slavix (OP)
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 96
Merit: 10
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2013, 06:04:42 AM |
|
Hello, I am waiting on a BFL ASIC that hopefully will arrive some time this summer. I am told end of July is likely. I would like to find out if there is any calculator out there that can make a reasonable prediction of the expected bitcoin network difficulty some time into the future using existing data about the network growth rate. What difficulty can be expected 1st of august, 2013?
|
|
|
|
Amph
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3248
Merit: 1070
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2013, 07:14:35 AM |
|
35 m
|
|
|
|
slavix (OP)
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 96
Merit: 10
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2013, 07:16:34 AM |
|
I like your prediction ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Hopefully you are right.
|
|
|
|
Oknocaps
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 23
Merit: 0
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2013, 08:33:39 AM |
|
End of july...I would say 40 ish
|
|
|
|
ripple
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 287
Merit: 10
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2013, 12:56:51 PM Last edit: May 22, 2013, 01:34:09 PM by ripple |
|
This is past data for mining difficulty:
Date % Increase Difficulty
23-Jan-13 8.64% 2,968,775 08-Jan-13 8.64% 3,249,550 05-Feb-13 10.33% 3,275,465 18-Feb-13 11.47% 3,651,012 01-Mar-13 19.63% 4,367,876 14-Mar-13 10.98% 4,847,647 24-Mar-13 38.13% 6,695,826 05-Apr-13 14.59% 7,673,000 30-Apr-13 12.28% 10,076,293 14-May-13 11.03% 11,187,257
If difficulty increases at 15% per two weeks at next increase then at End July difficulty will be 22,501,570. If you have a Jalapeno arriving at end-July your total estimated profit would be $1,100, if you run the unit 24/7 till end 2014 year.
28-May-13 15% 12,865,346 11-Jun-13 15% 14,795,147 25-Jun-13 15% 17,014,419 09-Jul-13 15% 19,566,582 23-Jul-13 15% 22,501,570 06-Aug-13 15% 25,876,805
If difficulty increases at 18% per two weeks then at End July difficulty will be 25,593,734. If you have a Jalapeno arriving at end-July you will possibly make $750 profit, if you run the unit 24/7 till end 2014 year. At $120 per BTC your break-even date of arrival is 29th Oct, and if it arrives after this date you will make a loss. At $100 per BTC your break-even date of arrival is 15th Oct, and if it arrives after this date you will make a loss.
28-May-13 18% 13,200,963 11-Jun-13 18% 15,577,137 25-Jun-13 18% 18,381,021 09-Jul-13 18% 21,689,605 23-Jul-13 18% 25,593,734 06-Aug-13 18% 30,200,606 20-Aug-13 18% 35,636,715 03-Sep-13 18% 42,051,324 17-Sep-13 18% 49,620,562 01-Oct-13 18% 58,552,263 15-Oct-13 18% 69,091,671 29-Oct-13 18% 81,528,172 12-Nov-13 18% 96,203,242
With the present sales of ASIC chips in bulk from a competitor, Avalon, in lots of ten thousand to distributors, new miner units could reach retail customers by late July. If so this extra estimated 84 TH/s, at around $2.8 million in chip value, could have an enormous impact on mining output and difficulty levels thereafter.
Lets hope Butterfly Labs Inc. deliver as promised, and you are not one of the unlucky ones that will be mining just to cover their payment to Butterfly labs.
Good luck.
|
|
|
|
Amph
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3248
Merit: 1070
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2013, 02:56:38 PM |
|
how can he make a loss with a jalapeno, with a consumption of only 30 watt? he eventually will catch up the difficulty and make roi, sooner or later...
|
|
|
|
GigaWave
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2013, 04:56:52 PM |
|
I know this forum software sucks, but come on. This exact question/thread was just posted the other day....literally. People need to learn how to research. This stuff has been cover extensively.
|
|
|
|
slavix (OP)
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 96
Merit: 10
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2013, 05:05:53 PM |
|
This is past data for mining difficulty:
Date % Increase Difficulty
23-Jan-13 8.64% 2,968,775 08-Jan-13 8.64% 3,249,550 05-Feb-13 10.33% 3,275,465 18-Feb-13 11.47% 3,651,012 01-Mar-13 19.63% 4,367,876 14-Mar-13 10.98% 4,847,647 24-Mar-13 38.13% 6,695,826 05-Apr-13 14.59% 7,673,000 30-Apr-13 12.28% 10,076,293 14-May-13 11.03% 11,187,257
From where did you collect these numbers for historical difficulty at those dates?
