From Gold & Stocks to Bitcoin: An Exodus?

[exstasie]

It's strange you've started this topic, because Forbes has done an article today saying "Bitcoin is the new Gold":

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2017/08/30/bitcoin-is-the-new-gold/#77e785013b36

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un is launching missiles over Japan. China is trying to write its own navigation rules in South China Sea. Washington is in disarray. Global debt continues to pile up. And central banks continue to hold interest rates at near zero levels.

Global uncertainty is rising. Yet, gold isn’t rallying.

Bitcoin, the new ‘gold,’ is.

Once, gold was the hedge against uncertainty, the asset where investors could park their cash in times of political and economic turmoil. Now Bitcoin is taking its place, as evidenced by the performance of the two assets in recent months.

Why does this keep getting repeated, though? Yes, gold had a 4-year correction to an insane bull market. That correction ended in 2015. Just look at a weekly (and especially monthly) chart. Gold formed a very solid higher low in late 2016. We're closing a beautiful, fat monthly green candle at new local highs.

It seems pretty clear from my TA that we are heading for a retest of the $1375 highs, and likely will establish a monthly uptrend once the highs are broken.

Gold has been rallying hard for 1.5 years...

[Ludwig Von]

Again, if investors are getting out of Gold and stocks, this is due to the good ROI that bitcoin is giving them. Is has nothing to do with hedging it against a looming crisis like World War 3. Bitcoin will be totally useless in that kind of situation. Maybe they are just protecting their wealth or assets because bitcoin is also a store of value. For me, there are exodus because of their potential profit and bitcoin as safe haven for the preservation of wealth. Gold has been with us for so many years, but I doubt that gold holders will simply pull out of it. They just have a better alternative now - Bitcoin.

I moved 20% of my gold holdings (physical) to BTC and some others, just to eliminate the negative impacts of the manipulations in the gold market. All gains in crypto go back to gold. (And a little decadence). BTC is the near ideal partner for PMs.

[thecodebear]

It's strange you've started this topic, because Forbes has done an article today saying "Bitcoin is the new Gold":

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2017/08/30/bitcoin-is-the-new-gold/#77e785013b36

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un is launching missiles over Japan. China is trying to write its own navigation rules in South China Sea. Washington is in disarray. Global debt continues to pile up. And central banks continue to hold interest rates at near zero levels.

Global uncertainty is rising. Yet, gold isn’t rallying.

Bitcoin, the new ‘gold,’ is.

Once, gold was the hedge against uncertainty, the asset where investors could park their cash in times of political and economic turmoil. Now Bitcoin is taking its place, as evidenced by the performance of the two assets in recent months.

Why does this keep getting repeated, though? Yes, gold had a 4-year correction to an insane bull market. That correction ended in 2015. Just look at a weekly (and especially monthly) chart. Gold formed a very solid higher low in late 2016. We're closing a beautiful, fat monthly green candle at new local highs.

It seems pretty clear from my TA that we are heading for a retest of the $1375 highs, and likely will establish a monthly uptrend once the highs are broken.

Gold has been rallying hard for 1.5 years...

Gold may as well be standing still in comparison to bitcoin.

Bitcoin is like gold, if it was just discovered so is spiking up tremendously as more and more people find out about it, but light as air, and digital so you can actually spend it anywhere and whenever you want, all while maintaining gold's supply cap store of value properties.

[exstasie]

It's strange you've started this topic, because Forbes has done an article today saying "Bitcoin is the new Gold":

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2017/08/30/bitcoin-is-the-new-gold/#77e785013b36

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un is launching missiles over Japan. China is trying to write its own navigation rules in South China Sea. Washington is in disarray. Global debt continues to pile up. And central banks continue to hold interest rates at near zero levels.

Global uncertainty is rising. Yet, gold isn’t rallying.

Bitcoin, the new ‘gold,’ is.

Once, gold was the hedge against uncertainty, the asset where investors could park their cash in times of political and economic turmoil. Now Bitcoin is taking its place, as evidenced by the performance of the two assets in recent months.

Why does this keep getting repeated, though? Yes, gold had a 4-year correction to an insane bull market. That correction ended in 2015. Just look at a weekly (and especially monthly) chart. Gold formed a very solid higher low in late 2016. We're closing a beautiful, fat monthly green candle at new local highs.

It seems pretty clear from my TA that we are heading for a retest of the $1375 highs, and likely will establish a monthly uptrend once the highs are broken.

Gold has been rallying hard for 1.5 years...

Gold may as well be standing still in comparison to bitcoin.

Think about what you're saying. Gold had a nearly 700% price increase over 10 years (2001-2011). At the lows, the market capitalization was ~ $1.5 trillion. To move the market, it took more money by orders of magnitude when compared to BTC.

