Japan. The Yen. The Hyperinflation.

[townf]

Why do so many people find it hard to accept that things are fine?

How much are you paid per post, Hawker?

The system has continuously degraded. It's a one way evolution that can't be reversed. It's an evolving, one way process.

....snip...

Yet life gets better and better.  Its almost as the system needed to be degraded in order for us to have a pleasant standard of living.

CHA-CHING!  That one deserves a bonus.

A couple of you other guys could get a job where hawker works or maybe you guys already work there? 

[1714327738]

1714327738

[1714327738]

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[Hawker]

Why do so many people find it hard to accept that things are fine?

How much are you paid per post, Hawker?

The system has continuously degraded. It's a one way evolution that can't be reversed. It's an evolving, one way process.

....snip...

Yet life gets better and better.  Its almost as the system needed to be degraded in order for us to have a pleasant standard of living.

CHA-CHING!  That one deserves a bonus.

A couple of you other guys could get a job where hawker works or maybe you guys already work there? 

The average unemployed Briton today is better off than the average employed Briton was back in the days of the gold standard.  Like it or not, progress is real and if you want to say that something has been "degraded" to make it happen, then obviously that thing needed to degraded.

[Its About Sharing]

Why do so many people find it hard to accept that things are fine?

How much are you paid per post, Hawker?

The system has continuously degraded. It's a one way evolution that can't be reversed. It's an evolving, one way process.

....snip...

Yet life gets better and better.  Its almost as the system needed to be degraded in order for us to have a pleasant standard of living.

CHA-CHING!  That one deserves a bonus.

A couple of you other guys could get a job where hawker works or maybe you guys already work there?  

The average unemployed Briton today is better off than the average employed Briton was back in the days of the gold standard.  Like it or not, progress is real and if you want to say that something has been "degraded" to make it happen, then obviously that thing needed to degraded.

Is that a knock against the gold standard? I mean there are many many reasons things could have been worse back then than they are now.

Using "intelligent sounding words" (e.g. quantitative easing) is just hiding what is happening - printing money to stimulate an economy, which is a dangerous experiment. Economists say as much. These super artificially low interest rates are stealing money from savers and those savers, quite often, put their money into the stock markets to get a return. The banks are also funneling lots of money into the markets. It is a real life Ponzi scheme.

Is it worth it to experiment on an entire economy when it can go pop? How can globalization work when we have so many different cultural values regarding money around the world? Just look at the EU and the failures there (not to mention American "interventions" - Trillions in "overnight" loans to get around banking laws in America - starting last year).

Throw into the mix the naked short selling going on with Silver/Gold, we are making a dangerous recipe for failure.

[becoin]

Like it or not, progress is real and if you want to say that something has been "degraded" to make it happen, then obviously that thing needed to degraded.

Current level of indebtedness in Britain both public and private is at historical record. It is very easy (and silly) to constantly increase your indebtedness to show off some prosperity. The difficult part comes when you have to repay your debt but you can't produce anything that your creditor is willing to buy. Nobody is willing to pay for BOE pound printing press if it is not supported by North Sea oil. North Sea oil and oil-based British prosperity is already a history.

[Hawker]

Like it or not, progress is real and if you want to say that something has been "degraded" to make it happen, then obviously that thing needed to degraded.

Current level of indebtedness in Britain both public and private is at historical record. It is very easy (and silly) to constantly increase your indebtedness to show off some prosperity. The difficult part comes when you have to repay your debt but you can't produce anything that your creditor is willing to buy. Nobody is willing to pay for BOE pound printing press if it is not supported by North Sea oil. North Sea oil and oil-based British prosperity is already a history.

Unlike politics, history is a subject where facts matter.  As a matter of fact, the UK's current debt levels are low compared to the 1930s and the 1800s.  I won't bother comparing them to the huge debt levels that followed the second world war as that would simply embarrass your argument further.

[Hawker]

...snip...

The average unemployed Briton today is better off than the average employed Briton was back in the days of the gold standard.  Like it or not, progress is real and if you want to say that something has been "degraded" to make it happen, then obviously that thing needed to degraded.