|
|
|
|
ripple
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 287
Merit: 10
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2013, 06:05:16 PM Last edit: May 22, 2013, 07:29:33 PM by ripple |
|
slavix, I obtained the historic data from 50btc.com, an excellent and very easy to use mining pool. www.50btc.comThey show a fair amount of statistics to assist miners. This is past data for mining difficulty:
Date % Increase Difficulty
23-Jan-13 8.64% 2,968,775 08-Jan-13 8.64% 3,249,550 05-Feb-13 10.33% 3,275,465 18-Feb-13 11.47% 3,651,012 01-Mar-13 19.63% 4,367,876 14-Mar-13 10.98% 4,847,647 24-Mar-13 38.13% 6,695,826 05-Apr-13 14.59% 7,673,000 30-Apr-13 12.28% 10,076,293 14-May-13 11.03% 11,187,257
From where did you collect these numbers for historical difficulty at those dates?
|
|
|
|
ripple
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 287
Merit: 10
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2013, 07:07:12 PM Last edit: May 22, 2013, 07:26:30 PM by ripple |
|
Amph, If difficulty increases at an average of 18% then on 29th October 2013 difficulty will be 81,528,172. At difficulty 81,528,172 and BTC of $120, a Jalapeno chugging away at 5.5 Gh/s will earn $3.95 per day. Difficulty will continue to rise. If difficulty increases at an average of 18% then: By 18/02/2014 difficulty will be 306,452,918 and earnings $1.05 per day. By 02/09/2014 difficulty will be 3,109,652,526 and earnings $0.10 per day. By 23/12/2014 difficulty will be 11,688,746,014 and earnings $0.03 per day. The unit costs $312. ($274 + $38 shipping). You have to recover $312. The unit becomes scrap after this as it can only be used for mining. Its not a graphics card like a 7970 you can use for gaming afterwards. Electricity costs on average $0.15 per KW hour. So a Jalapeno chugging away at 5.5 GH/s using 30w per hour, is using 0.03 Kw/h x 24 hours which will cost $0.11 per day. So at $120 per BTC your break-even date of arrival is 29th Oct, and if it arrives after this date you will make a loss as your future earnings will not cover the initial cost of the Jalapeno. Consideration must also be given to whether electricity can be obtained free in which case you could carry on running the unit a while longer. If you are more optimistic about difficulty levels... If difficulty increases at 15% per two weeks at next increase then at End July difficulty will be 22,501,570. If difficulty increases at an average of 15% then on 10th December 2013 difficulty will be 91,031,400. If you have a Jalapeno arriving at end-July your total estimated profit would be $1,100, if you run the unit 24/7 till end 2014 year. At $120 per BTC your break-even date of arrival is 24th Dec, and if it arrives after this date you will make a loss. At $100 per BTC your break-even date of arrival is 26th Nov, and if it arrives after this date you will make a loss as your future earnings will not cover the initial cost of the Jalapeno. No one can accurately predict difficulty levels, however past data should allow an estimate of the future. Neither can Bitcoin levels accurately be predicted. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value other than the opportunity cost of using it relative to transaction costs of other payment mediums. This means that there is no guaranteed upside potential other than during speculative bubbles. The price of Bitcoin seems to have stabilized around USD 120 after its wild swings in the past two months, and it is quite reasonable to use $120 as an estimate of future price. However investors in mining rigs need to consider scenarios where the price drops $100 or $80. A Jalapeno is a cheap flutter and for most people if they are only buying one or two Jalapenos it's really a fun gamble rather than a serious investment. Butterfly Labs has very cleverly pitched their price at $274 as this has allowed them to obtain tens of millions of dollars in pre-order deposits, and at this price they believe buyers are not going to make too much of a fuss even if they get their items very late. how can he make a loss with a jalapeno, with a consumption of only 30 watt? he eventually will catch up the difficulty and make roi, sooner or later...
|
|
|
|
slavix (OP)
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 96
Merit: 10
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2013, 07:38:54 PM |
|
I obtained the historic data from 50btc.com, an excellent and very easy to use mining pool.
