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Author Topic: Bitcoins = Friendster. What will be the Digital equivalent of Facebook?  (Read 1701 times)
Shinobi
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June 22, 2011, 01:23:08 AM
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Bitcoins are an incredible creation, and a testament to mathematical elegance. But they will not be the iteration of digital currency ultimately adopted by society. This is what it ultimately comes down to.



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June 22, 2011, 01:25:31 AM
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Let's see. It'd have to be centralized, inconvenience users, and generally act evil... I don't know. Maybe it's Paypal.
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June 22, 2011, 01:37:46 AM
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Reading the topic, I thought the OP was looking for Facebook alternatives:
I agree, Bitcoin will be a transient experiment that fails just as quickly as facebook does. It is impossible to predict what Bitcoin 2.0 will look like.

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June 22, 2011, 01:40:30 AM
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Let's see. It'd have to be centralized, inconvenience users, and generally act evil... I don't know.

No, that's what Bitcoin has proven to be.

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Shinobi
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June 22, 2011, 01:57:11 AM
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Let's see. It'd have to be centralized, inconvenience users, and generally act evil... I don't know.

No, that's what Bitcoin has proven to be.


Uhh... OK. But only because you say so.

Only because I say so? Not because there currently is no real market open right now (Tradehill = trading suspended, MT. Gox = purgatory, Britcoin = trading suspended) to even exchange Bitcoins? Not because thousands upon thousands of users have been inconvenienced by this "hack" with money and coins tied up and unreachable? Not because of the fact that STILL noone knows the real story behind Mt. Gox and whether the site has any coins or reserves or whether it will ever come back online?

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June 22, 2011, 01:58:22 AM
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Bitcoins are an incredible creation, and a testament to mathematical elegance. But they will not be the iteration of digital currency ultimately adopted by society. This is what it ultimately comes down to.




Why?

unbuttered_toast
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June 22, 2011, 02:05:54 AM
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Let's see. It'd have to be centralized, inconvenience users, and generally act evil... I don't know.

No, that's what Bitcoin has proven to be.


Uhh... OK. But only because you say so.

Only because I say so? Not because there currently is no real market open right now (Tradehill = trading suspended, MT. Gox = purgatory, Britcoin = trading suspended) to even exchange Bitcoins? Not because thousands upon thousands of users have been inconvenienced by this "hack" with money and coins tied up and unreachable? Not because of the fact that STILL noone knows the real story behind Mt. Gox and whether the site has any coins or reserves or whether it will ever come back online?

Don't conflate Mt. Gox with Bitcoin. That'd be like confusing Paypal and Dollars and damn I broke my analogy.

Anyways, Bitcoins require a lot from people as they are now, because the bare technology is all up in users' faces. That is not necessarily how it has to be forever. I look towards a brighter future where the ignorant, incompetent, inattentive, credulous, and uncynical can use bitcoins indirectly with impunity.  Grin
Shinobi
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June 22, 2011, 02:10:08 AM
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Bitcoins are an incredible creation, and a testament to mathematical elegance. But they will not be the iteration of digital currency ultimately adopted by society. This is what it ultimately comes down to.




Why?

The window for gaining public acceptance was destroyed by the fiasco we are witnessing. No regular person being introduced to Bitcoin by an article on its use to sell hardcore narcotics, and now, exposure about its complete crash within minutes and the resulting scandal regarding propriety at the largest exchange through which it was traded, is going to touch it with a 10-foot pole. Cry all you want, mainstream adotion - with all the funds it could inject into the BTC economy - is a necessity for its success. That window was not only closed, but slammed shut, boarded up and graffiti-covered by the insanity unfolding over the last three days.

Given the open-source nature of the existing infrastructure, any serious pioneer of digital currency would just run a do-over with different branding altogether and, learning from the mistakes of Bitcoin, shore up the obvious security-holes immensely. Call it e-bill, iDollars, or whatever you want. Just not the trainwreck known as "Bitcoins".

