Why will GPU mining be useless? Difficulty/Price relations?

[Gamah]

All this talk I see of the difficulty going up to 100+ million and that ASIC's will bring GPU's daily reward down by many factors of 10/etc are really confusing me... Isn't it pretty safe to assume that due to the mass increase of $$$ put into "strengthing" (not speeding up, the difficulty adjust will maintain the same speed more or less) the network give us at least a somewhat linear change in BTC trade value? I don't expect it to level out overnight, surely as ASIC's come online the GPU $$$ daily reward will seem to go to shit, but 5-6 months down the road if BTC is at $500/coin (which is a prediction nobody can deny or confirm) will the GPU guys really have missed the boat?

Why do I think the price will rise? because the increase in hashrate will make BTC be that much more "scarce."


Flame suit: ON!

[mgio]

Bitcoin price has no correlation to mining difficulty whatsoever.

Bitcoin will not become more scarce. There still will be 3,600 coins mined a day for the next 3+ years until the block reward halves again.

[Gamah]

Why then has the price been climbing pretty steadily? (ignoring the bubble from last month of course)

[stslimited]

Why then has the price been climbing pretty steadily? (ignoring the bubble from last month of course)

because of demand greater than the supply

[Gamah]

And increating the hash rate doesn't increase the demand?

[TheOrri]

And increating the hash rate doesn't increase the demand?

Increasing the Hashrate will increase the supply which normally lowers prices, but as bitcions are accepted at more places everyday, demand increases which has an upward effect on the price.

[Dyaheon]

And increating the hash rate doesn't increase the demand?

Not really, no. Sure it'll make bitcoin more secure against govt ASIC attacks, but that won't really translate to more demand, as it's a pretty unlikely scenario anyway. So no, price won't go up just because difficulty will.

[Gamah]

And increating the hash rate doesn't increase the demand?

Increasing the Hashrate will increase the supply which normally lowers prices, but as bitcions are accepted at more places everyday, demand increases which has an upward effect on the price.

No, I'm pretty sure the difficulty adjustment is to secure the supply at a fixed rate, it's built that way.

I still stand by my hypothesis that more hash rate means more demand because there are more hashes (depend) being put into each block found... thus making each bitcoin effectively more scarce... While the rate of generation is constant, the effort put into them is far greater.

Where block/hour remains fairly constant, hash per block goes up.

Difficulty 10,000,000.

~90Thash (pulling numbers out my ass) = the preferred 10 mins/block

where at difficulty 50,000,000

450 Thash = 10mins/block

When you break it down, each has nets you less of a bitcoin... irregardless of power usage/efficiencies. That alone I do believe (especially considering the numerous users who don't even mine, but just trade BTC) will drive the overall price of BTC up.

[kendog77]

If you asked people a year ago if GPU mining would be dead in May 2013, most of them would probably have said yes. Of course, they had no way to know that a bitcoin would increase 10x to over $100 per coin.

Could the price of a single bitcoin go up over 10x to over $1000 per coin by May 2014? It's possible and may keep GPU mining viable, so without knowing the future price of bitcoin or future difficulty levels, it's a complete crapshoot, and your guess is as good as mine.

Personally, if I think I can make back my hardware investment in 3 months or less, I buy more hardware. If not, I wait.

ASICs are few and far between, and given the outrageous prices they are selling for and likely 6+ month ROI, I'm not buying.  

[mgio]

Even if bitcoin goes to $10k or more a coin, it doesn't mean GPU mining will be worthwhile if ASICs are readily available and much cheaper than GPUs.

[kendog77]

Even if bitcoin goes to $10k or more a coin, it doesn't mean GPU mining will be worthwhile if ASICs are readily available and much cheaper than GPUs.

ASICs hardware manufacturers have zero incentive to sell ASICs hardware for less then they think they can make from using the devices themselves.

Thus far, with the exception of Avalon batch 1, they haven't sold ASIC hardware for less then they think they can mine for themselves.

ASICMiner is abusing the heck out of the bitcoin community because they can (13 GHs blades are 50 BTC, and 300 MHs USB miners are 2 BTC) and have little to no competition at the moment.

I hope we'll see the day where ASICs are readily available for reasonable prices, but that day seems very far away at the moment...

[YipYip]

And increating the hash rate doesn't increase the demand?

Increasing the Hashrate will increase the supply which normally lowers prices, but as bitcions are accepted at more places everyday, demand increases which has an upward effect on the price.

No, I'm pretty sure the difficulty adjustment is to secure the supply at a fixed rate, it's built that way.

I still stand by my hypothesis that more hash rate means more demand because there are more hashes (depend) being put into each block found... thus making each bitcoin effectively more scarce... While the rate of generation is constant, the effort put into them is far greater.

