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Author Topic: What the Early Adoptors Don't want you to know  (Read 7646 times)
malditonuke
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June 24, 2011, 11:22:45 AM
 #121

How about this for a novel argument - bitcoins has the seeds of its own destruction - instread of a level playing feild where everyone is encouraged to expand the concept to the real economy the early adopters use their wealth to pump up and hype the idea to speculators, dooming the concept and enriching themselves.  Is that plain enough for you?

The only thing plain about your argument is just plain dumb.

Without argument,your reply is more dumb..Truth craker has some solid points..There is too much speculation ongoing and it may likely crash and burst the system..

what solid points?

1 "bitcoins has the seeds of its own destruction"

that's bitcarrots


2 "instread of a level playing feild where everyone is encouraged to expand the concept to the real economy"

... instead of explaining something where everyone is encouraged to understand the concept to their real minds


3 "the early adopters use their wealth to pump up and hype the idea to speculators"

people told people.  OMG no way!?!?!


4 "dooming the concept"

doomed! doomed!  we're always doomed.


5  "enriching themselves"

increase in purchasing power = evil ...  got it.
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malditonuke
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June 24, 2011, 11:30:07 AM
 #122

There is too much speculation ongoing and it may likely crash and burst the system..

imagining something doesn't make it likely.
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June 24, 2011, 11:34:51 AM
 #123

How about this for a novel argument - bitcoins has the seeds of its own destruction - instread of a level playing feild where everyone is encouraged to expand the concept to the real economy the early adopters use their wealth to pump up and hype the idea to speculators, dooming the concept and enriching themselves.  Is that plain enough for you?

The only thing plain about your argument is just plain dumb.

Without argument,your reply is more dumb..Truth craker has some solid points..There is too much speculation ongoing and it may likely crash and burst the system..

Amusingly enough, bitcoin today is inflating at a furious rate, roughly 40% per year.  Clearly the rampant speculation of today has nothing to do with deflation.

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June 24, 2011, 02:37:40 PM
 #124

How about this for a novel argument - bitcoins has the seeds of its own destruction - instread of a level playing feild where everyone is encouraged to expand the concept to the real economy the early adopters use their wealth to pump up and hype the idea to speculators, dooming the concept and enriching themselves.  Is that plain enough for you?

The only thing plain about your argument is just plain dumb.

Without argument,your reply is more dumb..Truth craker has some solid points..There is too much speculation ongoing and it may likely crash and burst the system..

Amusingly enough, bitcoin today is inflating at a furious rate, roughly 40% per year.  Clearly the rampant speculation of today has nothing to do with deflation.

I'm sure there were plenty of naysayers during the California Gold Rush, somehow the people who ignored the steady stream of negativity still managed to do okay.

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Come by and check our list of potential startups today!
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June 25, 2011, 08:39:24 AM
 #125

For a fixed money supply, the rate of average price deflation depends on investment.  Let's say that investment drops to zero, and consumption = production.  There is no deflation at that point.

So if there is ever "too much" deflation, then investment will die down and drive down the rate of price deflation.
Why? More specifically, you seem to be assuming that the proportion of currency in circulation to currency squirreled away for another day will remain the same, and I see no reason why that should be the case with a deflationary currency.

Amusingly enough, bitcoin today is inflating at a furious rate, roughly 40% per year.  Clearly the rampant speculation of today has nothing to do with deflation.
Surely if anything it's deflating - the price of goods in bitcoins has decreased over the last year.

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June 25, 2011, 08:44:34 AM
 #126

Deflation is good for BTC holders. Prices are deflationary in terms of BTC because BTC goes up in value over time.

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June 25, 2011, 09:29:58 AM
 #127

Haters gonna hate!

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June 25, 2011, 09:46:08 AM
 #128

Deflation is good for BTC holders. Prices are deflationary in terms of BTC because BTC goes up in value over time.

