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Author Topic: [Ann] Mine planning assistance  (Read 511 times)
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Poor impulse control.

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May 23, 2013, 11:13:56 PM

[cross posted from the Services board]

0. Introduction
I've recently had a number of requests to update the "ASIC choices" posts. As much as I'd like to, I just don't have the time to trawl the forum for information anymore. Getting "accurate" information for ASIC shipping dates and the amount of hashes to be shipped is difficult and time consuming, and since I'm now committed (my Avalon is due any day now *fingers crossed*)  I don't find myself spending as much time and energy on the Custom Hardware board.

Some readers have not yet committed themselves to purchasing an ASIC (or new GPU), or already have and are planning expansions. From these folk I've had requests to do up to date future network estimates, so there is still a need for these sorts of assessment. Further, I think that many of these folk have a better idea of when and how much manufacturers will be shipping than I.

So I thought I'd try to make it a service so that anyone can see what effect their assumptions about shipping dates and quantities would have on the network.

1. How to request an estimate
You can request me to run as many or as few scenarios as you want. Anyone making earnest plans for mining in the future will have at least two or more scenarios in mind - an upper and a lower estimate for hashrate changes due to more miners joining, new hardware being added, and GPU miners leaving. Others just want a single glimpse into the future out of interest.

For each scenario you'll need to list at what date you think changes to the network hashrate will occur, for up to ten changes. For example, here's a single scenario request from someone who wants to see what the network hashrate and difficulty will be until the end of the year given these estimates for hashrate changes:

ASICMiner:  23rd March to 31st December, 262 Thps added
Avalon batch 2: 6th June to 30th June, 600 * 67 Ghps added
Avalon batch 3: 1st July to 31st July, 500 * ( 67 + 85) / 2 Ghps added
Avalon batch 4: 1st August to 31st August, 300*45 Ghps added
Avalon chips: 1st August to 31st December, 20 Thps added
BFL: 15th June to 31st December, 2 Thps added per day
KnC: 15th September to 31st December, 1 Thps added per day
GPU miners leave: 1 November to 31st December, 25 Thps subtracted

I run the request and send back the sorts of information I provided in the "ASIC choices" posts, with explanations of the resulting charts and tables.

The cost per request is US $35 for a single scenario to be run, US $50 for two and US $25 for each additional scenario.

That's all there is to it. Email me your estimates at, and I'll email charts, data and an explanation of each. I'll email you back confirming that I can run the your request and provide you with a billing btc address, or ask for additional information or explain why a scenario can't be run.

If I can run your scenarios I'll also include a btc price that will be valid for twenty four hours. Once you've sent the btc to the billing address, please email me with the tx id of your transaction and I'll email you the results within 24 to 48 hours.

For examples and a how-to:

I hope you get a kick out of this service. Any time you think "I wonder what effect that will have on the network", send me an email!

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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