Where block/hour remains fairly constant, hash per block goes up.

Difficulty 10,000,000.

~90Thash (pulling numbers out my ass) = the preferred 10 mins/block

where at difficulty 50,000,000

450 Thash = 10mins/block

When you break it down, each has nets you less of a bitcoin... irregardless of power usage/efficiencies. That alone I do believe (especially considering the numerous users who don't even mine, but just trade BTC) will drive the overall price of BTC up.

Good I agree totally DONT BUY GPU's !!!!!

Is a done deal u will lose money !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Also I just bought 25x 7950's and are getting another 30 in about 2 weeks so I dont wont u drying up my supply .....lol

[mgio]

And increating the hash rate doesn't increase the demand?

Increasing the Hashrate will increase the supply which normally lowers prices, but as bitcions are accepted at more places everyday, demand increases which has an upward effect on the price.

No, I'm pretty sure the difficulty adjustment is to secure the supply at a fixed rate, it's built that way.

I still stand by my hypothesis that more hash rate means more demand because there are more hashes (depend) being put into each block found... thus making each bitcoin effectively more scarce... While the rate of generation is constant, the effort put into them is far greater.

Where block/hour remains fairly constant, hash per block goes up.

Difficulty 10,000,000.

~90Thash (pulling numbers out my ass) = the preferred 10 mins/block

where at difficulty 50,000,000

450 Thash = 10mins/block

When you break it down, each has nets you less of a bitcoin... irregardless of power usage/efficiencies. That alone I do believe (especially considering the numerous users who don't even mine, but just trade BTC) will drive the overall price of BTC up.

Why do you think effort put into mining a bitcoin has anything to do with it's price??

It's the other way around. Higher prices mean mining is more profitable so more people will mine. It's the other way around.

Plus bitcoins aren't more expensive to mine now. A 65 gh/s cost $1500, that is equivalent of a GPU that does maybe 4.5 gh/s. Mining has gotten cheaper, not more expensive.

[kendog77]

And increating the hash rate doesn't increase the demand?

Increasing the Hashrate will increase the supply which normally lowers prices, but as bitcions are accepted at more places everyday, demand increases which has an upward effect on the price.

No, I'm pretty sure the difficulty adjustment is to secure the supply at a fixed rate, it's built that way.

I still stand by my hypothesis that more hash rate means more demand because there are more hashes (depend) being put into each block found... thus making each bitcoin effectively more scarce... While the rate of generation is constant, the effort put into them is far greater.

Where block/hour remains fairly constant, hash per block goes up.

Difficulty 10,000,000.

~90Thash (pulling numbers out my ass) = the preferred 10 mins/block

where at difficulty 50,000,000

450 Thash = 10mins/block

When you break it down, each has nets you less of a bitcoin... irregardless of power usage/efficiencies. That alone I do believe (especially considering the numerous users who don't even mine, but just trade BTC) will drive the overall price of BTC up.

Why do you think effort put into mining a bitcoin has anything to do with it's price??

It's the other way around. Higher prices mean mining is more profitable so more people will mine. It's the other way around.

Plus bitcoins aren't more expensive to mine now. A 65 gh/s cost $1500, that is equivalent of a GPU that does maybe 4.5 gh/s. Mining has gotten cheaper, not more expensive.

Please show me where I can order a 65 GHs ASIC miner for $1500 that will ship immediately? In order to secure a 65 GHs ASIC miner at the moment, I think it will cost you 250 BTC (5 blades * 50 BTC each = 65 GHs for 250 BTC = $30,000 USD)! 

[Gamah]

I have no doubts the ASIC miners will turn larger profits, but I don't think it will negate GPU mining at all..

The jump from CPU -> GPU in terms of hash rate (not effeciency) was almost literally 100 fold... the jump from GPU's to ASIC's is looking to be only about 10 fold.

In that a ~$300 cpu would get you ~5mhash OC'd to the max, a ~$300 video card would get you ~500mhash OC'd to the max, and these new ~$300 ASIC miners will only get you 5000mhash. In terms from the step up from CPU's it almost seems like a rip off... BTC's price saw a steady jump with the advent of GPU mining as it became more difficult and more $ was invested per btc turned out, in spite of the fact that BTC was still churned out at the same rate.... I think we will see the same with ASIC's.

[mgio]

And increating the hash rate doesn't increase the demand?

Increasing the Hashrate will increase the supply which normally lowers prices, but as bitcions are accepted at more places everyday, demand increases which has an upward effect on the price.

No, I'm pretty sure the difficulty adjustment is to secure the supply at a fixed rate, it's built that way.