Is that a knock against the gold standard? I mean there are many many reasons things could have been worse back then than they are now.

Using "intelligent sounding words" (e.g. quantitative easing) is just hiding what is happening - printing money to stimulate an economy, which is a dangerous experiment. Economists say as much. These super artificially low interest rates are stealing money from savers and those savers, quite often, put their money into the stock markets to get a return. The banks are also funneling lots of money into the markets. It is a real life Ponzi scheme.

Is it worth it to experiment on an entire economy when it can go pop? How can globalization work when we have so many different cultural values regarding money around the world? Just look at the EU and the failures there (not to mention American "interventions" - Trillions in "overnight" loans to get around banking laws in America - starting last year).

Throw into the mix the naked short selling going on with Silver/Gold, we are making a dangerous recipe for failure.

Its a dig against the pointless pessimism that you spread.  Moving from the gold standard was a positive move.  QE has been a positive move.  The real "dangerous experiment" has been to see what happens when you let unemployment rise and keep it artificially high out of a fear of inflation.  So far the results have been poor.

Meanwhile the good news from Japan keeps rolling in: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/19/your-money/japan-starts-to-recharge-after-two-lost-economic-decades.html  

[Its About Sharing]

...snip...

The average unemployed Briton today is better off than the average employed Briton was back in the days of the gold standard.  Like it or not, progress is real and if you want to say that something has been "degraded" to make it happen, then obviously that thing needed to degraded.

Is that a knock against the gold standard? I mean there are many many reasons things could have been worse back then than they are now.

Using "intelligent sounding words" (e.g. quantitative easing) is just hiding what is happening - printing money to stimulate an economy, which is a dangerous experiment. Economists say as much. These super artificially low interest rates are stealing money from savers and those savers, quite often, put their money into the stock markets to get a return. The banks are also funneling lots of money into the markets. It is a real life Ponzi scheme.

Is it worth it to experiment on an entire economy when it can go pop? How can globalization work when we have so many different cultural values regarding money around the world? Just look at the EU and the failures there (not to mention American "interventions" - Trillions in "overnight" loans to get around banking laws in America - starting last year).

Throw into the mix the naked short selling going on with Silver/Gold, we are making a dangerous recipe for failure.

Its a dig against the pointless pessimism that you spread.  Moving from the gold standard was a positive move.  QE has been a positive move.  The real "dangerous experiment" has been to see what happens when you let unemployment rise and keep it artificially high out of a fear of inflation.  So far the results have been poor.

Meanwhile the good news from Japan keeps rolling in: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/19/your-money/japan-starts-to-recharge-after-two-lost-economic-decades.html  

Pessimism? Hey guys, look at my post history. I'm very pro BTC and what it represents.

Don't confuse my optimism for BTC with my pessimism for Quantitative Easing.

Moving from a gold standard had a positive effect in many ways, namely liquidity. But there were many many bad effects. Most notably it got the country into huge debt and try to see if there is a connection with the all the wars. Remember John Kennedy put into action executive order 11110 to allow the US Treasury to coin and print money as the constitution called for. He basically told the private federal reserve "Why are we paying you interest? We should pay our selves interesst". And that is what he did. He put into circulation billions of US Treasury notes. They were pulled after his death. It would have gotten America out of debt. The world wouldn't be in the economic crisis it is in right now.

QE is just starting. Do you realize they can't just stop it (and raise rates) as it will pop by definition? Do you have any real idea what is going to happen. Did you just see the Cypress people get their funds stolen and gold raided? What is happening in Ireland, Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc? What is going to happen in Japan? Their stock market is shooting up but that is just giving false hope, just like in America - it will shift funds from banks (where interest is looooow) to the stock market - It is a Ponzi Scheme that can't be kept up endlessly. And when it goes it comes back down hard.

Your unemployment example I can agree with. But the numbers are fudged enough as it is AND people are working at lower paying jobs more and more. Much smaller issue as unemployment is a result of a lot of what these banks have been doing and set into motion.

