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Author Topic: Non-Verbal Analysis of statements by Mark and Adam (MtGox)  (Read 7110 times)
mouse
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June 23, 2011, 06:22:03 AM
 #61

The government put a man on the moon back when computers were fancy typewriters.

or did they!??!

'dun dun dun'

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June 23, 2011, 06:23:06 AM
 #62

The government put a man on the moon back when computers were fancy typewriters.

or did they!??!

'dun dun dun'

There's a mirror on the moon that you can shine light at and it comes back at you.
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June 23, 2011, 06:32:25 AM
 #63

I'm pretty sure the 500,000 bitcoins were theirs. I never had much doubt about that.

One question arises from this, should it be true that MtGox has 500,000 BTC (or whatever the amount) in their own exchange.

Is one actually allowed to trade on the exchange you own? If so, the person trading should not have access to anything than public info, otherwise, it is insider trading.

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June 23, 2011, 06:36:20 AM
 #64

Only if it's a very strong light, otherwise the odds are it will get absorbed on the way or back (or the photons will stray from target bouncing in the turbulent atmosphere and never hit the mirror or if they do they will miss the sensor on the way back)

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June 23, 2011, 04:17:23 PM
 #65

It is called the baseline. For example, when the question about MtGox's account is popped out triggers a series of gestures and microexpressions that aren't repeated ever again in the whole video.

I don't doubt that you are excellent at novelty detection.

It indicates that "something is going on", but we can't be certain the real reasons of that feeling.

Despite that, you seem to make some very direct claims.

Now I am 90% sure that the account was theirs.

When someone says they are 90% sure of something, they tend to be wrong much more than 10% of the time. A subjective percentage estimate tends to be strongly biased by "gut feeling", which tends not to mean shit in science. I would strongly recommend against using numerical estimates outside of hard science where you have actual numerical data to base such an estimate on. You have one single sample of a magic hand gesture. Your interpretation of this one sample is almost surely biased by the fact that you had already made a conclusion before this additional data became available.

Update - Jackpot: I just found a particular gesture that is equivalent to a non-verbal confession (Thanks Adam! ^^ ).

That is hilarious. You have concluded that a particular gesture made by a particular person that you haven't met, that you don't know the mental state of, and that you don't know the motives of, has an exact meaning.

My preliminary veredict: they have definitely something to hide (probably they directly fucked up and did something really stupid/embarrasing) and they don't want us to know, but they have good intentions, they seem to really have put measures to prevent the mistakes and toughen the system, and they are pretty much honest about the business.

The problem here is that, after all that effort analysing it, I could have easily made the same conclusion without watching the video at all. Of course they did something stupid, their fucking database got leaked. Of course they don't want you to know. Of course they're going to be honest about their business.

UPDATE: I found another very supporting sign related to it the MtGox Account, it made it earn a second "+"

Q: Who would keep 100K+ BTC in an online account?
A: Someone who trusts the site and is confident that it is secure.

Q: Who would actually trust Mt Gox, and who is in a position to assess its security?
A: The owner of Mt Gox.

I didn't even watch the video, and I already have a pretty good idea of who owned the account.
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June 24, 2011, 09:08:35 PM
 #66

FYI - I nod at everything. It's a habit I've picked up here in Japan from teaching english. Nodding at students as they literally piece sentences together shows I understand, and encourages students that would otherwise be shy/nervous when trying to express their thought or opinions. In the last 8 months I've been here I haven't met many english speakers, so 95% of the time I speak english it is with non-native speakers. I've found this mannerism has carried over. I also tend to over express everything with my face (I'm very aware of this) so I don't know how it would reflect in this kind of assessment. (I think it may distort, rather than amplify, judging from what you were able to puzzle together). By prescreening our reactions with information that may or may not be true, your assessment is at the mercy of your own confirmation bias. Its definitely was amusing to read however. Wink

Honestly the confirmation bias is not possible because before watching the interview I was actually burning you guys in a pillar, but after watching your interview I realized you guys were honest people who fucked up, but honest nevertheless. My opinion about you guys changed drastically.

Regarding to nodding a lot because of the culture, it doesn't really matter. There are several types of expressions, some are universal and others are culture-specific.
The universal ones are primarily based on emotional and physiological responses, the gestures related to the culture are learned and have specific meanings (For example: the A-OK gesture used in the US means literally "ass hole" in Brazil, "zero" or "money" in Japan and Korea, etc...).

If it seems to be complicated enough, this is just the beginning: you must add the context and the baseline: how often and in what situation you repeat certain gestures. If you cross your arms: is it because you are distancing yourself, you feel threatened or is it because it is cold?
If I detect a microexpression (which is involuntary facial expression in about 1/25th of a second, which reveals concealed emotions) I must ask what actually triggered it.

There are several other details that weights up in the final evaluation.
Up to here I talked only about non-verbal signs, there is a whole another world based on verbal analysis that I haven't mentioned.

Each sign might not be significant by themselves (although there are specific signs that are direct tell-tales of deception), but when factored all together, and if they support each other, the probability of being truthful is strengthened.
In emotion based deceits, when your verbal declaration and non-verbal expression contradicts each other, basically shows that you are being deceitful (simple examples: like saying you are confident with your shoulders crouched or saying you are happy with oblique eyebrows or without the contraction of the orbicularis oculi muscle)

Adam, when Mark talks about Mt.Gox's account your face is priceless. Your facial expressions goes haywire, and it is the only time in the whole interview where you actually had microexpressions.
Also, something you might not have realized is that you only nod if you agree with something, and thanks to your love to preciseness it becomes a tell-tale: If you had a "red" car and your student said it's "burgundy" you wouldn't nod, you would tilt your head sideways.

Cheers,
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June 25, 2011, 03:19:31 PM
 #67

How many of the accounts at MtGox were abandoned?  And what happens to the bitcoins that were in those accounts, since they presumably will not be claimed?

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