You're using the same logic that shitcoiners use to pump their coins. Yes, low market cap altcoins can net you much, much bigger % gains than BTC. Any day of the week. Are you going to stick all your money into low market cap altcoins?

Diversification of one's portfolio is a beautiful thing.

[Rahar02]

I'm interested what evidence you have that "there is an "exodus" away from gold and stocks"? With gold at YTD highs back over $1300 and stock indices at all time highs, it would seem the opposite is true.

I've been an advocate of Bitcoin since 2013 and I truly believe that it has potential to go massively higher. However, it is ridiculous to suggest that it is a safe haven. It is a highly speculative investment that has the potential to give spectacular returns, but as always that comes with a high level of risk.

There's no way to get the data as people trade gold or stocks at their will, not to publish it or report their transactions to public.
We just guessing, when bitcoin price increase but gold or stocks prices are declining. I've been watching over gold prices for a while and you're right, the price rise to $1323 right now. I am not sure what affects gold price, who decide whether it goes up or down.
But, I am sure people know that invest in bitcoin is more profitable than invest in gold.

[pisston]

I'm interested what evidence you have that "there is an "exodus" away from gold and stocks"? With gold at YTD highs back over $1300 and stock indices at all time highs, it would seem the opposite is true.

I've been an advocate of Bitcoin since 2013 and I truly believe that it has potential to go massively higher. However, it is ridiculous to suggest that it is a safe haven. It is a highly speculative investment that has the potential to give spectacular returns, but as always that comes with a high level of risk.

There's no way to get the data as people trade gold or stocks at their will, not to publish it or report their transactions to public.
We just guessing, when bitcoin price increase but gold or stocks prices are declining. I've been watching over gold prices for a while and you're right, the price rise to $1323 right now. I am not sure what affects gold price, who decide whether it goes up or down.
But, I am sure people know that invest in bitcoin is more profitable than invest in gold.

It seems to me that it is inappropriate to compare Bitcoin with gold. In all cases and circumstances, gold has a more stable position and with gold content or investing in gold, the user reduces the new risk of losing their finances, unlike working with crypto currency.

[hatshepsut93]

It's happening, but very slowly, which is good, because we don't need any hyper speculation. Bitcoin and crypto market cap is still a tiny fraction of legacy financial system, and if full exodus to happen, the market would grow hundreds and thousands of times. But I don't think that this is realistic, more likely crypto, gold and fiat will continue coexisting. Most people will be using whatever is best for them for investing, storing and using, which will lead to different choices.

[wxa7115]

In the past many years, gold has not been a stellar performer and some are even calling gold earnings as flat and bland, so to speak. This year, it can now be told that gold seems to be lacking the necessary shine and luster. As investors are looking for other ways to get the most return of their money, many are shifting to cryptocurrencies...away from the traditional gold and the conventional stocks.

Added to this situation is the fact that some monetary policies espoused by many governments further shave the remaining trust some people on centralized financial system. This is making Bitcoin and other cryptos taking the role as the new safe haven...a title long held by the physical gold.

Right now, there is an "exodus" away from gold and stocks and the line is now on the doorsteps of Bitcoin. The thing is that Bitcoin is now the safe haven and at the same time this haven is also the heaven when it comes to earnings or ROI.

Thus, we now have Bitcoin as the new safe haven and the heaven of many returns! What a great twist of things...but this is not anymore surprising.

I will not call it an Exodus but there is not a single doubt in my mind that the recent increase in price comes from the fact that more people are turning their heads to bitcoin and are deciding to invest in it, if this becomes a trend then get ready folks because the price will skyrocket even harder than it has a t the moment.

[xypos]

In the past many years, gold has not been a stellar performer and some are even calling gold earnings as flat and bland, so to speak. This year, it can now be told that gold seems to be lacking the necessary shine and luster. As investors are looking for other ways to get the most return of their money, many are shifting to cryptocurrencies...away from the traditional gold and the conventional stocks.

Added to this situation is the fact that some monetary policies espoused by many governments further shave the remaining trust some people on centralized financial system. This is making Bitcoin and other cryptos taking the role as the new safe haven...a title long held by the physical gold.

Right now, there is an "exodus" away from gold and stocks and the line is now on the doorsteps of Bitcoin. The thing is that Bitcoin is now the safe haven and at the same time this haven is also the heaven when it comes to earnings or ROI.

Thus, we now have Bitcoin as the new safe haven and the heaven of many returns! What a great twist of things...but this is not anymore surprising.

Seems like it. I thik that people prefer the conenience and liquidity of bitcoin compared to the bulky nature of preciosu metals. Plus, everything is secured in lines of code and open source. It really gives people a true chance to secure their wealth.