Quantitative Easing is dangerous...

[becoin]

Meanwhile the good news from Japan keeps rolling in

Yep, Japan is entering Golden Era...

Weimar Republic Golden Era (1924–1929)

Gustav Stresemann was Reichskanzler for 100 days in 1923, and served as foreign minister from 1923–1929, a period of relative stability for the Weimar Republic, known in Germany as Goldene Zwanziger ("Golden Twenties"). Prominent features of this period were a growing economy and a consequent decrease in civil unrest.

The 1920s saw a remarkable cultural renaissance in Germany. During the worst phase of hyperinflation in 1923, the clubs and bars were full of speculators who spent their daily profits so they would not lose the value the following day.

[Hawker]

Meanwhile the good news from Japan keeps rolling in

Yep, Japan is entering it's Golden Era...

Weimar Republic Golden Era (1924–1929)

Gustav Stresemann was Reichskanzler for 100 days in 1923, and served as foreign minister from 1923–1929, a period of relative stability for the Weimar Republic, known in Germany as Goldene Zwanziger ("Golden Twenties"). Prominent features of this period were a growing economy and a consequent decrease in civil unrest.

The 1920s saw a remarkable cultural renaissance in Germany. During the worst phase of hyperinflation in 1923, the clubs and bars were full of speculators who spent their daily profits so they would not lose the value the following day.

When did the German economy go wrong?  In the 1930s under Brunning when they introduced austerity. 

[Hawker]

...snip...

It is a Ponzi Scheme that can't be kept up endlessly. And when it goes it comes back down hard.

...snip...

A ponzi scheme implies that there will be a day of reckoning.  There never is one for a state - when a 30 year bond falls due, it issues another 30 year bond if it doesn't have the tax revenues on hand to settle it.

The difference between our opinions is that you seem to think that the statist economies will fail in their own terms.  I really don't see that happening at all.  Countries like Ireland, where I am from, are paying the price for leaving the state game and becoming subsidiaries of the European Union.  If Ireland still had its own currency, it would be fine.

The interesting thing about Bitcoin is that it can be a competitive alternative.  The Soviet states did not fall apart due to inefficiency.  They failed because their people saw that there was a better alternative.  Even the leaders thought that having their kids live in the West would be better than life in Communist poverty even though the Communist states were a great success in their own terms.  Likewise, currencies like the dollar are fine in their own terms but having your funds in Bitcoin is a way better decision in terms of future spending power.  That fact will change everything as more and more people become aware of it.

[becoin]

When did the German economy go wrong?

The German economy went wrong when their industry went wrong. Not German economists and bankers, but German engineers are guilty for Weimar Republic crisis and coming of Hitler on power! German engineers couldn't figure out how to make dynamically changing wheelbarrows to accommodate dynamically changing size of banknote bales necessary to be brought to the bakery to get a loaf of bread.

[Its About Sharing]

...snip...

It is a Ponzi Scheme that can't be kept up endlessly. And when it goes it comes back down hard.

...snip...

A ponzi scheme implies that there will be a day of reckoning.  There never is one for a state - when a 30 year bond falls due, it issues another 30 year bond if it doesn't have the tax revenues on hand to settle it.

The difference between our opinions is that you seem to think that the statist economies will fail in their own terms.  I really don't see that happening at all.  Countries like Ireland, where I am from, are paying the price for leaving the state game and becoming subsidiaries of the European Union.  If Ireland still had its own currency, it would be fine.

The interesting thing about Bitcoin is that it can be a competitive alternative.  The Soviet states did not fall apart due to inefficiency.  They failed because their people saw that there was a better alternative.  Even the leaders thought that having their kids live in the West would be better than life in Communist poverty even though the Communist states were a great success in their own terms.  Likewise, currencies like the dollar are fine in their own terms but having your funds in Bitcoin is a way better decision in terms of future spending power.  That fact will change everything as more and more people become aware of it.

