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[iceice]

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[GRILLMASTER]

You should checkout the #bitcoin-analysis chat on freenode

[bitcoinomics]

Where's the actual analysis?

 

[Mac21]

thats if you assume bitcoin will go down

[bitcoinomics]

thats if you assume bitcoin will go down

made me lol   

[niothor]

here's my ew analysis of btc. please post your chart or comment. thank you

This is what you think it will happen? Or what you WANT to happen ?

[gmg]

zooming in on wave A shows it's a diagonal triangle type 2 since this is wave A. notice how wave 4 and 1 overlap

diagonal is not a 5th wave or a C wave so no violent change in direction



if someone knows where wave B maximum retracement level after such diagonal triangle forms please post. i assume B wave retraces similar to a zigzag = 61.8% maximum

It cannot be a diagonal: these occur at the END of a trend, not as first waves! Plus, wave 3 seems go bottom lower than wave 5!

Having said that, you OP analysis looks plausible. It's just that A is more probably an a-b-c wave than an impulse.

[gmg]

wow are you seriously looking at charts... do you know TA is useless and will lose you money 50 the time.. so useless.

As any seasoned investor knows, it doesn't matter what percentage of time you lose money. It's all about how much you make or lose in each trade. I've been using EWA for years and I can confirm that you're right: about 50% of my trades have been unsuccessful. But if I lose a dollar 50% of the time and I make three in the other 50%, I'm much better off in the end, thank you!

But, seriously now, if you're not interested in 'seriously looking at charts', why are you reading this thread? 

[Instacoins]

Nice posts man. I have been studying trading for hmm, about 6 months now! Do you find Elliot Wave Theory and Fibonnaci Retracements to offer insight? I haven't invested the time into becoming an expert on either of them, although I'm quite familiar with the concepts.

[MoreFun]

thats if you assume bitcoin will go down

Just mirror it if you assume it will go up 

[MeshachBlue]

Elliott wave analysis assumes big companies are investing... etc. etc.

Lots of assumptions in elliott wave analysis that I don't think applies to bitcoin.......

[zeroblock]

It's all regression analysis projected into the future via stochastic modelling, elliot waves, etc. 

[tols]

And if I draw a giant bold line with a sharp angle in it over here.....

[drwho88888]

Technical Analysis is like faith and based more on wishful thinking rather than any facts.

Always works in backtesting but can't be walked forward with anything other than hope.

[gmg]

iceice, just a word of caution: every time I found myself counting multiple 1s and 2s, waiting for a third of a third of a third, I ended up realising my count was wrong... I don't say this is the case here, because I haven't done the measurements, just sharing my (painful) experience!

[Instacoins]

Ice, you ever heard of Turtle Trading?  That's my personal fav strategy at this moment

[gmg]

a little update... it wants to go parabolic

iceice, your 1 and 2 seem to be way out of proportion, time-wise, with the (developing) 3. Maybe 1 is where you put your i?

[cp1]

what does it look like when you break egg shells or drop some bones over the chart?

[TheGovernedSelf]

Where does the C come from? Any reasoning?

[Instacoins]

Ice, you ever heard of Turtle Trading?  That's my personal fav strategy at this moment

i havent heard of it. if you have time please explain it. thanks

Sure, what I'll do is upload a good lecture of it onto YouTube and send you the unlisted link. There used to be a good account 'FooledByRandomness' up on YouTube, but it was removed! Thankfully I downloaded the most pertinent lecture that has helped me personally the most. I'll send it your way today and you can tell me what you think.