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Author Topic: 6 blocks an hour my ass!  (Read 6768 times)
triforcelink
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June 22, 2011, 07:48:35 AM
 #1

I have yet to see anything at or below 6 blocks an hour... how is the network supposed to create 6 blocks an hour when it seems to average way above that.. did I miss something?

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June 22, 2011, 07:55:00 AM
 #2

An average 6 blocks per hour is only when the network hashing capacity is at an equilibrium. If it is in a rapid upward trend it will be faster.

You could argue that it should have had a more sophisticated control algorithm that will approach the target average over time, but long term it doesn't matter much.

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triforcelink
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June 22, 2011, 07:58:09 AM
 #3

fair enough. I keep hearing '6 blocks an hour' like that number is hard-coded into the system.

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June 22, 2011, 08:51:04 AM
 #4

fair enough. I keep hearing '6 blocks an hour' like that number is hard-coded into the system.

6 blocks an hour is how the network adjusts the difficulty level.  More than 6 blocks in an hour and the difficulty level will go up, less than 6 blocks and it will go down.

Currently we are at 10.88 blocks an hour average!  Get ready for a huge difficulty level increase to ~1.3M!

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June 22, 2011, 04:08:58 PM
 #5

Yeah, I've been harping on 50% difficulty increases for the next 6 increases (~2 months).

People getting in to mining think that the difficulty stays at 1 level for months at a time.

They don't realize the network is increasing difficulty by 50% every 9.5 days.

By September, the difficulty should be in the 7M range.  People should be using that as their difficulty calculation, not the 877k difficulty which expires in 2 days.

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June 22, 2011, 04:25:45 PM
 #6

A few days ago on here, someone was claiming to calculate the income of a 5830, and he calmly stated what a months' income would be -- based on 877K difficulty!

(Newsflash, bro: that difficulty level expires in LESS THAN TWO DAYS! Sorry to burst your bubble)

So you won't get more than 2 days income at this difficulty -- and then you can't count on 1.3M difficulty either, because that will only last 8 or 9 days...

Those monthly income projections are so stupid. That's why you have people wanting to sell/return their mining hardware -- when reality comes a-calling.
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June 22, 2011, 05:45:28 PM
 #7

By September, the difficulty should be in the 7M range.

assuming people are sane/aren't mining for free/price doesn't soar back up/electric rate doesn't go up or down/etc., people will start dropping out before then.

my 6870 will stop being profitable at about 5.6 million difficulty, assuming $15/BTC with my fairly cheap $0.09/KWhr electricity.
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June 22, 2011, 05:51:37 PM
 #8

I just did some calculations for the hell of it, assuming a 50% growth rate in computing power (we've seen this for the last 6 months on average).

In a month (6500 blocks roughly given 9 days per 2000 blocks) given the above assumption, your current rig will earn only 30% of what it is earning now in terms of BTC.

In two months, it'll earn 7% of what it is currently earning.

In three months, it's going to earn a measly 1.7% of what it's earning now.

So unless we see a MASSIVE increase in BTC valuation or computational power levels off for some reason, mining will become unprofitable for most people quite quickly.
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June 22, 2011, 05:52:00 PM
 #9

A few days ago on here, someone was claiming to calculate the income of a 5830, and he calmly stated what a months' income would be -- based on 877K difficulty!

(Newsflash, bro: that difficulty level expires in LESS THAN TWO DAYS! Sorry to burst your bubble)

So you won't get more than 2 days income at this difficulty -- and then you can't count on 1.3M difficulty either, because that will only last 8 or 9 days...

Those monthly income projections are so stupid. That's why you have people wanting to sell/return their mining hardware -- when reality comes a-calling.


Ok, bra...so whats different about the 5830, or any other card, troll? Now you show up here harping on the 5830.

Difficulty increases are across the board, whether the new miner with one 4650, or the super miner with 20 rigs of 4x 6990s. Everyone will be affected the same.

Mining for block generation is for the long haul, and correlates with both difficulty and price. Both can go up, and down, Captain Obvious.
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June 22, 2011, 05:56:27 PM
 #10

A few days ago on here, someone was claiming to calculate the income of a 5830, and he calmly stated what a months' income would be -- based on 877K difficulty!

(Newsflash, bro: that difficulty level expires in LESS THAN TWO DAYS! Sorry to burst your bubble)

So you won't get more than 2 days income at this difficulty -- and then you can't count on 1.3M difficulty either, because that will only last 8 or 9 days...

Those monthly income projections are so stupid. That's why you have people wanting to sell/return their mining hardware -- when reality comes a-calling.


Ok, bra...so whats different about the 5830, or any other card, troll? Now you show up here harping on the 5830.

Difficulty increases are across the board, whether the new miner with one 4650, or the super miner with 20 rigs of 4x 6990s. Everyone will be affected the same.

