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Author Topic: From reddit: MtGox might have lost control to the majority of their BTC deposit  (Read 4255 times)
kokojie
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June 22, 2011, 03:26:17 PM
 #1

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/i4xgc/follow_the_money_trail_part_2_1500btc_generated/

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>>Note new email flaxceed@tormail.org<<


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June 22, 2011, 03:31:08 PM
 #2

NOW things are getting interesting. 

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June 22, 2011, 03:35:46 PM
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Even more evidence that this is gonna end in a bank run when mtgox reopens and the price of btc plummets to nothing, sadly.
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June 22, 2011, 03:37:26 PM
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So.. if mtgox moves 432,000 BTC around, that proves that he has control of them, sure.  But how does that restore any confidence in his banking website, which is repeatedly shown to be vulnerable in terms of security?

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June 22, 2011, 03:38:52 PM
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who cares, just withdraw as fast as you can, and you'll be fine.

It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

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June 22, 2011, 03:47:52 PM
 #6

Another possible explanation for this:

Many of us suspect that MtGox is short some bitcoin as a result of the hack.  Between the start of the hack/abnormal trading and closing his doors, at least some BTC were allowed to be withdrawn.  There is no guarantee he will get them back.  Until his accounts are whole, he is effectively practicing fractional reserve banking: a funny irony given the ideological underpinnings of Bitcoin.

Who holds those ancient bitcoins?  Probably some old guard.  Think of them as being kept in reserve for a catastrophe.  This is somewhat of a catastrophe.  I could easily see Mark calling in a favor from "Satoshi" or friends to make up the shortfall.  There's your 1,500 BTC.

Edit: fixed amount
kokojie
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June 22, 2011, 03:48:26 PM
 #7

who cares, just withdraw as fast as you can, and you'll be fine.

If MtGox has indeed lost control to their BTC deposit, it'll be impossible to withdraw any BTC, or possibly the first few withdraws might be successful if MtGox pays out of their own pocket (which is pretty deep considering they were making $30k worth of BTC per day). So I guess your advice is correct, withdraw as fast as you could and don't get left behind  Grin

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June 22, 2011, 04:02:05 PM
 #8

Quote
MagicalTux, if you're reading this: you absolutely need to restore consumer confidence by performing a simple transaction to show that you are actually still in control of your BTC.

Sounds like doing this would take 1 min and could boost morale 1,000 fold.

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June 22, 2011, 04:25:37 PM
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hmm: April 2009 , isn't that the very begining of bitcoins ? like the 1st month or so ?

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June 22, 2011, 04:41:14 PM
 #10

There is one more plausible explanation that the author hasn't considered:

mtgox regularly moves coins from ancient mining addresses to newer ones.

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June 22, 2011, 04:57:31 PM
 #11

Saw this comment:
Quote
Another possible explanation: someone just deposited funds into mtgox. After shutting down the site, magicaltux secured these new funds manually into the new wallet
My theory: I believe the hacker compromised a random account, added arbitrary number of bitcoins (500k) to this account through SQL injection, and them sold them off. If this is true, the goal was probably just crashing the market - the hacker could easily just make multiple accounts with fake BTC balances and then withdraw them...

This seems much more likely.  I believe mtgox still controls the 400k+ btc.  Mtgox could prove to everyone he owns the wallet by announcing an address and a time in the future and sending all the coins to the new address at a that time.

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June 22, 2011, 05:05:32 PM
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I didnt get it. Where ist the link/trail between the 400k+ btc and Mtgox? Did Mtgox ever claimed, the addresses belong to Mtgox? Why couldnt the 400k+ btc just belong to anyone without link to Mtgox?

So, is it all just wild speculation based on some chronological coincidence or are there any facts that backup those theories? Mybe I missed something....

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June 22, 2011, 05:07:20 PM
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Trolls, trolls, trolls. Run. Hide your children, trolls.

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June 22, 2011, 05:08:34 PM
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MagicalTux, if you're reading this: you absolutely need to restore consumer confidence by performing a simple transaction to show that you are actually still in control of your BTC.

Sounds like doing this would take 1 min and could boost morale 1,000 fold.

MtGOX WILL NOT NEGOTIATE WITH TERRORISTS!
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June 22, 2011, 05:08:50 PM
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I didnt get it. Where ist the link/trail between the 400k+ btc and Mtgox? Did Mtgox ever claimed, the addresses belong to Mtgox? Why couldnt the 400k+ btc just belong to anyone without link to Mtgox?

Adam from MtGox confirmed on the Bitcoin Show that that was their wallet.
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June 22, 2011, 05:29:00 PM
 #16

Question: when market opens should I sell BTCs for low?
 or just withdraw the BTCs?

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June 22, 2011, 05:32:38 PM
 #17

the most important thing in all of this is in the first comment to the reddit post:

Quote
Imagine if we had this level of transparency with the fed!
~useful_idiot

really - that is so clear...
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June 22, 2011, 05:42:19 PM
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Question: when market opens should I sell BTCs for low?
 or just withdraw the BTCs?

Depends on your trust issues,

A. you lost trust in bitcoin itself ---> sell the bitcoins
B. you lost trust in mtgox ---> withdraw the bitcoins

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kokojie
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June 22, 2011, 05:48:51 PM
 #19

Question: when market opens should I sell BTCs for low?
 or just withdraw the BTCs?

Depends on your trust issues,

A. you lost trust in bitcoin itself ---> sell the bitcoins
B. you lost trust in mtgox ---> withdraw the bitcoins


I think it's best to just withdraw the coins and sell somewhere else like at tradehill. MtGox dwolla withdrawals are notoriously unreliable and slow even before all this.

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June 22, 2011, 06:09:09 PM
 #20

Question: when market opens should I sell BTCs for low?
 or just withdraw the BTCs?

Depends on your trust issues,

A. you lost trust in bitcoin itself ---> sell the bitcoins
B. you lost trust in mtgox ---> withdraw the bitcoins


If some hacker guy has got the coins he might want to cash a lot of them out.  I still trust the bitcoin but there is a significant downside risk in the short term.
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