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June 22, 2011, 02:13:37 AM
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The window for gaining public acceptance was destroyed by the fiasco we are witnessing. No regular person being introduced to Bitcoin by an article on its use to sell hardcore narcotics, and now, exposure about its complete crash within minutes and the resulting scandal regarding propriety at the largest exchange through which it was traded, is going to touch it with a 10-foot pole. Cry all you want, mainstream adotion - with all the funds it could inject into the BTC economy - is a necessity for its success. That window was not only closed, but slammed shut, boarded up and graffiti-covered by the insanity unfolding over the last three days.

Given the open-source nature of the existing infrastructure, any serious pioneer of digital currency would just run a do-over with different branding altogether and, learning from the mistakes of Bitcoin, shore up the obvious security-holes immensely. Call it e-bill, iDollars, or whatever you want. Just not the trainwreck known as "Bitcoins".

Wow.  Someone actually gets it.  Could not have said it better myself.

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June 22, 2011, 02:16:15 AM
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Don't conflate Mt. Gox with Bitcoin.

Why not? Without any real good/services community in which Bitcoins could create exposure, its sole use was for day-trading. Bitcoins were largely "lived" through Mt. Gox, with a smattering at a few smaller exchanges. Nothing else was being done with Bitcoins. Do you really believe there was a thriving market to actually buy things, or than selling and rebuying bitcoins? The public will naturally, and justifiably "conflate" the two, because they are inseparable.

Think about it. With Mt. Gox down, and Tradehill and Britcoin in a holding pattern, do you think Bitcoins are being used for, or otherwise doing anything, but sitting in some miner's hard drive, or tied up in the slush accounts of the exchanges?

I think digital currency is inevitable, but it will not be Bitcoins. It will be a new currency, perhaps almost identical but with various improvements - and most importantly, without the baggage and sullied reputation - that will grab society. It won't be Bitcoins.

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Shinobi
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June 22, 2011, 02:24:27 AM
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Wow.  Someone actually gets it.  Could not have said it better myself.

Hey, thanks. That was actually quite validating. I've been trying to open people's eyes on here, partly because I am saddened at how easily people will fall to the greed that so recently led to the disrepair of our economy. I don't doubt the sincerity, and, in fact, applaud the passion of folks who are justifiable discontent with the current banking system to try and do something different. But I think all that passion mixed with greed is leading a lot of folks to buy into the "new paradigm" patter so much so that they are ignoring obvious signs that the Bitcoin economy as it has been implemented is *not* perfect.

What blows my mind is that the worst possible thing - a complete crash, and attack on the integrity of the system has occurred - and people are still lining up to heap praise and make excuses for those who, by their irresponsibility (Mt. Gox, I'm pointing squarely at you) and willful negligence, fucked over the same folks.

As I mention in another thread, this insanity is akin to religious fundamentalism.

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June 22, 2011, 02:28:43 AM
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someone who understands market dynamics and human psychology. 

good on ya.
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June 22, 2011, 02:29:04 AM
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Not a train wreck yet.  That's a little premature.  Besides this is the first of its kind and more will follow.
The e-currency war is just getting started.  It doesn't need society to accept this version 1.0 and I suspect they never will.  

But it will grow, that's inevitable now.  Besides, it's most basic use is as a medium of exchange.
Day Trading only benefits early adopters as they fleece newcomers.

This version 1.0 has got legs.
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June 22, 2011, 02:33:54 AM
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Wow.  Someone actually gets it.  Could not have said it better myself.

Hey, thanks. That was actually quite validating. I've been trying to open people's eyes on here, partly because I am saddened at how easily people will fall to the greed that so recently led to the disrepair of our economy. I don't doubt the sincerity, and, in fact, applaud the passion of folks who are justifiable discontent with the current banking system to try and do something different. But I think all that passion mixed with greed is leading a lot of folks to buy into the "new paradigm" patter so much so that they are ignoring obvious signs that the Bitcoin economy as it has been implemented is *not* perfect.

What blows my mind is that the worst possible thing - a complete crash, and attack on the integrity of the system has occurred - and people are still lining up to heap praise and make excuses for those who, by their irresponsibility (Mt. Gox, I'm pointing squarely at you) and willful negligence, fucked over the same folks.