Mining for block generation is for the long haul, and correlates with both difficulty and price. Both can go up, and down, Captain Obvious.


Efficiency is going to be paramount. You need to have the most efficient hardware / cheap electricity or you will get squeezed out of the market as your rig's running costs will be greater than the BTC you earn.
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June 22, 2011, 06:01:45 PM
 #11

I just did some calculations for the hell of it, assuming a 50% growth rate in computing power (we've seen this for the last 6 months on average).

In a month (6500 blocks roughly given 9 days per 2000 blocks) given the above assumption, your current rig will earn only 30% of what it is earning now in terms of BTC.

In two months, it'll earn 7% of what it is currently earning.

In three months, it's going to earn a measly 1.7% of what it's earning now.

So unless we see a MASSIVE increase in BTC valuation or computational power levels off for some reason, mining will become unprofitable for most people quite quickly.

Yes, there is a mathematical limit for the # of coins you can earn, too, based on a 50% increase of difficulty resulting in a 2/3 drop in coins per increase.  The formula is very straightforward, because 2/3^x becomes a geometric series.

It ends up being 3*N, where N is the # of coins you are mining per difficulty (9 days).  At 1.0Ghash, a miner got 9 coins.  So no matter what, if the difficulty goes up 50% forever, that miner can expect to mine 27 coins over the lifetime of his rig. Period.

Someone like me at 330mhash has an 'N' value of 3, since I will only pull 3 BTC out of this 877k difficulty.  So my maximum coins, ever is 9.  Provided continual 50% increases of difficulty.

The limit is so steep that by the 6th difficulty, I will have mined ~8 coins, so from then to infinity, I would get 1 more coin, which means 6 50% difficulties is the endgame.

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bcpokey
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June 22, 2011, 06:05:06 PM
 #12

I just did some calculations for the hell of it, assuming a 50% growth rate in computing power (we've seen this for the last 6 months on average).

In a month (6500 blocks roughly given 9 days per 2000 blocks) given the above assumption, your current rig will earn only 30% of what it is earning now in terms of BTC.

In two months, it'll earn 7% of what it is currently earning.

In three months, it's going to earn a measly 1.7% of what it's earning now.

So unless we see a MASSIVE increase in BTC valuation or computational power levels off for some reason, mining will become unprofitable for most people quite quickly.

Must we all play so fast and loose with the truth? 6 months ago there was almost no growth in computing power, then 2 months ago an explosion of computing power. Averaging nearly nothing with something huge to get a middle number is just sloppy. Try going back and looking at the root of why such things would occur.
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June 22, 2011, 06:20:02 PM
 #13

Must we all play so fast and loose with the truth? 6 months ago there was almost no growth in computing power, then 2 months ago an explosion of computing power. Averaging nearly nothing with something huge to get a middle number is just sloppy. Try going back and looking at the root of why such things would occur.

Media exposure
Increased BTC value
Vast availability of unused GPU cycles
Increased availability of GPU mining programs

Those are the roots.  Sure you can look back 1.5 years, but there was no GPU mining. Now there is.

There are no forecasted awesome GPU advances in the next 3 months.  So 2 months of 50% increases is both possible, and it is what we've been experiencing the last few cycles with the influx of the above points.

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talldude
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June 22, 2011, 07:00:24 PM
 #14

I just did some calculations for the hell of it, assuming a 50% growth rate in computing power (we've seen this for the last 6 months on average).

In a month (6500 blocks roughly given 9 days per 2000 blocks) given the above assumption, your current rig will earn only 30% of what it is earning now in terms of BTC.

In two months, it'll earn 7% of what it is currently earning.

In three months, it's going to earn a measly 1.7% of what it's earning now.

So unless we see a MASSIVE increase in BTC valuation or computational power levels off for some reason, mining will become unprofitable for most people quite quickly.

Must we all play so fast and loose with the truth? 6 months ago there was almost no growth in computing power, then 2 months ago an explosion of computing power. Averaging nearly nothing with something huge to get a middle number is just sloppy. Try going back and looking at the root of why such things would occur.

How about you go and look at the charts instead of spouting nonsense...

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June 22, 2011, 07:41:25 PM
 #15

A few days ago on here, someone was claiming to calculate the income of a 5830, and he calmly stated what a months' income would be -- based on 877K difficulty!

(Newsflash, bro: that difficulty level expires in LESS THAN TWO DAYS! Sorry to burst your bubble)

So you won't get more than 2 days income at this difficulty -- and then you can't count on 1.3M difficulty either, because that will only last 8 or 9 days...

Those monthly income projections are so stupid. That's why you have people wanting to sell/return their mining hardware -- when reality comes a-calling.


Ok, bra...so whats different about the 5830, or any other card, troll? Now you show up here harping on the 5830.