From Wiki - "A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to its investors from their own money or the money paid by subsequent investors, rather than from profit earned by the individual or organization running the operation. The Ponzi scheme usually entices new investors by offering higher returns than other investments, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent. Perpetuation of the high returns requires an ever-increasing flow of money from new investors to keep the scheme going.[1]"

This by all standards is the stock markets right now. Look at the US and now Japan. The stock markets are shooting up all the while productivity, income, etc. are going down. How is this even possible? It's because money is fleeing to the stock market because banks are not paying good interest rates and banks are further "investing" into them - all to support this policy which is just making shareholders richer. It can help anybody with funds in the market of course, but again, this thing will have to come down. We can't keep up this kind of policy as a long term policy. It is an EMERGENCY policy because of recent and past quantitive policies.

This is a Bitcoin forum and I just don't see you finding support for quantitive easing talk. Bitcoin is basically the savior of the problems those types of policies have created.

And also, you never addressed your first personal attack which was saying I am pessimistic (in general) and yet when you look at my posts it is clear I am Pro Bitcoin. You are trying to label me as something because I don't agree with you on quantitative easing, and you have ignored that.

Bitcoin is a better alternative...

[myrkul]

Meanwhile the good news from Japan keeps rolling in

Yep, Japan is entering it's Golden Era...

Weimar Republic Golden Era (1924–1929)

Gustav Stresemann was Reichskanzler for 100 days in 1923, and served as foreign minister from 1923–1929, a period of relative stability for the Weimar Republic, known in Germany as Goldene Zwanziger ("Golden Twenties"). Prominent features of this period were a growing economy and a consequent decrease in civil unrest.

The 1920s saw a remarkable cultural renaissance in Germany. During the worst phase of hyperinflation in 1923, the clubs and bars were full of speculators who spent their daily profits so they would not lose the value the following day.

When did the German economy go wrong?  In the 1930s under Brunning when they introduced austerity. 

Yeah, Detox from the inflation high is a bitch.

Don't ya think it might be wise not to start chasing the dragon in the first place?

[Its About Sharing]

When did the German economy go wrong?

The German economy went wrong when their industry went wrong. Not German economists and bankers, but German engineers are guilty for Weimar Republic crisis and coming of Hitler on power! German engineers couldn't figure out how to make dynamically changing wheelbarrows to accommodate dynamically changing size of banknote bales necessary to be brought to the bakery to get a loaf of bread.

ehehe. Yes, it is clear this wheelbarrow was not senior friendly.



And this one was just not maneuverable enough. Really too big to bring a loaf of bread back on as well.

[Hawker]

Meanwhile the good news from Japan keeps rolling in

Yep, Japan is entering it's Golden Era...

Weimar Republic Golden Era (1924–1929)

Gustav Stresemann was Reichskanzler for 100 days in 1923, and served as foreign minister from 1923–1929, a period of relative stability for the Weimar Republic, known in Germany as Goldene Zwanziger ("Golden Twenties"). Prominent features of this period were a growing economy and a consequent decrease in civil unrest.

The 1920s saw a remarkable cultural renaissance in Germany. During the worst phase of hyperinflation in 1923, the clubs and bars were full of speculators who spent their daily profits so they would not lose the value the following day.

When did the German economy go wrong?  In the 1930s under Brunning when they introduced austerity. 

Yeah, Detox from the inflation high is a bitch.

Don't ya think it might be wise not to start chasing the dragon in the first place?

The Germans were unique in that they went for higher inflation than anyone else and then went for stricter austerity than anyone else.  The Versailles Treaty is the big factor in both. 

[myrkul]

Meanwhile the good news from Japan keeps rolling in

Yep, Japan is entering it's Golden Era...

Weimar Republic Golden Era (1924–1929)

Gustav Stresemann was Reichskanzler for 100 days in 1923, and served as foreign minister from 1923–1929, a period of relative stability for the Weimar Republic, known in Germany as Goldene Zwanziger ("Golden Twenties"). Prominent features of this period were a growing economy and a consequent decrease in civil unrest.