I still stand by my hypothesis that more hash rate means more demand because there are more hashes (depend) being put into each block found... thus making each bitcoin effectively more scarce... While the rate of generation is constant, the effort put into them is far greater.

Where block/hour remains fairly constant, hash per block goes up.

Difficulty 10,000,000.

~90Thash (pulling numbers out my ass) = the preferred 10 mins/block

where at difficulty 50,000,000

450 Thash = 10mins/block

When you break it down, each has nets you less of a bitcoin... irregardless of power usage/efficiencies. That alone I do believe (especially considering the numerous users who don't even mine, but just trade BTC) will drive the overall price of BTC up.

Why do you think effort put into mining a bitcoin has anything to do with it's price??

It's the other way around. Higher prices mean mining is more profitable so more people will mine. It's the other way around.

Plus bitcoins aren't more expensive to mine now. A 65 gh/s cost $1500, that is equivalent of a GPU that does maybe 4.5 gh/s. Mining has gotten cheaper, not more expensive.

Please show me where I can order a 65 GHs ASIC miner for $1500 that will ship immediately? In order to secure a 65 GHs ASIC miner at the moment, I think it will cost you 250 BTC (5 blades * 50 BTC each = 65 GHs for 250 BTC = $30,000 USD)! 

You can't buy it because you missed out. When Avalon ships batch 3, there will be 100 TH/s of Avalon machines out there.

Or you can buy discrete Avalon chips for about $9.50 for 282 Mh/s. That is $2200 per 65 GH/s. Even taking into account cost of the PCB and power supply, that is still in the same range.

Or you could have ordered BFL for about $1300 / 60GHs.

ASICMiner is more expensive, but it's only for the people who have missed out. Their prices will come down when the Avalon chips ship and you see DIY Avalon machines anywhere.

[Kluge]

Even if bitcoin goes to $10k or more a coin, it doesn't mean GPU mining will be worthwhile if ASICs are readily available and much cheaper than GPUs.

ASICs hardware manufacturers have zero incentive to sell ASICs hardware for less then they think they can make from using the devices themselves.

Thus far, with the exception of Avalon batch 1, they haven't sold ASIC hardware for less then they think they can mine for themselves.

ASICMiner is abusing the heck out of the bitcoin community because they can (13 GHs blades are 50 BTC, and 300 MHs USB miners are 2 BTC) and have little to no competition at the moment.

I hope we'll see the day where ASICs are readily available for reasonable prices, but that day seems very far away at the moment...

They do indeed have incentive to sell -- particularly, to pre-sell. Designing and fabricating ASIC hardware costs months and millions, and Bitcoin is a pretty tiny market. I think it's an "avg" block mining duration of 20m, right? 25BTC*3=75BTC/hr*24=1800BTC/day. Multiply by current BTC price ($120-ish), and you get $216k/day. It's a pretty small market, and not too many people are going to want to make multi-million thrive-or-die bets on producing a boat-load of ASICs -- certainly not hardware manufacturers. Allowing pre-orders (whether the hardware or allowing would-be consumers to purchase equity in the company) is one of a small handfuls of way these designers/manufacturers have any shot in Hell of being able to produce these devices.

Consumers basically get a discount for extending a loan to the company, and we've seen how that is good, and most prominently in BFL's case, how that can be very bad. In the near future, if manufacturers can just snap their fingers and have 100TH/s of ASICs within a week without needing third-party financing, then they'd have no incentive to sell for a rate that's profitable both for manufacturer and consumer.

[kendog77]

And increating the hash rate doesn't increase the demand?

Increasing the Hashrate will increase the supply which normally lowers prices, but as bitcions are accepted at more places everyday, demand increases which has an upward effect on the price.

No, I'm pretty sure the difficulty adjustment is to secure the supply at a fixed rate, it's built that way.

I still stand by my hypothesis that more hash rate means more demand because there are more hashes (depend) being put into each block found... thus making each bitcoin effectively more scarce... While the rate of generation is constant, the effort put into them is far greater.

Where block/hour remains fairly constant, hash per block goes up.

Difficulty 10,000,000.

~90Thash (pulling numbers out my ass) = the preferred 10 mins/block

where at difficulty 50,000,000

450 Thash = 10mins/block

When you break it down, each has nets you less of a bitcoin... irregardless of power usage/efficiencies. That alone I do believe (especially considering the numerous users who don't even mine, but just trade BTC) will drive the overall price of BTC up.

Why do you think effort put into mining a bitcoin has anything to do with it's price??

It's the other way around. Higher prices mean mining is more profitable so more people will mine. It's the other way around.

Plus bitcoins aren't more expensive to mine now. A 65 gh/s cost $1500, that is equivalent of a GPU that does maybe 4.5 gh/s. Mining has gotten cheaper, not more expensive.