As I mention in another thread, this insanity is akin to religious fundamentalism.


do you actually own any coins ? if you are really so sure a complete crash is coming, and you put your coins where your mouth is, I will buy them all at market price. if not, you can move to paypal forum with your shitload.


If you don't own the private keys, you don't own the coins.
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June 22, 2011, 02:39:31 AM
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Don't conflate Mt. Gox with Bitcoin.

Why not? Without any real good/services community in which Bitcoins could create exposure, its sole use was for day-trading. Bitcoins were largely "lived" through Mt. Gox, with a smattering at a few smaller exchanges. Nothing else was being done with Bitcoins. Do you really believe there was a thriving market to actually buy things, or than selling and rebuying bitcoins? The public will naturally, and justifiably "conflate" the two, because they are inseparable.

...


"Naturally," sure. "Justifiably," not so much, unless your position is really that bitcoins are good for nothing except speculation. There are a fair number of ways to spend bitcoins, and I don't see those disappearing right away. The speculation made for sexy headlines, but it's obviously not the best use of the currency.

It doesn't take a lot of new information to push aside a weak negative impression like "wasn't that the thing getting hyped up some months ago with all the hacking?" People have short memories, and hear about bad things in the news all the time... I don't think this is as bad as you think it is. Look at politicians walking away from "scandals"--the major bitcoin exchange getting hacked has about as much to do with the system's fundamentals, and I bet in a couple months it'll be distant history. Unless there are more exchanges getting hacked then, of course... Cheesy

I'm not strongly committed to the idea that Bitcoin hasn't become an unfixable PR disaster, but I could see it succeeding still. The fundamental mechanisms underlying the system haven't had any major problems yet. Either way, I'm going to buy some beef jerky.
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June 22, 2011, 03:30:03 AM
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But I think all that passion mixed with greed is leading a lot of folks to buy into the "new paradigm" patter so much so that they are ignoring obvious signs that the Bitcoin economy as it has been implemented is *not* perfect.

I have a few meatspace friends who use Bitcoin, spread around different continents. Most, if not all, of them don't think of it as an investment tool, but a cool idea which is going to take off in the following years.

There are a lot of new people flowing in, many of them not informed enough to be using this experimental technology. I suspect that very few people think the system is perfect. To me, the problem is that people expect it to be "complete" and get frustrated easily. Bitcoin is about shifting the status quo, it is not supposed to work without problems. We are all still "early adopters", but many newcomers don't think about it that way. The incentive to adopt early is there so that you will be inclined to build services around it to make the currency succeed, not to help you make a few bucks by riding on a bandwagon. Hopefully, wisdom will prevail.

Without any real good/services community in which Bitcoins could create exposure, its sole use was for day-trading.

Again, I think this is to your experience. Bitcoin economy might be deeper (if not better established) than you think.

For many of us, the whole idea is to integrate it into our daily lives. Although I have people around me that insist that mining and speculation are good ideas (and although I think both are beneficial for Bitcoin), my inclination has been actively using it to buy services and use it as a currency between my immediate associates. In that aspect, it has already been successful for me. I don't day trade, and don't think most people do, although I agree with you that most of the transactions are financial (and speculative) in nature.

People who use it as a currency might be less than enough to sustain current prices, but I don't see any reason to not use it as a currency. Worst case, price will go down and the growth will be slower and more steady. We will have to hear less whining and more business.
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June 22, 2011, 03:33:10 AM
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Cause your so important, and EVERYONE should listen to you.  Roll Eyes

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June 22, 2011, 03:34:24 AM
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Someone needs to debut a peer to peer exchange service ASAP to shut up all the doubters. I don't know how it would work, but all the people who are potentially rich with all their Bitcoins have the incentive to figure it out.
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June 22, 2011, 03:35:31 AM
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Someone needs to debut a peer to peer exchange service ASAP to shut up all the doubters.

you already have it, bitcoin-otc.com

If you don't own the private keys, you don't own the coins.
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June 22, 2011, 03:35:39 AM
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Someone needs to debut a peer to peer exchange service ASAP to shut up all the doubters.
That would be nice... But a system like that would have to be very complex.

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