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Author Topic: How many 30% plus falls have there been in the last 5 years?  (Read 320 times)
grumpygit
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August 31, 2017, 11:01:55 PM
 #1

Having a busy night tonight doing a little Bitcoin research. Smiley

Looks like tomorrow I am going to take a slightly bigger risk than I normally do with high risk investments and up my bitcoin stake.
Just wanting to know how many 30% plus  falls has there been in the last 5 years, if anyone can help?
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karasuri
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August 31, 2017, 11:28:05 PM
 #2

i know that btc always grow up and never fall, but it interesting me too now
d5000
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August 31, 2017, 11:47:35 PM
 #3

30% in what timeframe? Daily, monthly, yearly?

From what I remember, the biggest crash days from 2013 onwards were:

- April 10, 2013: about -60% (the big crash from about $260 to about $120)
- December 6/7, 2013: about -25-40% depending on the definition (from $1100 down to ~$830, but had lows under $700)

I don't remember other days where BTC lost more than 30% per day. Even the January Crash in 2017 was less than 30% in a single day (the March crash, a.k.a. "ETF crash" slightly may have surpassed it), and the June 2016 crash (the "halving crash") was even smoother, but more sustainable because the highs were not reached again until late 2016.

For longer timeframes, look at https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD

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ArticMine
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September 01, 2017, 03:08:38 AM
 #4

For the really interesting research start with the old mtgox markets back to June 2010. There are some very interesting crashes. here is a good starting point. Adjust the date to examine the bull and bears in more detail.

2010 from the start of trading on MtGox  https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2010-01-01zeg2010-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

2011 Bull followed by a brutal bear https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-01-01zeg2011-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

2012 Pirate at 40 desperately tires to suppress the price. Crash in August when Pirate finally blew up followed by the set for the short squeeze in 2013 https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2012-01-01zeg2012-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

2013 Lots of fun and the death of MtGox (another short bites the dust) https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Enjoy.

I started buying Bitcoin back in October 2011 catching the end of the bear market. The first part of 2012 was a great time to buy take delivery and hold as Pirate built his massive short position. The best way to squeeze a short is to take delivery.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
alyssa85
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September 01, 2017, 04:07:35 AM
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I started buying Bitcoin back in October 2011 catching the end of the bear market. The first part of 2012 was a great time to buy take delivery and hold as Pirate built his massive short position. The best way to squeeze a short is to take delivery.

Who was Pirate?

ArticMine
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September 01, 2017, 04:40:24 AM
 #6


I started buying Bitcoin back in October 2011 catching the end of the bear market. The first part of 2012 was a great time to buy take delivery and hold as Pirate built his massive short position. The best way to squeeze a short is to take delivery.

Who was Pirate?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.0
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/nz7dy8/the-man-behind-bitcoins-45-million-ponzi-scheme-earns-lenient-sentence

He actually started in November 2011 close to the bottom of the 2011 Bitcoin bear market after Bitcoin had been falling against USD at a rate of ~8% per week. He offered 7% per week on borrowed Bitcoin and figured he could make 1% on the spread. The short position developed into a Ponzi as he kept borrowing and selling. Then he gets fitted for an orange jumpsuit.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
grumpygit
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September 01, 2017, 06:43:25 AM
 #7

Thanks Guys, I knew about a few of them back in the early days and where as many of you have pointed out it always returned stronger. I am quite pleased as the big falls happened a while back now and there was not as many as I thought, and for a while I have had the feeling that bitcoin no longer has the volitilty it once had and when there is a fall it is not as severe.

I am sitting on another  handful of cash now and waiting over the next few days to jump in, in all honesty it will probably be today as I am in for the long term, just nice to get a good start with an investment, but Hey ho!, I am in for the long term.
I am now going past 15% with my bitcoin as my rule of thumb is normally no more than 15% with my fun risky investments and bitcoin is now looking less risky by the month., but still a risk I might add.
Higher Altitude
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September 01, 2017, 07:03:33 AM
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I was there in early January 2017 when it dropped around 30%. Now it's something else when you're daytrading crypto. But if you are holding the coin long-term this isn't really an issue. I think the €4000 psychological barrier is a good entry point. It will give you a point of reference for the future and once the price breaks through you're already in profit. In the future you won't be interested in how much you paid for your bitcoins, only how many of them you got!
grumpygit
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September 01, 2017, 07:06:36 AM
 #9

I was there in early January 2017 when it dropped around 30%. Now it's something else when you're daytrading crypto. But if you are holding the coin long-term this isn't really an issue. I think the €4000 psychological barrier is a good entry point. It will give you a point of reference for the future and once the price breaks through you're already in profit. In the future you won't be interested in how much you paid for your bitcoins, only how many of them you got!

Too be honest I am not going to be as frightened with a 30% fall as maybe I would be with other investments, though like I said it is becoming less likely by the month, but still very possible
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