However, i think that precious metals are still going to be thriving in the future. Gold and silver market cap is still very far beyond the current btc market cap.

This is a very big factor in this pump, imo. People want to move their assets into btc, because of the fact that governments can't reach them.

[magneto]

In the past many years, gold has not been a stellar performer and some are even calling gold earnings as flat and bland, so to speak. This year, it can now be told that gold seems to be lacking the necessary shine and luster. As investors are looking for other ways to get the most return of their money, many are shifting to cryptocurrencies...away from the traditional gold and the conventional stocks.

Added to this situation is the fact that some monetary policies espoused by many governments further shave the remaining trust some people on centralized financial system. This is making Bitcoin and other cryptos taking the role as the new safe haven...a title long held by the physical gold.

Right now, there is an "exodus" away from gold and stocks and the line is now on the doorsteps of Bitcoin. The thing is that Bitcoin is now the safe haven and at the same time this haven is also the heaven when it comes to earnings or ROI.

Thus, we now have Bitcoin as the new safe haven and the heaven of many returns! What a great twist of things...but this is not anymore surprising.

Interesting analysis. I think that precious metals stackers are still holding onto their stack because most of them are long term investors and not just there for the short term, but i've seen a lot of precious metals holders as well as stock traders diversify into bitcoin.

With the widespread media attention recently, i think there has been an influx of new bitcoin investors as a result. It is seen as the digital gold, that could potentially provide a better alternative for gold with more convenience.

This trend should continue into the future, as adoption continues to grow with btc. And this is ultimately what is going to be pushing bitcoin price up in the long run.

[Yuuto]

In the past many years, gold has not been a stellar performer and some are even calling gold earnings as flat and bland, so to speak. This year, it can now be told that gold seems to be lacking the necessary shine and luster. As investors are looking for other ways to get the most return of their money, many are shifting to cryptocurrencies...away from the traditional gold and the conventional stocks.

Added to this situation is the fact that some monetary policies espoused by many governments further shave the remaining trust some people on centralized financial system. This is making Bitcoin and other cryptos taking the role as the new safe haven...a title long held by the physical gold.

Right now, there is an "exodus" away from gold and stocks and the line is now on the doorsteps of Bitcoin. The thing is that Bitcoin is now the safe haven and at the same time this haven is also the heaven when it comes to earnings or ROI.

Thus, we now have Bitcoin as the new safe haven and the heaven of many returns! What a great twist of things...but this is not anymore surprising.

Gold and silver investors are probably one of the groups of people that have a very close set of ideologies to bitcoin. But i don't think that they would exit their precious metals investments just because bitcoin is going up.

I've seen a lot of stackers diversify into bitcoin, but none of them is giving up their entire stack to get into bitcoin. Which is pretty wise in my opinion since the price of bitcoin is pretty high, and imo precious metals are undervalued atm.

In future, this is going to be the trend. People transitioning from traditional assets into bitcoin, which will be viewed as a true store of value once enough people adopts it. Widespread adoption + anti-inflationary properties of bitcoin will mean that in the long run its value will go up steadily.

[Basmic]

The number of bitcoins will be limited and everyone can never have the coins. I think that the investor will be a part of their savings stored in bitcoins, and for cold storage will use the old, tested through the centuries gold.

[wxa7115]

In the past many years, gold has not been a stellar performer and some are even calling gold earnings as flat and bland, so to speak. This year, it can now be told that gold seems to be lacking the necessary shine and luster. As investors are looking for other ways to get the most return of their money, many are shifting to cryptocurrencies...away from the traditional gold and the conventional stocks.

Added to this situation is the fact that some monetary policies espoused by many governments further shave the remaining trust some people on centralized financial system. This is making Bitcoin and other cryptos taking the role as the new safe haven...a title long held by the physical gold.

Right now, there is an "exodus" away from gold and stocks and the line is now on the doorsteps of Bitcoin. The thing is that Bitcoin is now the safe haven and at the same time this haven is also the heaven when it comes to earnings or ROI.

Thus, we now have Bitcoin as the new safe haven and the heaven of many returns! What a great twist of things...but this is not anymore surprising.

Gold and silver investors are probably one of the groups of people that have a very close set of ideologies to bitcoin. But i don't think that they would exit their precious metals investments just because bitcoin is going up.

I've seen a lot of stackers diversify into bitcoin, but none of them is giving up their entire stack to get into bitcoin. Which is pretty wise in my opinion since the price of bitcoin is pretty high, and imo precious metals are undervalued atm.

In future, this is going to be the trend. People transitioning from traditional assets into bitcoin, which will be viewed as a true store of value once enough people adopts it. Widespread adoption + anti-inflationary properties of bitcoin will mean that in the long run its value will go up steadily.

