twitch.tv/stayeduptolate talking sports / sports betting Picks +12.12 BTC

[SkRRJyTC]

Picks for today we go 7-0 yesterday lets go perfect today.

BTW please go to the site signup and pick games and live chat with everyone!

BTCBTCBTC

NCAFF

11/29    1:00pm    Ball State    vs Miami (OH) TAKE Ball State
11/29    8:00pm    Central FL    vs S Florida TAKE Central FL
11/29    3:00pm    Fla Atlantic    vs Florida Intl TAKE Fla Atlantic
11/29    2:30pm    LSU    vs Arkansas TAKE LSU
11/29    7:00pm    Oregon    vs Oregon St TAKE Oregon
11/29    2:00pm    Ohio    vs U Mass TAKE Ohio

NCABB

11/29    1:00pm    Michigan St    vs Mt St Marys    TAKE Michigan St   
11/29    4:00pm    Cincinnati    vs Kennesaw St       TAKE Cincinnati
11/29    5:00pm    Ohio State    vs N Florida       TAKE Ohio State
11/29    8:00pm    Boise State    vs Portland St    TAKE Boise State   
11/29    3:00pm    Michigan    vs Coppin State       TAKE Michigan
11/29    5:00pm    Towson    vs Citadel       TAKE Towson
11/29    3:00pm    Oklahoma    vs AR Lit Rock       TAKE Oklahoma
11/29    6:00pm    Maryland    vs Morgan St       TAKE Maryland
11/29    8:00pm    Texas Tech    vs TX-San Ant    TAKE Texas Tech    
11/29    12:30pm    Providence    vs Fairfield       TAKE Providence
11/29    8:00pm    Texas    vs TX-Arlington    TAKE Texas    
11/29    8:00pm    Illinois    vs IPFW       TAKE Illinois
11/29    11:30pm    UCLA    vs Northwestern       TAKE UCLA
11/29    7:00pm    W Michigan    vs Cornell    TAKE W Michigan   
11/29    7:00pm    Louisville    vs S Mississippi    TAKE Louisville   
11/29    7:00pm    VCU    vs Northeastrn       TAKE VCU
11/29    11:59pm    Arizona St    vs Col Charlestn    TAKE Arizona St


Here is the book I use bitbook.biz

Feel free to sign up and talk about the games for free at www.crowdcapper.com !

for today!

Nice spamming!

Sucks that you are trying to trick noobs this way... sports betting is pretty fun now that Ive learned a bit.  Shame on you.

[SkRRJyTC]

Beware of stayeduplate, he is dishonest and only picks super favorites to appear to be a good capper.  He just wants your referral signups

Here's some real info for the noobs.

Disclaimer: If you're just betting to add excitement to your games, then you should make whatever the hell kind of bets you want to. This post is intended for people who want to have a better chance of making some money in the long run.

In my earlier post What Does -110 Mean I showed how to calculate the win rate you need in order to make money when making wagers at various odds. As a review, if you have to wager x dollars to win y you need to win x/(x+y) percent of the time in order to break even.
So, if you make a bet at -110 odds, you're betting $110 to win $100 and you'll need to win 110/(110+100) = 11/21 = .5238 or 52.38% of your bets to break even.
If we look at Pinnacle's website under the Parlay / Accumulator Rules section, we find a table with the payouts for parlay cards with all bets at -110 odds. When you make a parlay bet, you're grouping a set of wagers into a single bet with the parlay paying out only if all of the bets in the group win. Even though the parlay involves multiple bets, we should evaluate it as if it were a single wager when determining its value.
Now a quick review of basic probability. When we have multiple events and we want to determine the probability of all of them occuring, we multiply the probabilies of each occuring individually and that product is our answer. For example, the odds of a fair coin landing head is 0.5. The odds of two fair coins landing heads is (0.5)(0.5)=0.25 or 25%. Generally, the odds of an event which occurs with probability p occuring n times in a row is pn.
Back to parlays. I'm going to take the table from the Pinnacle link I posted above and add a few things. First, I'm adding a hypythetical 1 team parlay just to remind us what a single team bet looks like in relation to the rest of the table. Next, I'm adding a column to show us the US odds and a column that tells us what percentage of these bets we need to win in order to break even.