Is it really deflationary? What's to stop other crypto currencies from being formed? Wouldn't that essentially be like printing more currency? Where is the scarcity?
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June 25, 2011, 09:52:45 AM
 #129

Deflation is good for BTC holders. Prices are deflationary in terms of BTC because BTC goes up in value over time.

Is it really deflationary? What's to stop other crypto currencies from being formed? Wouldn't that essentially be like printing more currency? Where is the scarcity?

Since bitcoin is open source, you could start your own chain of bitcoins right now and quickly mine lots of coins with a CPU. But it would be worthless since no one is accepting it.
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June 25, 2011, 10:07:42 AM
 #130

Deflation is good for BTC holders. Prices are deflationary in terms of BTC because BTC goes up in value over time.

Is it really deflationary? What's to stop other crypto currencies from being formed? Wouldn't that essentially be like printing more currency? Where is the scarcity?

Since bitcoin is open source, you could start your own chain of bitcoins right now and quickly mine lots of coins with a CPU. But it would be worthless since no one is accepting it.

If people started using it, don't you think there would be traction to start other chains of bitcoin type currencies?  It would take awhile for the momentum to build but I bet some of the lines would start taking off. People with mining equipment might diverge some of their resources to the new chains which yield better retruns. Speculators would want to get in on the ground floor at dirt cheap prices. Eventually the ball would start rolling.
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June 25, 2011, 07:12:08 PM
 #131

It would be interesting to see pairs like BTC1/BTC2 on the exchanges  Grin
Kind confusing after a while...
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June 25, 2011, 09:06:00 PM
 #132

most interesting post in the newbies section I've read so far   Shocked

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June 25, 2011, 09:41:43 PM
 #133

I found this cool pooled mining club that allows you to MINE WITHOUT RIGS!!
And helps you stay ahead of the difficulty curve!
The address is www.bit39.com
ref. # 0238-404
contact me if you have questions

Rigless pooled mining!  wwwbit39com  ref. 0238-404
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June 26, 2011, 12:04:16 AM
 #134

It seems to me that too many people are putting the terms Bitcoin and economy into the same sentence.

The entire point of Bitcoin is to seperate currency systems from economies.

All currency systems including precious metals and yes Bitcoin are a confidence game...nothing more...nothing less.

With paper money, transactions are validated by a mutual understanding of legality between the buyer and seller.

With precious metals, transactions are validated by a mutual understanding of value between the buyer and seller.

With Bitcoin, transactions are validated without knowing anything about the transaction.

Users of paper money are confident in the legality of their currency.

Users of precious metals are confident in the value of their currency.

Users of Bitcoin are confident that the transaction will be validated...nothing more.  What transactions are worth is an entirely seperate issue. 

The holders of any kind of currency should understand that the value of their transactions will change over time.  In fact, the longer you hold onto a currency the greater the risk that it will one day be worthless.

It's fair to comment on the perils of the Bitcoin economy however, to say that Bitcoin as a currency is any worse than paper money or precious metals is misleading.

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June 26, 2011, 12:10:09 AM
 #135

Truthcracker it is hard to tell from the present what will happen in the future. In the next 3 to 6 to 9 months we may be considered early adopters.


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smoothie
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June 26, 2011, 12:14:38 AM
 #136

What the hell is a Nebbie?  or a Nebie?

Also, how can anyone possibly look at these forums and pretend that deflation is a big secret that we are trying to hide from the masses?  You can hardly swing a cat in here without hitting a dozen threads on the subject, including the one and only sticky topic in the Economics forum.

Why are people trying to suppress the point that the system is unfairly designed?

How is it unfair that Bill Gates and his buddies got to buy microsoft stock when it was pennies to the dollar in respect to todays price of stock of that company or any company for that matter?

I am invested in silver. Yes I believe I got in early, not the earliest. But in the end I will likely sell my silver to someone who doesnt know any better that the market has peaked in silver and that they will be left holding the bag.

How are those two scenarios any different than bitcoin?

