(This post is a spin-off of the reply to the post: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=20501.msg256086#msg256086
After watching this video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0XvP841jaM
I promised I would make a non-verbal analysis.
For those who are late to the party: I am a psychology major who has been studying non-verbal communication for a while.
For the fans of the TV series "Lie To Me": the science actually exists in the real world.
I studied the researches of the "real" Lightman, Paul Ekman, who is the pioneer in proving that facial expressions are universal (which was heavily contended by anthropologists before the revealing results of Ekman's research).
I am studying to certify myself in FACS which stands for "Facial Action Coding System" which is the first effort in the world to codify the facial expressions, also created by Paul Ekman (who is the direct inspiration for the creation of the TV series)
With this knowledge I decided to evaluate the video and analyze Dave's and Mark's facial expressions and body language.
The following analysis is purely based on behavioral and expression cues in the video.
The Truth/Lie should be read as "high probability of truth", and it is not a categorical affirmation.
Some signs are ambiguous and need verbal confirmation (basically lie/truth analysis consists on coherence of verbal and non-verbal expressions)
Some special gestures can by themselves tell with high confidence if it is a deception, depending on the context.
I will separate both with + and - signs as level of confidence.
ie.: "+Truth" would be pretty high confidence of being truth. "-Truth" probably truth but lower confidence signs. -Lie: probable lie, but low confidence. +Lie: high confidence that it is a probable lie.
Ambiguous but worth "note taking" signs will be tagged with "?"
Also, something important I must mention is that not detecting signs of deception might mean that they are telling the truth, but it doesn't guarentee it.
I will not detail the rationale behind the analysis was performed as it would take me a whole essay to explain each assessment.
These assessments are backed up by current academic research in non-verbal communication.
I reiterate, this is backed up by science.
This analysis IS NOT based on Neuro-linguistic programming (NLP is Pseudoscience!)
If it is relevant, I will also list the emotional states revealed by gestures and facial expressions, some of them might be obvious to you, some others might not.
Also, understand that this analysis is not exhaustive. Every time I rewatch it I notice something new, but I am time constrained so I'll be focused mainly to their statement about Mt.Gox Account. (it is really time consuming, since I need to watch the whole hour video to see the baseline expressions to detect the "anomalous" expressions)
An accurate assessment requires a team of two or three persons doing it independently to confirm the observations.
Now lets begin:
Mark Karpeles: Owner of MtGox
Adam Barr: Mark's Partner (He's an open book, he should never play poker lol)
Bruce Wagner: Interviewer (Check how many times he says "MHM-MMM Okay" when doesn't give a shit/doesn't understand lol)
Mark isn't Satoshi.-?
: he might had been in contact with Satoshi
Adam doesn't believe that the leaked accounts are "wide open". (Probably Adam is thinking that FreeBSD MD5 is not "precisely" plaintext)
: They reported it to the japanese police.
09:55+No signs of deception detected:
regarding to the new server, more security, from scratch and new "state of the art technique".+?
: The main reason why they keep the old system is NOT "precisely" for investigative purposes only.
: new system built in-house
: They do keep transaction logs
One Account compromised++"Hacked" Account belonged to Mt.Gox?Very
Detected disconformity microexpression in Adam. Also significant macroexpressions in Adam, who presses his lips for the first time; it might be interpreted as "I can't talk about it" and/or imply frustration/repressing emotions.
With what we have so far, I am inclined to believe that it was either Adam's account or the account was under Adam's responsability
. (this might be a long shot... but I have a good scope! LOL)
This idea is supported when Mark starts his answer by laughing and looking at Adam out of the corner of his eye. Adam suddenly gets his eyes teary, glances away and bursts several microexpressions, repeating once more time a disconformity microexpression.
Probably Mark bitched a lot about it.Update - Jackpot
: I just found a particular gesture that is equivalent to a non-verbal confession
(Thanks Adam! ^^ ).
Now I am "90%"
(read as extremely confident) sure that the account was theirs.
: Not prosecuting Kevin (until they find any solid proof)+Truth
: they don't want
to compensate Kevin (no shit, right? lol)
: Whoa, Mark flashes a beauuutiful partial microexpression that reveals concealed DISGUST towards the idea of compensating Kevin. (LOL)
: Bruce Wagner asks: The hacker had complete access to the system for 3 days, then he adds "That's gonna come out later". Both Mark and Dave basically say with their heads: "mmm... I don't think so"
: they can guarantee that the bitcoins and USD will be in the accounts when the system comes back and they are able to log in.
: Adam's facial expression allows us to predict Mark's answer. When Bruce asks: "...or are you gonna ask them to return them..." Dave makes a quick and short nod saying yes.
Mark ends up explaining that those who don't return the withdrawn bitcoins will get a negative balance in MtGox. (nice, lol)
: About not being contacted by any legal authority.
: Mark seems to flash sadness when Dave explains about the people losing trust in MtGox. Weird eyebrows movement though, can't confirm.
: When Bruce asks about "if it is a good idea locking the market price" and forcing price of the market. When Mark responds that they have no authority of manipulating the market which seem to be true, but when Bruce adds "well... that makes sense it's a free market, that's the whole idea", both Mark and Dave are unconvinced about it, nevertheless they nod saying yes.
Probably they think the free market is not
really a good idea, but they are forced to do it anyway.
: There is a LOT going on there but I need more time to dissect it carefully and interpret it properly. I don't see any clear sign of anything, but there is something doesn't quite feel right.
When Dave says: "We've been advised not to really mention any names right now" seems to be bullshit.
When Mark says that they want to be sure this never happens again seems to be honest.
I'll re-watch this part later.
(sorry guys, I am exhausted)
: probably truth that they don't know much about bitcoin7My preliminary veredict
: they have definitely something to hide (probably they directly fucked up and did something really stupid/embarrasing) and they don't want us to know, but they have good intentions, they seem to really have put measures to prevent the mistakes and toughen the system, and they are pretty much honest about the business.
This is all by now, I might review it later.
PS1: My nick is not "bits-a-lame", it is "bit-salame", which in Spanish and Portuguese means "Bit Salami".
PS2: My general feeling is that I might trust in MtGox again, but they really need to get someone to take care of their PR, seriously.
UPDATE: I found another very supporting sign related to it the MtGox Account, it made it earn a second "+"