Number of Teams   Win Per Unit Bet   Return Per Unit Bet   US Odds   Target Win Rate
1   0.909   1.909   -110   52.4%
2   2.6   3.6   260   27.7%
3   6   7   600   14.3%
4   12   13   1200   07.7%
5   24   25   2400   04.0%
6   45   46   4500   02.2%
7   80   81   8000   01.2%
8   150   151   15000   00.7%

That doesn't look too bad, right? We only need to win 0.7% of our 8 team parlays to break even. How hard can that be? Let's assume, for simplicity, that all of the plays on our ticket have an equal chance of winning. We saw above that the probability of n events occuring when each has a probability p individually is pn, so we can take the nth root of each of the values in the Target Win Rate column (remembering that 52.4% = 0.524) to see how confident we need to be in each of the individual games in order to make this a positive EV bet.
I've modified the table above and changed the last column to give us the required per game win rate:

Number of Teams   Win Per Unit Bet   Return Per Unit Bet   US Odds   Per Game Win Rate
1   0.909   1.909   -110   52.4%
2   2.6   3.6   260   52.7%
3   6   7   600   52.3%
4   12   13   1200   52.5%
5   24   25   2400   52.7%
6   45   46   4500   52.8%
7   80   81   8000   53.3%
8   150   151   15000   53.4%

Notice that with the exception of the three game parlay, the Per Game Win Rate is higher which tells us that you're better off sticking to the standard -110 bet.
There are a few obvious questions to answer now:
Does it matter that you assumed that all of the games on the ticket had the same chance of hitting? What if they're different?
The short answer is no. You aren't certain enough of the outcomes of these games to nail it down very well, and even if you were you still have to multiply the individual probabilities together to get the final answer. If you remember how to optimize a function from your high school calculus you'll remember that you're best off when all of the values are the same. If you don't remember then you can research it or just take my word for it. It's up to you.
Does that mean the three game parlay is a good bet? or What if my book doesn't charge extra vig on parlay tickets?
A book not charging extra vig would mean that the payoff for the parlay ticket was exactly the product of the payoff for the inidvidual games. I was surprised to learn that some books actually do this and it does make parlays look more attractive, but there is a hidden cost. In both the three team case at Pinnacle and in the case where you're not paying extra vig, you're still taking on more variance for very little (or no) extra return.
In short, variance tells us how long we might expect to go without winning a wager. In the case of the three team ticket we need to win 14.3% of our wagers but compared to 52.4% of our -110 bets. This means that we will have much longer dry streaks with the parlay strategy. Longer dry streaks mean smaller bankrolls and a greater chance of washing out. If you base your unit bet size on the size of your bankroll (and you almost certainly should) that means that when you hit dry streaks and your bankroll drops you'll be winning less when you finally hit because your unit size is smaller.

For example, suppose you start with a $100 bankroll and decide that for you a unit is 2%. If you go down five units your new bankroll is $90 and your new unit is $1.81. If you win five units now, your bankroll is $99.05. You're down 1% of your starting cash. The bottom line here is that your EV is almost identical in the three team parlay vs three bets at -110 so there is no reason to take on the added risk associated with longer dry streaks.


TL;DR: Don't make parlay bets. You're just giving extra money to your bookie and making it harder to be profitable.

[stayeduptolate]

Beware of stayeduplate, he is dishonest and only picks super favorites to appear to be a good capper.  He just wants your referral signups

Here's some real info for the noobs.

Disclaimer: If you're just betting to add excitement to your games, then you should make whatever the hell kind of bets you want to. This post is intended for people who want to have a better chance of making some money in the long run.