Please show me where I can order a 65 GHs ASIC miner for $1500 that will ship immediately? In order to secure a 65 GHs ASIC miner at the moment, I think it will cost you 250 BTC (5 blades * 50 BTC each = 65 GHs for 250 BTC = $30,000 USD)!  

You can't buy it because you missed out. When Avalon ships batch 3, there will be 100 TH/s of Avalon machines out there.

Or you can buy discrete Avalon chips for about $9.50 for 282 Mh/s. That is $2200 per 65 GH/s. Even taking into account cost of the PCB and power supply, that is still in the same range.

Or you could have ordered BFL for about $1300 / 60GHs.

ASICMiner is more expensive, but it's only for the people who have missed out. Their prices will come down when the Avalon chips ship and you see DIY Avalon machines anywhere.

Bullshit.

Avalon batch 3 isn't shipping yet, and they cost 75 BTC (~$9000). Given that batch 2 is just now shipping, it looks like batch 3 owners still have to wait a few weeks.

It is a big jump from buying discrete Avalon chips to getting a working ASIC miner. Has anyone actually done this yet besides Avalon? I think not.

BFL has yet to ship a 60 GHs machine to anyone. As far as I know, all they have done is shipped a handful of 5 GHs machines.

[mgio]

And increating the hash rate doesn't increase the demand?

Increasing the Hashrate will increase the supply which normally lowers prices, but as bitcions are accepted at more places everyday, demand increases which has an upward effect on the price.

No, I'm pretty sure the difficulty adjustment is to secure the supply at a fixed rate, it's built that way.

I still stand by my hypothesis that more hash rate means more demand because there are more hashes (depend) being put into each block found... thus making each bitcoin effectively more scarce... While the rate of generation is constant, the effort put into them is far greater.

Where block/hour remains fairly constant, hash per block goes up.

Difficulty 10,000,000.

~90Thash (pulling numbers out my ass) = the preferred 10 mins/block

where at difficulty 50,000,000

450 Thash = 10mins/block

When you break it down, each has nets you less of a bitcoin... irregardless of power usage/efficiencies. That alone I do believe (especially considering the numerous users who don't even mine, but just trade BTC) will drive the overall price of BTC up.

Why do you think effort put into mining a bitcoin has anything to do with it's price??

It's the other way around. Higher prices mean mining is more profitable so more people will mine. It's the other way around.

Plus bitcoins aren't more expensive to mine now. A 65 gh/s cost $1500, that is equivalent of a GPU that does maybe 4.5 gh/s. Mining has gotten cheaper, not more expensive.

Please show me where I can order a 65 GHs ASIC miner for $1500 that will ship immediately? In order to secure a 65 GHs ASIC miner at the moment, I think it will cost you 250 BTC (5 blades * 50 BTC each = 65 GHs for 250 BTC = $30,000 USD)!  

You can't buy it because you missed out. When Avalon ships batch 3, there will be 100 TH/s of Avalon machines out there.

Or you can buy discrete Avalon chips for about $9.50 for 282 Mh/s. That is $2200 per 65 GH/s. Even taking into account cost of the PCB and power supply, that is still in the same range.

Or you could have ordered BFL for about $1300 / 60GHs.

ASICMiner is more expensive, but it's only for the people who have missed out. Their prices will come down when the Avalon chips ship and you see DIY Avalon machines anywhere.

Bullshit.

Avalon batch 3 isn't shipping yet, and they cost 75 BTC (~$9000). Given that batch 2 is just now shipping, it looks like batch 3 owners still have to wait a few weeks.

It is a big jump from buying discrete Avalon chips to getting a working ASIC miner. Has anyone actually done this yet besides Avalon? I think not.

BFL has yet to ship a 60 GHs machine to anyone. As far as I know, all they have done is shipped a handful of 5 GHs machines.

It's not as hard as you think to make an ASIC miner with Avalon chips. And a lot of people are working on it.

Once Avalon batch 3 ships and BFL begins to ship in quantities, and ASICMiner deploys the 200TH/s worth of mining equipment they have, you'll see ASIC prices come way down because it won't be profitable anymore. GPU mining will be long dead by then. As dead as CPU mining has been for a while now.

[KS]

GPU's will be good for a while still. New GPUs can still be paid for in 4-8 months.

After that, it will depend on your utility prices and the BTC exchange rate.

Contrary to what was said earlier, there is (currently) a very good correlation between difficulty and BTC exchange rate. That means that, even though GPU's will mine a lot less BTC, the BTC will be worth more in fiat terms and this will probably offset the dip in BTC mined (so you can still pay your bills and keep your GPUs running).

This is of course an educated guess, as everything is in flux...