I plugged numbers from 50btc.com into a spreadsheet and came up with this prediction graph using avg change in difficulty for last 10 periods to predict future changes. http://db.tt/LIOIvUbWnot sure how to insert image here, just providing a link. If these predictions hold up we can expect about 50m by the end of summer and close to 250m by end of the year.
|
|
|
|
ripple
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 287
Merit: 10
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2013, 07:49:19 PM |
|
Slavix, Your graph looks good. While it's an estimate only, I hope it will allow readers to realise that difficulty increases dramatically over time and when making a decision to make or purchase a mining rig they need to factor in this continuous two-week increase into their calculations. During the next month the exact sales figures of bulk lot sales of ASIC chips may allow a more accurate estimate of future hash rates and difficulty levels. I obtained the historic data from 50btc.com, an excellent and very easy to use mining pool.
I plugged numbers from 50btc.com into a spreadsheet and came up with this prediction graph using avg change in difficulty for last 10 periods to predict future changes. http://db.tt/LIOIvUbWnot sure how to insert image here, just providing a link. If these predictions hold up we can expect about 50m by the end of summer and close to 250m by end of the year.
|
|
|
|
|
ashaw596
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 23, 2013, 01:54:55 PM |
|
The problem with using a percentage to calculate future difficulty is that right now, really for the first time, we're going to have asics flooding the market (it was a trickle before) that can mine 10-100 times faster then gpus or fpga's for the first time. So difficutly is probably going to skyrocket whenever these companies can actually deliver. It won't be a percentage increase, but it will depend on the number of asics sold. If anyone has the chance, try to do a calculation for the hash rate increase the asics will cause. (I can't find the sales numbers. Maybe one of you can.)
|
|
|
|
Syke
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 23, 2013, 05:17:14 PM |
|
Neither can Bitcoin levels accurately be predicted. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value other than the opportunity cost of using it relative to transaction costs of other payment mediums. This means that there is no guaranteed upside potential other than during speculative bubbles. The price of Bitcoin seems to have stabilized around USD 120 after its wild swings in the past two months, and it is quite reasonable to use $120 as an estimate of future price. However investors in mining rigs need to consider scenarios where the price drops $100 or $80.
That's why it makes far more sense to eliminate the fiat exchange rates and calculate profits based solely on bitcoins spent to purchase the equiment and bitcoins generated by the equipment. A Jalapenos pre-order purchased for 25 btc needs to generate 25 btc to break even.
|
Buy & Hold
|
|
|
FCTaiChi
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 23, 2013, 10:29:43 PM |
|
That's why it makes far more sense to eliminate the fiat exchange rates and calculate profits based solely on bitcoins spent to purchase the equiment and bitcoins generated by the equipment. A Jalapenos pre-order purchased for 25 btc needs to generate 25 btc to break even.
Definitely on the same page with you here. Only reason I even keep the price when I do this is so people can easily see what fits their price range. The problem with using a percentage to calculate future difficulty is that right now, really for the first time, we're going to have asics flooding the market (it was a trickle before) that can mine 10-100 times faster then gpus or fpga's for the first time. So difficutly is probably going to skyrocket whenever these companies can actually deliver. It won't be a percentage increase, but it will depend on the number of asics sold. If anyone has the chance, try to do a calculation for the hash rate increase the asics will cause. (I can't find the sales numbers. Maybe one of you can.)
I've been looking around for these projected numbers, as ASIC's come in. I know that I've seen them before. It will be interesting to see what happens on the 26th when it recalculates.
|
|
|
|
Nemo1024
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 23, 2013, 10:32:48 PM |
|
Predicted difficulty is 11988429 in 1.9 days according to iPhone app BitCoinGold
|
“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.” “We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.” “It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
|
|
|
FCTaiChi
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 24, 2013, 12:53:39 AM |
|
7% increase? that sounds fishy.. hasn't been under 10% since January, why go down on this block when so many ASICs are coming out?
|
|
|
|
Nemo1024
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 24, 2013, 06:11:12 AM |
|
That's a ballpark estimate based on the average time between blocks. And it's creeping up, now reading 12022644 in 1.6 days.
|
“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.” “We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.” “It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
|
|
|
Nemo1024
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 25, 2013, 10:25:37 PM |
|
It ended up being 12153412 or 8.64% up. First time single-digit increase in a long time.
|
“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.” “We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.” “It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
|
|
|
|