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June 26, 2011, 12:16:40 AM
 #137

most interesting post in the newbies section I've read so far   Shocked

Also maybe the most presumptuous. I gave an analogy of buying microsoft stock and silver (at a "unfairly" low price) and selling at a higher price. 

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Hunterbunter
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June 26, 2011, 01:53:14 AM
 #138

What the hell is a Nebbie?  or a Nebie?

Also, how can anyone possibly look at these forums and pretend that deflation is a big secret that we are trying to hide from the masses?  You can hardly swing a cat in here without hitting a dozen threads on the subject, including the one and only sticky topic in the Economics forum.

Why are people trying to suppress the point that the system is unfairly designed?

How is it unfair that Bill Gates and his buddies got to buy microsoft stock when it was pennies to the dollar in respect to todays price of stock of that company or any company for that matter?

I am invested in silver. Yes I believe I got in early, not the earliest. But in the end I will likely sell my silver to someone who doesnt know any better that the market has peaked in silver and that they will be left holding the bag.

How are those two scenarios any different than bitcoin?


In the case of Bill Gates and his buddies, they're not just rich because they "got in early", they got rich because they managed to get their operating system in front of 90% of the world's population. They worked very hard to achieve that and so, they deserve it.

Silver is tangible; it has inconvenience in hoarding a lot of it, and that's the price you pay to store substantial wealth in it. It took a *long* time for it to appreciate its value today.

Bitcoins have no great inconvenience to store, except maybe not having enough bank vaults available - where a wallet will ironically always have to pay the fees for existing there until it no longer exists itself. It also appreciates at a massive rate. Plus, it required extremely little real work to create - it is the most efficient "value token" ever created, by only requiring the cost of electricity. Hardware is moot, since it's cycles would have been lost anyway, and the use of which didn't require further human interaction. It is printing money that may have value in the future. The production of coins as a percentage of coins already produced *exponentially drops*, which means the value of further coins exponentially rises. This benefits the early far far far more than the middle and later, without doubt, and is a problem because BTCs are created as a trade of value token, but no value was created when they were made, so it's resorted to speculation on future value, and nothing more.

If somehow bitcoins survive 50 more years, a car might cost 300 nanoBTC based on the number of BTCs that exist. That means that 1 BTC would be the equivalent of 3.3 Million Cars. No one with violent means would accept anyone else having that much power in spendable currency....when there's not even the inconvenience of building the ship to carry it across the ocean...get in, torture, transfer BTC, kill owner, go spend. Don't think people won't do it - massive hacks already when it's worth $15-30/btc.

I don't think anyone has a problem with people taking risks and getting high rewards (in the case of microsoft). Those were high risk, lots of work, high reward, though. Bitcoins are low risk, with MASSIVE reward, and it won't gain mass appeal because of that. Which powerful business man, soccer mum for that matter, is going to accept a million sweaty kids having more "money" than them? A grand total of zero.

For the next 100 years, Bitcoins are a game of speculation. Even people accepting BTC for trades are forced to speculate on future prices. I love the idea, but it's not going to work as a currency in our lifetimes, so I feel a change of mind coming on.

EDIT:

I've noticed a few people around on these forums who also recognise this, and have tried to encourage a viable bitcoin economy to stop it failing. It seems they've all complained about not having much success, though. The global bitcoin stock exchange has like 5-6 floats on there, and half of them are for mining operations. The only other businesses putting through a lot of coins are exchanges and gambling sites (although that may be a random made up comment, because I don't really know, just that those are the only exchanges I see people saying they've spent money through).
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June 26, 2011, 02:05:11 AM
 #139



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSYKrihqkR8

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That which is falling should also be pushed.
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June 26, 2011, 03:10:28 AM
 #140

DisInflation is fabulous!

Deflation is terrible.  You cannot have an economy based on "tomorrow" prices will go lower. 


I don't know if bitcoin is deflationary or inflationary.  But, I'm watching.
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