In my earlier post What Does -110 Mean I showed how to calculate the win rate you need in order to make money when making wagers at various odds. As a review, if you have to wager x dollars to win y you need to win x/(x+y) percent of the time in order to break even.
So, if you make a bet at -110 odds, you're betting $110 to win $100 and you'll need to win 110/(110+100) = 11/21 = .5238 or 52.38% of your bets to break even.
If we look at Pinnacle's website under the Parlay / Accumulator Rules section, we find a table with the payouts for parlay cards with all bets at -110 odds. When you make a parlay bet, you're grouping a set of wagers into a single bet with the parlay paying out only if all of the bets in the group win. Even though the parlay involves multiple bets, we should evaluate it as if it were a single wager when determining its value.
Now a quick review of basic probability. When we have multiple events and we want to determine the probability of all of them occuring, we multiply the probabilies of each occuring individually and that product is our answer. For example, the odds of a fair coin landing head is 0.5. The odds of two fair coins landing heads is (0.5)(0.5)=0.25 or 25%. Generally, the odds of an event which occurs with probability p occuring n times in a row is pn.
Back to parlays. I'm going to take the table from the Pinnacle link I posted above and add a few things. First, I'm adding a hypythetical 1 team parlay just to remind us what a single team bet looks like in relation to the rest of the table. Next, I'm adding a column to show us the US odds and a column that tells us what percentage of these bets we need to win in order to break even.

Number of Teams   Win Per Unit Bet   Return Per Unit Bet   US Odds   Target Win Rate
1   0.909   1.909   -110   52.4%
2   2.6   3.6   260   27.7%
3   6   7   600   14.3%
4   12   13   1200   07.7%
5   24   25   2400   04.0%
6   45   46   4500   02.2%
7   80   81   8000   01.2%
8   150   151   15000   00.7%

That doesn't look too bad, right? We only need to win 0.7% of our 8 team parlays to break even. How hard can that be? Let's assume, for simplicity, that all of the plays on our ticket have an equal chance of winning. We saw above that the probability of n events occuring when each has a probability p individually is pn, so we can take the nth root of each of the values in the Target Win Rate column (remembering that 52.4% = 0.524) to see how confident we need to be in each of the individual games in order to make this a positive EV bet.
I've modified the table above and changed the last column to give us the required per game win rate:

Number of Teams   Win Per Unit Bet   Return Per Unit Bet   US Odds   Per Game Win Rate
1   0.909   1.909   -110   52.4%
2   2.6   3.6   260   52.7%
3   6   7   600   52.3%
4   12   13   1200   52.5%
5   24   25   2400   52.7%
6   45   46   4500   52.8%
7   80   81   8000   53.3%
8   150   151   15000   53.4%

Notice that with the exception of the three game parlay, the Per Game Win Rate is higher which tells us that you're better off sticking to the standard -110 bet.
There are a few obvious questions to answer now:
Does it matter that you assumed that all of the games on the ticket had the same chance of hitting? What if they're different?
The short answer is no. You aren't certain enough of the outcomes of these games to nail it down very well, and even if you were you still have to multiply the individual probabilities together to get the final answer. If you remember how to optimize a function from your high school calculus you'll remember that you're best off when all of the values are the same. If you don't remember then you can research it or just take my word for it. It's up to you.
Does that mean the three game parlay is a good bet? or What if my book doesn't charge extra vig on parlay tickets?
A book not charging extra vig would mean that the payoff for the parlay ticket was exactly the product of the payoff for the inidvidual games. I was surprised to learn that some books actually do this and it does make parlays look more attractive, but there is a hidden cost. In both the three team case at Pinnacle and in the case where you're not paying extra vig, you're still taking on more variance for very little (or no) extra return.
In short, variance tells us how long we might expect to go without winning a wager. In the case of the three team ticket we need to win 14.3% of our wagers but compared to 52.4% of our -110 bets. This means that we will have much longer dry streaks with the parlay strategy. Longer dry streaks mean smaller bankrolls and a greater chance of washing out. If you base your unit bet size on the size of your bankroll (and you almost certainly should) that means that when you hit dry streaks and your bankroll drops you'll be winning less when you finally hit because your unit size is smaller.

For example, suppose you start with a $100 bankroll and decide that for you a unit is 2%. If you go down five units your new bankroll is $90 and your new unit is $1.81. If you win five units now, your bankroll is $99.05. You're down 1% of your starting cash. The bottom line here is that your EV is almost identical in the three team parlay vs three bets at -110 so there is no reason to take on the added risk associated with longer dry streaks.