Well, gold and silver are the best store of value available so it does not make sense to drop that for bitcoin, but bitcoin is a better investment, so people are choosing the safer alternative, hold most of your gold and silver but get some bitcoin just in case it goes up, because as we have seen recently, bitcoin is going to keep going up for the next years.

[Pearls Before Swine]

gold earnings

Gold doesn't have 'earnings'.  And I would argue that the gold market was on fire
right up until 2011, when it was $2000/ounce or so.  It's been flat ever since, although
in the past few weeks it hasn't been doing too badly.  Gold, so I've heard, isn't supposed
to be a money making investment; it's supposed to be a hedge against inflation, i.e., it
should keep its value, whereas fiat money inflates.

People are just chasing hot investments, and bitcoin has been one of the hottest lately.
Call it an exodus, whatever.  That's what's happening.

[centralbanksequalsbombs]

gold earnings

Gold doesn't have 'earnings'.  And I would argue that the gold market was on fire
right up until 2011, when it was $2000/ounce or so.  It's been flat ever since, although
in the past few weeks it hasn't been doing too badly.  Gold, so I've heard, isn't supposed
to be a money making investment; it's supposed to be a hedge against inflation, i.e., it
should keep its value, whereas fiat money inflates.

People are just chasing hot investments, and bitcoin has been one of the hottest lately.
Call it an exodus, whatever.  That's what's happening.

Sure but only some private investment funds, hedge funds, private partnerships, endowment funds are BEGINNING to dip tiny allocations into this new uncorrelated financial asset.

This year and next they will play catch up until Bitcoin (in some year long-time from now) normalizes to size of an invested financial asset with a market cap above $300B (current market cap at time of this writing is less than $80B).

And whether financial assets swell or waves of credit start to recede from these assets, there is an INCREASING amount of net investment INTO bitcoin EVEN AT recent "HIGH" PRICES.

Evidence of said recent phenomenon:

If the market were to collapse (modern-day markets pegging S&P 500 US Stocks index as a worldwide primer) - where will the flight to safety be?

Quantfunds (Quantitative investment funds that rely on mathematical models for investments) are infamous at crunching through vast arrays of data across all asset types to use combine investments of less-correlated assets together to acheive great investment returns while still being defensive during down markets.

What will hedge fund / quant-fund data show?

Since mid-June here were the performance of asset-classes when S&P 500 was down more than -0.2% in a day.



There were only 10 days since mid-June where daily drop of S&P exceeded -0.2%. The above compares how Bitcoin, Gold, Long Term US Treasury Bonds, US Commercial Real Estate (REIT), and Bullish US Dollar Index did on those same days.

The assets are represented by most established, regulated, liquid ETFs:
Gold  ticker: IAU - iShares Gold Trust
Long Term US Treasury Bonds ticker - TLH - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond
US Commercial Real Estate ticker - VNQ - Vanguard Real-Estate-Investment-Trusts ETF
Bullish USD index ticker - UUP - PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish

Where will the flight to safety be in terms of assets/investments?

There are already 3 large institutional investment vehicles for private investments, hedge funds, and quant-funds to get bitcoin exposure:
-XBT provider's bitcoin swedish nasdaq etf (priced in SEK currency) : bitcoinxb / bloomberg ticker: coinxbt [not real btc]
-Grayscale's bitcoin Over-the-counter markets fund : GBTC  [not real btc]
-Gemini's exchange's daily auctions of bitcoin buyers and sellers [real btc?]

This is outside of the many popular exchanges that exist for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies including p2p exchange localbitcoins. [real BTC]

Does it seem to be that private investors see an easy flight to safety into bitcoin for its investment portfolios?

These past 24 hours served as yet another example; global newslines ringing alarms of N.Korea missles flying past Japan as well as continued floods in Texas and Mumbai India - amidst all the trouble, alot of money had flowed into "safety" of Bitcoin to push it to new highs.

It seems this pattern has already been established - and funds will continue to flow into bitcoin when other financial assets falter?

Any comments? On Global assets and fiat?

[wxa7115]

gold earnings

Gold doesn't have 'earnings'.  And I would argue that the gold market was on fire
right up until 2011, when it was $2000/ounce or so.  It's been flat ever since, although
in the past few weeks it hasn't been doing too badly.  Gold, so I've heard, isn't supposed
to be a money making investment; it's supposed to be a hedge against inflation, i.e., it
should keep its value, whereas fiat money inflates.

People are just chasing hot investments, and bitcoin has been one of the hottest lately.
Call it an exodus, whatever.  That's what's happening.

True, that is a very common misconception, gold is not an investment, gold is a way to protect against devaluation, this was discovered as far as the ancient Greeks and gold has been doing that for thousands of years and yet people seem to still have mistaken ideas about gold.