circles listens to this nonsense.

Egads! You are truly hilarious, my friend.

I will not bust out a big ol' can of smartass on you though, because you are where many were, and many are.

This has been done purposefully on everybody. It's called brainwashing. It is a very active, almost irresistably effective campaign, made all the more so over the years by mainstream media companies all being mortgaged balls deep, just like everybody else, including "representative" governments around the world. Together they weave an almost impossible matrix of misinformation.

If you call me a conspiracy theorist, I will tell you that you are doing it because you are brainwashed to reject conspiracy theories out of hand, most likely due to the term's perceived connotations of ridicule, and therefore your argument has no weight, but I may be wrong. If I'm not though, just call them "coverups" instead for awhile, and then go look at a few. Nothing about reptilian overlords from planet X though, that one's probably not true.

[myrkul]

Nothing about reptilian overlords from planet X though, that one's probably not true.

Of course not. They're not from planet X. 

[townf]

Nothing about reptilian overlords from planet X though, that one's probably not true.

Of course not. They're not from planet X. 

You are correct. And they're not reptilians either. This is a concerted disinformation campaign, meant to keep us focused. They are really Amazons from Venus!!!

[becoin]

Quantitative easing is a temporary measure and the central bank of any country in question can take money out of circulation

They can't. This is a one way street.

I don't see which sector of the economy has extra money that will be taken out of circulation by central banks? Certainly this is not the banking sector as all banks currently are under constant pressure to increase their capital.