TL;DR: Don't make parlay bets. You're just giving extra money to your bookie and making it harder to be profitable.

he loves me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[stayeduptolate]

Picks for today we go 7-0 yesterday lets go perfect today.

BTW please go to the site signup and pick games and live chat with everyone!

BTCBTCBTC

NCAFF

11/29    1:00pm    Ball State    vs Miami (OH) TAKE Ball State
11/29    8:00pm    Central FL    vs S Florida TAKE Central FL
11/29    3:00pm    Fla Atlantic    vs Florida Intl TAKE Fla Atlantic
11/29    2:30pm    LSU    vs Arkansas TAKE LSU
11/29    7:00pm    Oregon    vs Oregon St TAKE Oregon
11/29    2:00pm    Ohio    vs U Mass TAKE Ohio

NCABB

11/29    1:00pm    Michigan St    vs Mt St Marys    TAKE Michigan St   
11/29    4:00pm    Cincinnati    vs Kennesaw St       TAKE Cincinnati
11/29    5:00pm    Ohio State    vs N Florida       TAKE Ohio State
11/29    8:00pm    Boise State    vs Portland St    TAKE Boise State   
11/29    3:00pm    Michigan    vs Coppin State       TAKE Michigan
11/29    5:00pm    Towson    vs Citadel       TAKE Towson
11/29    3:00pm    Oklahoma    vs AR Lit Rock       TAKE Oklahoma
11/29    6:00pm    Maryland    vs Morgan St       TAKE Maryland
11/29    8:00pm    Texas Tech    vs TX-San Ant    TAKE Texas Tech    
11/29    12:30pm    Providence    vs Fairfield       TAKE Providence
11/29    8:00pm    Texas    vs TX-Arlington    TAKE Texas    
11/29    8:00pm    Illinois    vs IPFW       TAKE Illinois
11/29    11:30pm    UCLA    vs Northwestern       TAKE UCLA
11/29    7:00pm    W Michigan    vs Cornell    TAKE W Michigan   
11/29    7:00pm    Louisville    vs S Mississippi    TAKE Louisville   
11/29    7:00pm    VCU    vs Northeastrn       TAKE VCU
11/29    11:59pm    Arizona St    vs Col Charlestn    TAKE Arizona St


Here is the book I use bitbook.biz

Feel free to sign up and talk about the games for free at www.crowdcapper.com !

For new page!

[SkRRJyTC]

<snip> Useful info </snip>

he loves me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Very mature and constructive response.

Anyone following you deserves what they get. 

You're a fool.

[stayeduptolate]

<snip> Useful info </snip>

he loves me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Very mature and constructive response.

Anyone following you deserves what they get. 

You're a fool.

what can I say you have been all about me fot months and for that I thank you keep up the great work bud!!

[Light]

@SkR very interesting post with a solid mathematical grounding to the analysis. From a mathematical point of view is there ever a good reason to have a parlay over a couple of straight bets? I occasionally do them on games I'm pretty confident on, but is it better to place a larger set of single wagers?

[SkRRJyTC]

@SkR very interesting post with a solid mathematical grounding to the analysis. From a mathematical point of view is there ever a good reason to have a parlay over a couple of straight bets? I occasionally do them on games I'm pretty confident on, but is it better to place a larger set of single wagers?

You've got a PM

If anyone else wants more info PM me.

Look at the spam stayeduplate is doing to try and push this info down the thread...

[stayeduptolate]

Picks for today we go 7-0 yesterday lets go perfect today.

BTW please go to the site signup and pick games and live chat with everyone!

BTCBTCBTC

NCAFF

11/29    1:00pm    Ball State    vs Miami (OH) TAKE Ball State
11/29    8:00pm    Central FL    vs S Florida TAKE Central FL
11/29    3:00pm    Fla Atlantic    vs Florida Intl TAKE Fla Atlantic
11/29    2:30pm    LSU    vs Arkansas TAKE LSU
11/29    7:00pm    Oregon    vs Oregon St TAKE Oregon
11/29    2:00pm    Ohio    vs U Mass TAKE Ohio

