segwit2x

[Carlton Banks]

Comments are based on the assumption that current miners hold their signaled position.

[snip]

I see the current Bitcoin wonderful success as a very large ocean liner, used by a lot of people.  Useage patters like oceanliners turn slowly.  So while there may indeed be longterm ways around the existing exchanges (and damn I hope their are),  I don't see that as having much effect in 2018 while Bitcoin-from-segwit2x rocks on and Core-ALT-Bitcoin is a low volume altcoin trying to get listed.

You're making alot of assumptions

It's unlikely that people will choose to transact on the S2x chain, Bitpay and Coinbase aren't enough to keep it going, alternative to both have existed for years.


And the "who's calling what an altcoin" stuff is a pretty funny joke. It doesn't matter what's called what, it's about the overall technology model behind the coin that counts. Being called "Bitcoin" isn't a magic trick that makes something valuable money, unfortunately

[acyclic]

You're making alot of assumptions

It's unlikely that people will choose to transact on the S2x chain, Bitpay and Coinbase aren't enough to keep it going, alternative to both have existed for years.


And the "who's calling what an altcoin" stuff is a pretty funny joke. It doesn't matter what's called what, it's about the overall technology model behind the coin that counts. Being called "Bitcoin" isn't a magic trick that makes something valuable money, unfortunately

I have been trying to clearly outline my assumptions so that they can be challenged.
For instance

Comments assume the miner/exchange cohesion continues.  (still applies)

Other Assumptions:

that the supporting exchanges will follow their stated position to follow the majority hash power.
defining a new core hash for POW, testing of it, deploying it and achieving significant usage will take finite, non-trivial, time.
a large fraction of bitcoin users are not super-knowledgeable about crypto currency algorithms
a large fraction of users get their bitcoins from majority hash following exchanges and not peer-to-peer at least for the next year.
a large fraction of users who spend their bitcoins with merchants do so by way of merchant support from companies like Bitpay.

I am willing to update/revise my assumptions based on discussion if appropriate.  I sure don't think I have all/most/many of the answers. On the other hand I don't think my assumptions are far off.  The most interesting one, in my opinion, is miner cohesion but I don't speak Chinese so I can't help there.

Coinbase, Bitpay, Gemini, and quite a large number of heavy hitters are spelled out in the New York Agreement.

relative to "who's calling what an alt coin"  It aint me babe.  Its (assuming miner/exchange cohesion continues) Coinbase, Gemini, Bitpay  and on and on that have tons of real customers who will be calling Bitcoin-from-segwit2x Bitcoin/BTC and to use their services a Core supported coin won't be that.  It will be like eth or ripple or bitcoin cash - AN ALTCOIN.

One actually needs some assumptions defined if you want to attempt to reasonably model the future progress of something

[Xavofat]

Bitpay and Coinbase aren't enough to keep it going, alternative to both have existed for years.

There are other alternatives, but that requires:

-Users to only buy from merchants which are using an alternative payment gateway that accepts the earlier chain
-Merchants to actively switch their payment gateway to a new one

Ultimately, if a user wants to buy from a merchant, they will just buy from them.  It's unlikely that they will go to the lengths of actively avoiding a huge amount of merchants out of opposition to the SegWit2x chain.

relative to "who's calling what an alt coin"  It aint me babe.  Its (assuming miner/exchange cohesion continues) Coinbase, Gemini, Bitpay  and on and on that have tons of real customers who will be calling Bitcoin-from-segwit2x Bitcoin/BTC and to use their services a Core supported coin won't be that.

It seems likely that users (and companies) will just call whichever one they prefer Bitcoin, and that there won't be a chain which everyone just simultaneously agrees is Bitcoin because the support for each chain won't be so overwhelming that the other becomes less relevant.

[acyclic]

It seems likely that users (and companies) will just call whichever one they prefer Bitcoin, and that there won't be a chain which everyone just simultaneously agrees is Bitcoin because the support for each chain won't be so overwhelming that the other becomes less relevant.

Assuming miner/exchange cohesion continues:

What do you think the Bitcoin as original Bitcoin use case(s) in 2018 is going to be. Do you think that there will be exchanges say in the US for that?
Peer-to-peer?
merchant agreements?

And how long is it going to take to get the new POW hash implemented to protect this coin from mischief? or is that not necessary?
And without the POW hardfork how is difficulty going to adjust in any rational time with the loss of the >90 percent of the miner hashpower?

Thanks for your comment.  This issue of relative chain support is exactly what I am trying to understand. I am having some difficulty seeing how the original chain keeps on trucking. But I certainly don't have a comprehensive understanding of the existing food chain.

[franky1]

everyone knows core doesnt want to be a payment system so forget trying to push cores altcoin as being something merchants will use direct. core want their future coin to be some background coin that people just hold. hence the recent rumours of it turning into a ponzi because of the lack of real utility and just being used to rob peter to pay paul for profit with each new holder.

as for CB not caring about coinbase/bitpay. the hard lesson he has to learn is if a coin has no utility its just a crap coin like the other 1000 crap coins being held in the hope someone else will buy it for profit... but never happens

utility is key, merchant adoption is the door way. anyone thinking a currency can prosper without utility is just fooling themselves or just saying crap because they heard someone else say the crap and brainwashed into believing it