$5000+ bitcoin?

[MarkLyford]

I think the feeling that came from the weekend was that bitcoin may become more of a reserve currency, for big trades etc.

[realdos]

$5000 is a long shot. Judging from the price log scale, bitcoin will be 1000$ by the end of year. When do you think bitcoin will reach $1000 ?

September.

I think 1000 is a more reasonable guess by the end of this year. There must be more bitcoin service and app launched to support the unit price.

[Its About Sharing]

mp420

Current Bitcoin can't be sustainably much over $400.

Justification: the 1MB block size limit and the fact that the price has pretty much grown hand in hand with the number of transactions per block (in the long time trend). We have free transactions now (for old enough coins). Eventually a minimum transaction fee for ANY transaction will be several dollars, when the block space scarcity really starts to constrict usage. If BTC adoption grows at the current rate, in a couple of years this scenario is going to be real. This will mean, by the way, that the block subsidy will be insignificant far sooner than most people think. At 20,000 tx/block and $1 fee per tx, assuming $400/BTC and current reward level, fees will be two thirds of total miner revenue.

I do not expect doing away with the block size limit until we've seen its economic consequences. Many influential people have gotten stuck in early 2011 and the "everyone must be able to run a full node in their cell phone" mindset.

This is really interesting. Where can we verify this information easily?

Even if that trend is true, I would think supply and demand would set the price as a commodity. As BTC gets more use as a transaction/purchase means, then perhaps the point you mention would be more true?

Thanks for the post,
IAS

note - Mods - When I tried quoting the above text with the quote button in the original post it said to log out and back in again. I just clicked reply and manually inserted the quote that way. Weird???

[antimattercrusader]

Infrastructure will limit the price. As demand increases, price will rise. Assuming the increase in demand is correlated with an increase in the actual network usage (sending txs), there will be an eventual increase in tx fees. Even assuming the average cost for getting a tx through in reasonable time remains at 0.5 mBTC, I don't think users will accept fees of anything much higher than 5% on transactions. Let's say the minimum value in USD we want to send through the network is $5 (cup of coffee?), end users are likely to balk at transmission fees higher than $.25, which would be equivalent to 1 mBTC = $0.50, or 1BTC = $500. At least in the short term, I don't think the ninfrastructure will support prices over this level because new users will start balking at the cost of sending a tx.

Of course, that is a lot of assumptions, but generall sustained higher prices means higher network traffic, which is ultimately limited by physical network speeds and ability for miners to process and include txs. The recent updates to bar small transactions support that conclusion also.

If this statement is correct, then I think infrastructure absolutly will limit adoption and price. I feel a 5% ($0.25) fee is unacceptable in real world transactions at least for small purchases, this is similar to or more than what we currently have to pay massive and inefficient banks. I see no reason why it should require 5% of transaction value to sustain the network. IMO, bitcoin will innovate to improve this or will succome to some other payment solution.

All that said, I have strong faith bitcoin will indeed innovate and we will see a strong future.

[wolverine.ks]

remove the block size limit.  fees will drop to whatever people are willing to spend. add more precision to the protocol.

[wolverine.ks]

I don't think it will ever hit $5000

I sure hope I'm wrong though.

[antimattercrusader]

remove the block size limit.  fees will drop to whatever people are willing to spend. add more precision to the protocol.

Why is this not done/considered an option that most ppl expect will happen?

[Prattler]

http://keepbitcoinfree.org/

[antimattercrusader]

http://keepbitcoinfree.org/

Great info, thanks.

[jubalix]

Let's do some math. 3600 new coins mined a day (for next 3 years) at $5000 per bitcoin would mean that network operation would cost $18 000 000 daily. Is it likely? I think not.

umm no, why would it cost this to run?

the miners would be making a profit, its not as if power/asics and gpus cost 10x once you have them. Further new hash can't be added that quickly to spend.

only a fraction of the 3600 will need to be sold

[jubalix]

Yes more the demand.. But you have to use the currency to buy stuff for it to be sustainable in the long run.. frankly people are expecting a huge rally somewhere in the future so that they can cash out. fiat.. i mean the whole idea of bitcoin was to get rid of banksters and their manipulated fiat.. kinda defeats the purpose of the whole thing when you convert coins back to fiat.. well its my personal opinion and most people tend to disagree with it..

well no, say price goes up to 10K a bitcoin.

All of a sudden I can spend many fractions of a bitcoin to buy lots of stuff, while being able to hold other bitcoins. I posit the higher it goes the more spending you will see, because BTC will have more buying power.

[Hawker]

I have a friend of mine at the conference this weekend and he has been speaking to a few people who think a $5000 + bitcoin could be possible.

Thoughts ?

$5000 assumes that Bitcoin doesn't really get adopted outside the Silk Road and online gambling worlds.  If it does start getting "legitimate" use and is widely adopted in even a small country, you would be looking at many times that. 