NCABB

11/29    1:00pm    Michigan St    vs Mt St Marys    TAKE Michigan St   
11/29    4:00pm    Cincinnati    vs Kennesaw St       TAKE Cincinnati
11/29    5:00pm    Ohio State    vs N Florida       TAKE Ohio State
11/29    8:00pm    Boise State    vs Portland St    TAKE Boise State   
11/29    3:00pm    Michigan    vs Coppin State       TAKE Michigan
11/29    5:00pm    Towson    vs Citadel       TAKE Towson
11/29    3:00pm    Oklahoma    vs AR Lit Rock       TAKE Oklahoma
11/29    6:00pm    Maryland    vs Morgan St       TAKE Maryland
11/29    8:00pm    Texas Tech    vs TX-San Ant    TAKE Texas Tech    
11/29    12:30pm    Providence    vs Fairfield       TAKE Providence
11/29    8:00pm    Texas    vs TX-Arlington    TAKE Texas    
11/29    8:00pm    Illinois    vs IPFW       TAKE Illinois
11/29    11:30pm    UCLA    vs Northwestern       TAKE UCLA
11/29    7:00pm    W Michigan    vs Cornell    TAKE W Michigan   
11/29    7:00pm    Louisville    vs S Mississippi    TAKE Louisville   
11/29    7:00pm    VCU    vs Northeastrn       TAKE VCU
11/29    11:59pm    Arizona St    vs Col Charlestn    TAKE Arizona St


Here is the book I use bitbook.biz

Feel free to sign up and talk about the games for free at www.crowdcapper.com !

For new page!

[Light]

@SkR very interesting post with a solid mathematical grounding to the analysis. From a mathematical point of view is there ever a good reason to have a parlay over a couple of straight bets? I occasionally do them on games I'm pretty confident on, but is it better to place a larger set of single wagers?

You've got a PM

If anyone else wants more info PM me.

Look at the spam stayeduplate is doing to try and push this info down the thread...

Thanks for the link, being a profitable sports bettor isn't easy but at least I'm enjoying it along the way. It makes sense that parlays have extra vig, bookies don't do anything unless it makes more money.

[Jabbatheslutt]

YAY 6 bet parlay win

Barely though

[stayeduptolate]

YAY 6 bet parlay win

Barely though

very nice congrats bro!

[Damnsammit]

Sometimes I take ridiculous parlays for 1mBTC, and sometimes they pay off like when I hit a 100:1 MLB parlay earlier this year.

I prefer to bet on games straight up, though.

[RyanK]

5 bet parlay       1.290 / -345

What a joke 

+1 Ha and you almost lost .02 because of the ducks for a win of nearly nothing.

[Shallow]

Sometimes I take ridiculous parlays for 1mBTC, and sometimes they pay off like when I hit a 100:1 MLB parlay earlier this year.

I prefer to bet on games straight up, though.

What site offers 1mb parlays?

[MoneyGod]

Sometimes I take ridiculous parlays for 1mBTC, and sometimes they pay off like when I hit a 100:1 MLB parlay earlier this year.

I prefer to bet on games straight up, though.

What site offers 1mb parlays?

try this on Niterogensports they are offering 1 mBTC parlays and bets also in 1 mBTC I think now bitbook also offering parlays in 1 mBTC but they count in 0.001 in this way

[exstasie]

Here's my stupid parlay for the day:


North Carolina State - Maryland  (Pick: Maryland -2.5) 1.83/-122
Nevada - BYU (Pick: BYU -14) 1.76/-132
Virginia - Virginia Tech Tip: (Pick: Virginia +12.5)   1.87/-115
West Virginia - Iowa State (Pick: Iowa State +8) 1.81/-124
South Carolina - Clemson (Pick: Clemson +4.5) 1.70/-143
Stanford - Notre Dame (Pick: Standford -15) 1.88/-114
Missouri - Texas A&M (Pick: Texas A&M +5)   1.89/-113

Total Odds: 47.94/+4694
Winning Odds from Bet365 Parlay Bets: 80.00/+8000
Love that Bet365 has a Parlay section for Football which has decent odds!

Last week won a 6 game parlay at +4000 so let's see if my method continues

[stayeduptolate]

Keep up the parlays everyone I love seeing them and cheeringbyou guyd on !!!