The 1920s saw a remarkable cultural renaissance in Germany. During the worst phase of hyperinflation in 1923, the clubs and bars were full of speculators who spent their daily profits so they would not lose the value the following day.

When did the German economy go wrong?  In the 1930s under Brunning when they introduced austerity. 

Yeah, Detox from the inflation high is a bitch.

Don't ya think it might be wise not to start chasing the dragon in the first place?

The Germans were unique in that they went for higher inflation than anyone else and then went for stricter austerity than anyone else.  The Versailles Treaty is the big factor in both. 

So, a little heroin is OK, as long as you don't overdo it? And if rather than going cold-turkey, you gently bring yourself off of it?

If only it weren't other people's lives that they're messing with....

[Hawker]

Meanwhile the good news from Japan keeps rolling in

Yep, Japan is entering it's Golden Era...

Weimar Republic Golden Era (1924–1929)

Gustav Stresemann was Reichskanzler for 100 days in 1923, and served as foreign minister from 1923–1929, a period of relative stability for the Weimar Republic, known in Germany as Goldene Zwanziger ("Golden Twenties"). Prominent features of this period were a growing economy and a consequent decrease in civil unrest.

The 1920s saw a remarkable cultural renaissance in Germany. During the worst phase of hyperinflation in 1923, the clubs and bars were full of speculators who spent their daily profits so they would not lose the value the following day.

When did the German economy go wrong?  In the 1930s under Brunning when they introduced austerity. 

Yeah, Detox from the inflation high is a bitch.

Don't ya think it might be wise not to start chasing the dragon in the first place?

The Germans were unique in that they went for higher inflation than anyone else and then went for stricter austerity than anyone else.  The Versailles Treaty is the big factor in both. 

So, a little heroin is OK, as long as you don't overdo it? And if rather than going cold-turkey, you gently bring yourself off of it?

If only it weren't other people's lives that they're messing with....

Yes - used at the right time, heroin is fine.  Heroin was made as a therapeutic drug and when its needed, its fine to use it.  And the same is true of inflation.  If its needed, as it is in Japan, then use it.  When the need passes, stop. 

I can't see why you find that hard to accept.

[sangaman]

The real "dangerous experiment" has been to see what happens when you let unemployment rise and keep it artificially high out of a fear of inflation.  So far the results have been poor.

Agreed. Ultimately, the real wealth of any nation is defined by the value of the goods and services it produces and consumes. If your economic policies lead to large portions of the able and willing working-age population sitting at home, then you are just wasting economic productivity and lowering your nation's standard of living (not to mention the social costs of unemployment).

We ought to be cutting taxes to let the private sector grow and higher more people and/or increasing govt spending to let the public sector hire more people (preferably for things like teachers and construction workers, and not soldiers or weapons manufacturers). Instead, way too many people are freaking out over inflation or the national debt and act as if they are threats to future generations. The real threats are if we let our society degrade through poverty/unemployment or if we don't invest enough real resources into education and technology so that future generations can be productive. Who cares if the debt in 20-30 years is $10T or $100T or what M1/M2/M3 are? What's most important is there there's an educated, well-off working class with state of the art infrastructure and technology at their fingertips.

[becoin]

When the need passes, stop. 

The need never passes. Japan is already 20 years on heroin. The doze must be ever stronger with each year. It is a classic case of heroin junkie.

[myrkul]

Yes - used at the right time, heroin is fine.  Heroin was made as a therapeutic drug and when its needed, its fine to use it.  And the same is true of inflation.  If its needed, as it is in Japan, then use it.  When the need passes, stop. 

I can't see why you find that hard to accept.

Except that the governments keep doctor shopping until they find one that will prescribe them infinite amounts of heroin, and the minute one starts to talk about lowering the dose, they fire him and get another. And God forbid a doctor comes along and suggests that Heroin isn't needed at all, that pain is natural, and it tells us when we're doing damage to our body, and we shouldn't just keep using drugs to mask the symptoms. That doctor gets laughed right out of the office.