[600watt]

Yes more the demand.. But you have to use the currency to buy stuff for it to be sustainable in the long run.. frankly people are expecting a huge rally somewhere in the future so that they can cash out. fiat.. i mean the whole idea of bitcoin was to get rid of banksters and their manipulated fiat.. kinda defeats the purpose of the whole thing when you convert coins back to fiat.. well its my personal opinion and most people tend to disagree with it..

well no, say price goes up to 10K a bitcoin.

All of a sudden I can spend many fractions of a bitcoin to buy lots of stuff, while being able to hold other bitcoins. I posit the higher it goes the more spending you will see, because BTC will have more buying power.

agreed.
people like to spend way more than they like to safe. buying with bitcoins is even more fun (as long as you bought them cheaper) you keep telling yourself that you could actually not afford this, but... hell, it costs so much less because of the value gain of bitcoin. it´s like getting constant bargains. soon enough you start spending more coins that you have actually bought cheap. bitcoin is THE BEST excuse for shopping..

[kokojie]

I have a friend of mine at the conference this weekend and he has been speaking to a few people who think a $5000 + bitcoin could be possible.

Thoughts ?

It's possible eventually, but I don't think until the next halving at least.

[realdos]

Does anyone still believe this is gonna happen by the end of 2013, after the stagnation of May?

[romerun]

There needs to be Gox alternatives that ppl can send USD in, to buy coins and hold good liquidity. Now, if my mom want to buy bitcoin, I have no damn clue how to get it. Since, there's no easy USD pumping into Gox from dwolla, the price can't go up, but I'm sure the demand is there.

When ppl exchange bitcoin thru localbitcoin, it does not reflex price on exchanges.

[just_me]

Bitcoins may rise or fall in value.

I recently have been collecting these Goldcoins and each Goldcoin only costs me fractions of a penny.
I think Goldcoin will have much larger percentage gains than bitcoin will have.

gldtalk.org  - Goldcoin forum

[xetsu]

I feel this depends on how well adopted bitcoins become. At the moment, I don't think bitcoins can reach mass adoption like credit cards because of problems with blockchain size, and TPS limit. Also, Frankly, and sadly, I just feel the average person can't be hassled to deal with bitcoins. People can't even take control of their health, day to day finances, and debts and now you expect people to safely secure their bitcoins, spend time getting verified, moving money and buying bitcoins? If there's one thing that credit card company's did right is they made it easy for people (at least in comparison to bitcoins or cash) to secure and transfer their money, while at the same time extending credit. Lose your CC? call the company they can get it deactivated. identity theft? most companies will refund. Need points, cashbacks, rewards, Cash withdrawal around the globe? we got you. Heck I don't even bother with cash most of the time unless I'm going to chinatown (those guys are always cash only, maybe bitcoins would work for them?)  because the convenience of using a credit card is just that much higher

The other argument is over anonymity. In most cases anonymity is pretty overrated. While I want my purchases and transactions to be private, I also don't want my money to not be under my name or traceable when stolen. Just like you wouldn't keep thousands off dollars in cash under your mattress, but instead rather have the bank hold it in your name, where consumer protection laws can help a great deal to alleviate any crises, you wouldn't want to keep thousands of dollars in such a manner where they can't be effectively traced back to you.

Ultimately, even though I love bitcoins, I wouldn't see myself using it to buy items which break easily, such as electronics, or for large purchases, like airplane tickets, cars, electronics, nice dinners etc. using a card gives me more flexibility, rewards, and consumer protection. 2.5% is a small fee to pay to get all these advantages ( I pay everything with credit card and just pay it cash at the end of the month, the benefits are just too good to pass up).

The other argument is over anonymity. In most cases anonymity is pretty overrated. While I want my purchases and transactions to be private, I also don't want my money to not be under my name or traceable when stolen. Just like you wouldn't keep thousands off dollars in cash under your mattress, but instead rather have the bank hold it in your name, having tons of bit coins, whether in an offline wallet or otherwise, leaves it with little way of connecting the bitcoins to you.


I guess what I mean to say is, bit coins, and its current state, just isn't scaleable and as convenient to use as other forms of purchasing.

So what do I think bitcoins are good for? I think bit coins is good for large transactions or transactions where anonymity is crucial or transactions where being able to dispute payment is high. Of course instead of trusting your credit card company to handle in any issue, one of the persons in the transaction would have to go first , so trust is not in a large organization which can have tons of reputation on the line.  

Overall. Bit coin is a currency that fits a very  specific niche and is, as many have already said, and experiment, one that has highlighted how dated and cumbersome banking currently is. Hopefully, banks around the world find a way to standardize transfers and make the available 24/7 within the next 10-20 years. If banking systems cannot catch up to the current globalized 24/7 high paced, instant communication world we live, then maybe, maybe do I see bitcoins becoming worth 1000$+

[HappyBitCoinUser]

I have a friend of mine at the conference this weekend and he has been speaking to a few people who think a $5000 + bitcoin could be possible.

Thoughts ?

Stop making these retarded unrealistic post about $5k or $1M BTC.

[maco]

Speculations are only Speculations without theory.

I have a friend of mine at the conference this weekend and he has been speaking to a few people who think a $5000 + bitcoin could be possible.

Thoughts ?

Stop making these retarded unrealistic post about $5k or $1M BTC.