[stayeduptolate]

so we go 23-0 and 30-0 last 2 days

Come to www.crowdcapper.com feel free to pick games and talk on are live chat!!!

BTCBTCBTCBTC

NCAFF

11/29    1:00pm    Ball State    vs Miami (OH) TAKE Ball State WIN
11/29    8:00pm    Central FL    vs S Florida TAKE Central FL WIN
11/29    3:00pm    Fla Atlantic    vs Florida Intl TAKE Fla Atlantic WIN
11/29    2:30pm    LSU    vs Arkansas TAKE LSU WIN
11/29    7:00pm    Oregon    vs Oregon St TAKE Oregon WIN
11/29    2:00pm    Ohio    vs U Mass TAKE Ohio WIN

NCABB

11/29    1:00pm    Michigan St    vs Mt St Marys    TAKE Michigan St    WIN
11/29    4:00pm    Cincinnati    vs Kennesaw St       TAKE Cincinnati WIN
11/29    5:00pm    Ohio State    vs N Florida       TAKE Ohio State WIN
11/29    8:00pm    Boise State    vs Portland St    TAKE Boise State    WIN
11/29    3:00pm    Michigan    vs Coppin State       TAKE Michigan WIN
11/29    5:00pm    Towson    vs Citadel       TAKE Towson WIN
11/29    3:00pm    Oklahoma    vs AR Lit Rock       TAKE Oklahoma WIN
11/29    6:00pm    Maryland    vs Morgan St       TAKE Maryland WIN
11/29    8:00pm    Texas Tech    vs TX-San Ant    TAKE Texas Tech     WIN
11/29    12:30pm    Providence    vs Fairfield       TAKE Providence WIN
11/29    8:00pm    Texas    vs TX-Arlington    TAKE Texas     WIN
11/29    8:00pm    Illinois    vs IPFW       TAKE Illinois WIN
11/29    11:30pm    UCLA    vs Northwestern       TAKE UCLA WIN
11/29    7:00pm    W Michigan    vs Cornell    TAKE W Michigan   WIN
11/29    7:00pm    Louisville    vs S Mississippi    TAKE Louisville   WIN
11/29    7:00pm    VCU    vs Northeastrn       TAKE VCU WIN
11/29    11:59pm    Arizona St    vs Col Charlestn    TAKE Arizona St  WIN


Here is the book I use bitbook.biz

Feel free to sign up and talk about the games for free at www.crowdcapper.com !

[stayeduptolate]

Picks for today lets go perfect again!

NCAFF

11/30    10:15pm    Boise State    vs New Mexico TAKE Boise State
11/30    12:00pm    Florida St    at Florida TAKE Florida St
11/30    3:30pm    Wisconsin    vs Penn State TAKE Wisconsin
11/30    2:00pm    Utah State    vs Wyoming TAKE  Utah State
11/30    3:45pm    Middle Tenn    vs TX El Paso TAKE Middle Tenn

NCABB
11/30    1:00pm    Towson    vs Abilene Christian    TAKE Towson       
11/30    7:00pm    UNLV    vs TN Martin       TAKE UNLV    
11/30    9:05pm    N Colorado    vs Beth-Cook    TAKE N Colorado   
11/30    1:00pm    Pittsburgh    vs Duquesne    TAKE Pittsburgh    
11/30    2:00pm    Brown    vs Central Conn       TAKE Brown
11/30    10:00pm    St Marys    vs Murray St       TAKE St Marys
11/30    1:00pm    Nebraska    vs N Illinois       TAKE Nebraska
11/30    12:00pm    Georgetown    vs Lipscomb    TAKE Georgetown    
11/30    6:00pm    Richmond    vs James Mad       TAKE Richmond
11/30    9:30pm    Wyoming    vs Montana St    TAKE Wyoming   
11/30    6:30pm    Oregon    vs North Dakota       TAKE Oregon
11/30    3:05pm    New Mexico    vs San Diego    TAKE New Mexico   
11/30    2:00pm    SC Upstate    vs TN State    TAKE SC Upstate    
11/30    4:00pm    Colorado    at Air Force    TAKE Colorado


Here is the book I use bitbook.biz

Feel free to sign up and talk about the games for free at www.crowdcapper.com !