Difficulty increases are across the board, whether the new miner with one 4650, or the super miner with 20 rigs of 4x 6990s. Everyone will be affected the same.

Mining for block generation is for the long haul, and correlates with both difficulty and price. Both can go up, and down, Captain Obvious.


It's called efficiency.

You think every card has the same MH per watt?

Or that every rig uses the same number of watts to achieve a given MH? 

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June 22, 2011, 09:15:46 PM
 #16

A few days ago on here, someone was claiming to calculate the income of a 5830, and he calmly stated what a months' income would be -- based on 877K difficulty!

(Newsflash, bro: that difficulty level expires in LESS THAN TWO DAYS! Sorry to burst your bubble)

So you won't get more than 2 days income at this difficulty -- and then you can't count on 1.3M difficulty either, because that will only last 8 or 9 days...

Those monthly income projections are so stupid. That's why you have people wanting to sell/return their mining hardware -- when reality comes a-calling.


Ok, bra...so whats different about the 5830, or any other card, troll? Now you show up here harping on the 5830.

Difficulty increases are across the board, whether the new miner with one 4650, or the super miner with 20 rigs of 4x 6990s. Everyone will be affected the same.

Mining for block generation is for the long haul, and correlates with both difficulty and price. Both can go up, and down, Captain Obvious.


It's called efficiency.

You think every card has the same MH per watt?

Or that every rig uses the same number of watts to achieve a given MH? 



Have you? I didn't see anything in your original reply, nor any other troll-like replies you've submitted. Efficiency cracked in later replies (with some decent insight from others.) Besides, wasn't OP talking about block generation, not possible costs to get there or other inconsequential crap? I chimed in when I saw your troll-like behavior show up yet again and mention a 5830 card.

Reality is, crap tons of people got on the bandwagon, and they may or may not stay on it when it fords and flips in the Mighty Missip'. You trying to divinate that moment is fool-based theorycrafting.

Block generation will level out with the scope it's designed to, will decrease with reduction in computing power, and will accelerate with network growth. Second-order type variance will always screw with simple parameters.

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June 22, 2011, 11:08:02 PM
 #17

has anyone tried to calculate the point at which we will reach the 21 million btc limit with current rates of network growth?

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June 23, 2011, 12:10:10 AM
 #18

There are a lot of people here crying about the difficulty increases, but at the same time all the difficulty increases before haven't hurt profitability. The reason why is because they have been large enough to drive the price up.

Look at this post to get an understanding of the relationship between price, cost of mining equipment, and difficulty. The fact is that if the difficulty keeps rising, and the price does not go up, then people will stop buying rigs and bringing them online and the difficulty will level. But right now it makes too much sense to invest so people will keep doing so until it no longer makes sense.

Look at what happened on Black Sunday, people who bought rigs shit the bed and started dumping them. If they came upon the price of btc in the 5-10 range, they probably wouldn't have paid money to get in.

The people with rigs already with some portion paid for will have a window in which it makes sense to continue to mine. If demand really does fall out, then you can always sell your cards. This also presents a second wave of arbitrage as you can take the money from sold cards and buy btc with them (if you still want to transact).

Or maybe I should just kvetch and try to turn off new miners. I'm not sure what the protocol here is.
sir murray
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June 23, 2011, 12:44:04 AM
 #19

A few days ago on here, someone was claiming to calculate the income of a 5830, and he calmly stated what a months' income would be -- based on 877K difficulty!

(Newsflash, bro: that difficulty level expires in LESS THAN TWO DAYS! Sorry to burst your bubble)

So you won't get more than 2 days income at this difficulty -- and then you can't count on 1.3M difficulty either, because that will only last 8 or 9 days...

Those monthly income projections are so stupid. That's why you have people wanting to sell/return their mining hardware -- when reality comes a-calling.


Ok, bra...so whats different about the 5830, or any other card, troll? Now you show up here harping on the 5830.

Difficulty increases are across the board, whether the new miner with one 4650, or the super miner with 20 rigs of 4x 6990s. Everyone will be affected the same.

Mining for block generation is for the long haul, and correlates with both difficulty and price. Both can go up, and down, Captain Obvious.


Wow, fuck off, you troll. He wasn't even harping on the 5830. Did you read his post?


Quote

I chimed in when I saw your troll-like behavior show up yet again and mention a 5830 card.


He was posting facts and using the 5830(A POPULAR MINING CARD) as an example. His post was also related to the conversation going on.

You are trolling. Ban pls.
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June 23, 2011, 01:17:05 AM
 #20

I sure did. Seems like you didn't read either, nor did you look into the context of my claims.

And I don't have to curse to cross-examine...

Besides, what does your expert criticism say about OP...ohh yeah...it doesn't.
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